Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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This whole 'stamp duty' issue is really masking the inherrent problems in the market. The supply side and the speculative value of houses is ignored for now only to be re-visited when cowen doesn't change the tax system. Vendors will then have to resign themselves to the fact that without heavy discounting to attract cash-rich investors/home-owners they will soon realise just how illiquid an asset property can be.
 
whathome said:
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The Irish property market right now is like a drunk who decides to have three more whiskeys before driving home. He might just make it but I wouldn't want to be a passenger!
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i like that little anology.
 
whathome said:
In a property market, you get maximum reward when risk is low (high yields and low income multiples).
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I think it only seems that way with hindsight. Markets with high yeilds and low income multiples are normally that way for a reason - either they've just come through a crash or have a stagnating economy (or an economy that's just starting to grow). You're taking on all sorts of risks (high vacancy, unsustained economic growth) although looking back it might not seem that way. It's easy to look back at the last 20 years and think it was a sure thing, or that investing in Microsoft in the 80's was a guaranteed winner (in all likelihood people in 20 years people will look back at Google similarly, but right now I think there's still a lot of risk in that stock). Compare that with Ireland now - you're pretty much guaranteed good occupancy at high rents, full employment, superlative economic growth for nearly two decades... The risk has moved from market risk to other areas (supply etc).

whathome said:
The Irish property market right now is like a drunk who decides to have three more whiskeys before driving home. He might just make it but I wouldn't want to be a passenger!
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Fasten your seatbelt - you are a passenger!
 
Just to report on sentiment from outside the pale
I went to two open house viewing yesterday afternoon in Cork city. In both houses I found a lonely estate agent who was clearly delighted to see me (looks like I was their only viewer so far that day)
Open house viewings and weekend/out of office hours viewings are unusual here in any case so it seems that agents are getting desperate to get viewers in the door.
The agent was very keen to take my details so that they could get back to me today to see if I wanted to make an offer. I've been househunting for the last year or so and have never received such attention or interest from any agent. The tide is turning alright.
 
partisan said:
IIt's easy to look back at the last 20 years and think it was a sure thing, or that investing in Microsoft in the 80's was a guaranteed winner (in all likelihood people in 20 years people will look back at Google similarly, but right now I think there's still a lot of risk in that stock).
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You can't compare the movement of a property market with an individual technology company on the stock exchange.

By the way, I sold Microsoft stock in 2000 - maybe I should have sold it to you? :)

Take a look at the MSFT graph - so much for a sure thing! If you bought at the peak 6 years ago, you would still be down by more than 50% now.
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plaudit said:
I love this bit of the article:

Overall, he said that the market 'looks to be cooling towards the much sought after soft landing'.

They are trying to talk the guy down the stairs from the rooftop but will he jump?
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Is that the same soft landing that was promised for housing in the US? Or is this the new improved Irish version. I think it will probably be the Japanese model where the landing goes on and on and on........
 
Is a 33% drop soft?

Estate agents have slashed prices by as much as 33 per cent in order to get properties sold.
 
This is new to me; a guaranteed upper limit on a sales price: "FIRST OFFER OF €620,000 FROM SUITABLE BIDDER WILL SECURE THIS ATTRACTIVE 4 BED SEMI DETACHED HOME."

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Also, I noticed in yesterday's Tribune, that a property in Greystones sold at auction for less than its AMV. I don't have the paper to hand, nor can I find the result online. Anyone?
 
thejuggler said:
The agent was very keen to take my details so that they could get back to me today to see if I wanted to make an offer. I've been househunting for the last year or so and have never received such attention or interest from any agent. The tide is turning alright.
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Then you know what to do, shop around and take you time, take 12 more months and you might find the prices even cheaper.
 
Zarathustra said:
This is new to me; a guaranteed upper limit on a sales price: "FIRST OFFER OF €620,000 FROM SUITABLE BIDDER WILL SECURE THIS ATTRACTIVE 4 BED SEMI DETACHED HOME."

