Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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topman said:
Not at all WHATHOME. I'm just making the point that homes are not viewed as commodities to be bought and sold when markets rise and fall by every one. This opinion is not represented on this thread.
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You're right, but you're only talking about yourself (and admittedly a fairly large block of Irish people), not everyone. For this group, if you had to pay 10 million to get a house in Darndale they would, because they absolutely have to own a house. It's verging on mania.

So yeah, when on this thread we shake our heads at the nonsense prices have reached, we realise a large part is driven by this need to own group who have no sense of value. While it is a large block of purchasers, it's not the only block however. Investors include some of the need to own group, but mostly they are driven by greed (nothing wrong with that) and most rational ones will exit the market when they see a peak. There's also plenty of people also who see owning versus renting as being a simple matter of economics.
 
Anyone not familiar with investment psychology might want to take a look at this short explanation (see link below).


[broken link removed]
 


ahh, but what is your rent compared to costs...

whats your return, adjusted for inflation of 3.2% and net return that is.
 
I have tenants leaving an investment property that I have recently sold (I have gone bearish) - they are finding it impossible to get a similar house to rent - its a standard 3 bed semi in West Dublin.
Their feedback is that every rental property that they view has alot of people interested or is already gone. They are very surprised and almost panicking.
Does anyone know whether this is an isolated case or is there a squeeze on rental accomodation.
 
There has been a large fall in the number of apatments/houses for rent in Dublin in the past few months. This is driving up rents and rental yields. The next DAFT report will show a large increase in Dublin rents over this year.

Friends of mine trying to rent at the moment are having huge trouble finding anything affordable in Dublin City Centre and any good apartments are being snapped up immediately. This is as big a fundamental change in the lettings market as we have seen in the sales market in the past while. Difficult to know what effect this will have on sentiment. If rents are increasing, it might delay investors from selling in the hopw that they will achieve better yields soon. Also, it will drive more people into the market if they can't find a place to rent.
 
10:30 Friday October 20th 2006

The Tanaiste, Michael McDowell, has denied suggestions of a rift with Finance Minister Brian Cowen over the issue of stamp duty on houses.
Last month, Mr McDowell said he was in favour of abolishing the tax.

However, Mr Cowen ruled out such a move yesterday, saying it was not his job to interfere in the housing market.

Asked about the matter in Dublin today, Mr McDowell said he was not talking about the budget, but was laying out stamp-duty proposals as part of the PDs' manifesto for the next election.
 
There is a huge demand for rental gear rents up 300 euros in 3 months in dublin 2.

I rented a place out in 3 hours yesterday.

Im bearish but explain that???
 
Humdinger said:
Does anyone know whether this is an isolated case or is there a squeeze on rental accomodation.
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Only to be expected. There are, literally, many thousands of investor landlords who have done exactly the same thing as you in the last 6 weeks. Put rental investment properties on the market. This will cause a short-term drought in rental supply and a corresponding hike in rents.

All depends on where the market goes from here. If prices collapse, a lot of landlords might decide to keep the house, dig in for the long-term, and put it back out for rent. Others will sell to whatever fool they can get to buy in a declining market - and some of those buyers will be investors, and it'll find it's way back to rental. Or some might be bought by FTB's, reducing rental demand.

Then you might have to factor in a possible dead-cat-bounce in April.

The whole market, sales and rentals, will be very chaotic for the next 9 months but will then settle into a long-term trend for 5+ years after that. Whether that long-term trend is the fabled Soft Landing of stagnant/slowly rising prices and stable rents; or a long real decline in prices and rents, is still under debate.

Personally I think we're looking at a repeat of the Japanese experience.
 

yes, I have heard similar stories ppl not being able to find suitable accomodation for rent, in dublin and in co. kildare.

Properties available on rent all over ireland have went down from 5000 to 4000 in last 3 months. (using daft data) Most of the drop is in co dublin though.
 
gearoidmm said:
If rents are increasing, it might delay investors from selling in the hopw that they will achieve better yields soon. Also, it will drive more people into the market if they can't find a place to rent.
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This is true but if as you say it has been ongoing for the past few months then the effect would already be stimulating the sales market to an extent. It's also likely to be short term as landlords dump their property on the market.
 
The number of houses on sale on DAFT has quietly slipped past the 21000 mark in the last day or so.
 
We saw the same impact when the Bacon reports were implemented - different dynamic of course but the bottom line was supply of rental properties fell dramatically and rents increased significantly.

It may take 6-12 months to work thru as mentioned in the post above - however, it looks like renters are going to be paying more.
 
room305 said:
You're mistaking price inflation with wage inflation. Only one of these matters when it comes to house prices.

Are wages going to increase at a rate of 7% per-year?
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Price inflation matters because the ECB makes interest rate decisions based on the the consumer price index. I know that the Irish rate of inflation may only be a 1% weight on their index, but there is probably some correlation with inflation in other European countries.
 
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We find our own new tenants for our rented house in Cork and when we advertised this week, were astounded at the level of interest in the room and were able to let it immediately. We've let rooms three times this year and as late as August, nearly needed to drag people in off the street to take a look at it - supply was so high and rents were falling. Since then, however, the rental accommodation supply has evaporated and rents will presumably rise accordingly.

I don't have to look far for the drop in supply, mind you. The landlord owns another house in the same estate which he has put on the market, after giving his tenants there notice to quit. Dumping investment property, indeed.
 
topman said:
FTB were holding out with the pronouncements of Michael MCDowell.Brian Cowan has now put these firmly to bed. Also ECB rates have gone up over the past year which has increased the proportion of purchasers income on repayments.
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This thread has repeatedly shown how asking prices were dropping and supply was increasing long before MMcD said anything.
 
room305 said:
You're mistaking price inflation with wage inflation. Only one of these matters when it comes to house prices.

Are wages going to increase at a rate of 7% per-year?
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You are correct and it's _not_ wage inflation! If inflation outpaces house price growth it reduces the cost of purchasing the asset. If you have money available to purchase the asset you could buy it at a reduced cost compared with the previous year. If you don't have the price of the asset available, a lender could lend it to you at reduced cost. The asset relative to other assets has become more affordable.
Increased inflation means you can sell the same goods and services (which includes your labour) at an increased nominal price. If you can't negoitate that increased price for the same services (and note, year on year, as you learn your productivity should improve so you are actually providing improved services) - you are being short changed by your employer. Why would you do business with someone who rips you off??
 
Humdinger said:
It may take 6-12 months to work thru as mentioned in the post above - however, it looks like renters are going to be paying more.
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A few people in my office are also having trouble finding suitable rental accommodation - in Dublin btw. Obviously investors are getting out (or trying to!).
I sincerely hope we get a dead cat bounce early next year - I'm selling my rental property once the current lease is up in Jan.

As for the ECB, UBS have changed their outlook based on ECB-member comments:
"We detect a change in tone from the most important members of the ECB Council that could signal a pause in rate hike [in 2007]"
 
Has anyone else noticed a big increase in the number of new property developments advertised the radio lately?
 

They probably should have upped it to 500, Lucan is now 239. Whats the betting it reachs 300 before Christmas.
 

Eirther you are very poor at explaining yourself or you do not know what you are talking about but this last post is nonsense.
 
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