Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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borrowed wealth is an oxymoron
debt is not wealth
 
Debtwish said:
Even if prices were to halve, you'd still only receive around a 5% gross yield. Doesn't sound like a killing to me.
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I calculated yields of around 7%, I guess it depends on the property and what assumptions you make.
 
partisan said:
That's odd, because I'm bear. House prices are overvalued, they are falling right now.
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Nobody is suggesting house prices are going to drop 50% tomorrow. Otherwise I would definitely buy in. Most likely they will fall some low double digit percentage next year followed by several years of stagnation (correction in real terms).

It is the knock on consequences of this that are the problem:

- Fall in employment
- Realisation of how much of our growth is fuelled by credit
- Reduction of wealth effect

Since people are not looking at house prices rationally on the way up, why would you expect them to do so on the way down? The market overshot and is likely to overcorrect. The problems come when we try to deal with that reality.

Since the vast majority of people seem unwilling to even countenance such a scenario, it doesn't bode well for a pain free market correction.
 
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€220k [broken link removed]
€185k
€180k [broken link removed]
€175k http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=150290

The price is all over the place on this one. I've seen it for sale at 225 and 200 also.
So as asking prices go, its dropped from 225 to 175 in a few months.
I'd say this is probably the first >20% drop.
 
room305 said:
Since people are not looking at house prices rationally on the way up, why would you expect them to do so on the way down? The market overshot and is likely to overcorrect.
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This is key as there is a herd mentality with the average punter at work. All this talk of 'soft landings' and 'new paradigms' is a bit sickening really at this stage and it fails to explain why private sector credit has increased by 28/29% each year since 2001. A correction has been soming for years. There's a tipping point here somewhere and it could be the daft reports or a couple of months sustained falls in the ESRI index. Combined with 25bps from the ECB in December and another 25bps spring '07
 
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/Morningrep/download/1018goodbody.pdf

Bank of Ireland sold 36 branches

"Press reports this morning (the property supplement) carry a story that BOI has agreed to sell its 36 branch portfolio for in excess of the €237.5m guide price. The initial yield on the guide price was 3.25%. It is unclear how much in excess of the guide it went for - there appears to be a range of buyers - however, note that we have already pencilled in capital gains to our core equity and Tier 1 calculations."

cute hoors.
 


Do as I say not as I do
 
Anyone noticed this ad on front of the Indo today. 50 worth of Brown Thomas vouchers when you spend 100 at Tile Style. Desperation I tell ya!
 
Bedsit said:
Anyone noticed this ad on front of the Indo today. 50 worth of Brown Thomas vouchers when you spend 100 at Tile Style. Desperation I tell ya!
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That promotion has run before a few years ago with an ad on the radio featuring some extremely gullible one kinda going 'quick! quick! lets get down and buy some tiles now.........'

As if the vouchers aren't factored into the tile prices!!!!
 
Since when have people actually put any faith in AMV or offers in the region of prices from EA's? Normally they are way under what they hope to sell for. It looks like this season they all decamped somehere and agreed to seriously over guide this season and see what happens-sure if no-one comes we can set a more realistic price time and time again until the actual value is set. Actual value being established by what someone is prepared to pay for it. As EA's have always pointed out they do not control what people are willing to pay for property. I note that many properties withdrawn at auction are either sold or under negotiatin fro a higher price than the AMV afterwards. So much for the much touted AMV being a true reflection of its value!

So until someone can give real examples of properties selling for less that the did previously all this talk of falling prices is somehat hard to establish.

Lest anyone ask-I am not an EA. They have had it easy for too long-anyone can sell property in a rising market-lets see them earn their money by actually using those much under used sales skills, and really persuade people to part with their hard earned money!
 
Arthur Daley said:
That promotion has run before a few years ago with an ad on the radio featuring some extremely gullible one kinda going 'quick! quick! lets get down and buy some tiles now.........'

As if the vouchers aren't factored into the tile prices!!!!
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Not as good as the next release of Adamstown apartments being "pre-wired for I-pods". We're a bit short of the free car / swimming pool offers yet but it's early days I suppose!
 
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Luternau said:
So until someone can give real examples of properties selling for less that the did previously all this talk of falling prices is somehat hard to establish.
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They have to sell them first though.
 
Luternau said:
So until someone can give real examples of properties selling for less that the did previously all this talk of falling prices is somehat hard to establish.
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So far, the only claim I've seen is that asking prices are falling. This is being read as a leading indicator of where the market may be heading - it's not being heralded as a crash in full flow.

The main point is that the soft landing is happening now - the trick is for the vested interests to maintain the current pricing regime rather than allowing it to develop into real falling prices i.e. a crash.
 
The thing was a speculative bubble. New entrants were attracted by the prospects of rising capital values. The prospects of rising values (now that we have 15% vacancy rates, rising interest rates, multiple foreign property honey traps and global economic concerns) are over. We now have to endure an acid test of fundemental value at some point of time in the future.
 
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