[broken link removed]

Also, I noticed in yesterday's Tribune, that a property in Greystones sold at auction for less than its AMV. I don't have the paper to hand, nor can I find the result online. Anyone?
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on daft for 625
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More than likely the initial sale fell thru and are anxious to sell. Noticed that a house on my street which eventually went sale agreed at end of summer is now back on the market. The market is all about timing and those selling now really should have cashed in earlier this year.
 
partisan said:
I'm not an accountiant, so I'm not 100% sure how to intrepret these, but do Grafton not also have 813.8 million in retained profits?
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The 813.8m figure is shareholders funds and that is not real money in the bank. It is just an expression of issued share capital and reserves (profits undistributed that may have been spent elsewhere such as materials and land)

Grafton was over half a billion in debt last year and that's NET DEBT. i.e. Debt minus cash deposits and short term investments.
 
Zarathustra said:
This is new to me; a guaranteed upper limit on a sales price: "FIRST OFFER OF €620,000 FROM SUITABLE BIDDER WILL SECURE THIS ATTRACTIVE 4 BED SEMI DETACHED HOME."

[broken link removed]

Also, I noticed in yesterday's Tribune, that a property in Greystones sold at auction for less than its AMV. I don't have the paper to hand, nor can I find the result online. Anyone?
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Thats nothing compared to this.
http://www.unison.ie/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1710770&issue_id=14797
"Buy a new three-bedroom home in one of the most idyllic settings in the country, with pristine lake water gently lapping just yards from your front door. The property will be fully furnished, and you will even receive free membership of the local and splendid 18-hole golf club. Just for good measure, the developer insists on throwing in a brand new motor boat, plus your own berth at the nearby private marina. And the price is . . . less than €300,000."

Anyway the good news for the bulls is all the homes sold out on launch day in June. The bad news is two of the contracts have just been returned to the developer and the properties are back on the market. So even though the properties are fully furnished Section 23 homes with a free golf membership and a 17 foot boot with a vaue of €16,500, 2 contracts were returned.
 
JayDub said:
Thats nothing compared to this.
http://www.unison.ie/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1710770&issue_id=14797
"Buy a new three-bedroom home in one of the most idyllic settings in the country, with pristine lake water gently lapping just yards from your front door. The property will be fully furnished, and you will even receive free membership of the local and splendid 18-hole golf club. Just for good measure, the developer insists on throwing in a brand new motor boat, plus your own berth at the nearby private marina. And the price is . . . less than €300,000."quote]

1. " We gave away an opel corsa" - brilliant perspective
2. Just over the road from Carrick .....where EAs will not take property onto their books - S23 here so you can see why
3. 2 years guaranteed rent.....
4. He is off to build more .....no worrys about supply
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treora said:
"And later that day back in the bat-cave": http://www.daft.ie/lettings/,
1,995 Houses To Let, 2,540 Apartments To Let, 130 Flats To Let and 71 Studios To Let. Nothing went down, no one has taken off the letting market and tried to sell. Creeping to oblivion in both the rental and sales markets.
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These figures aren't accurate. They vary wildly from day to day and include multiple entries. You need to click search and the total number of properties at the top of the page is the actual inventory
 
Debtwish said:
The 813.8m figure is shareholders funds and that is not real money in the bank. It is just an expression of issued share capital and reserves (profits undistributed that may have been spent elsewhere such as materials and land)

Grafton was over half a billion in debt last year and that's NET DEBT. i.e. Debt minus cash deposits and short term investments.
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Ah, that makes sense. So is there away to see their current cash balance vis a vis their interest payments on the balance sheet? Cashflow seems alot higher for 2005 at 206.5 million than 31.2 million in interest payments. Do you think if sales volumes drop they won't be able to make their interest payments? How far would volumes have to drop (and how fast) before that became a factor?
 
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