Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Since you haven't provided a link or the actual name of this report by the OECD I have to presume that this is the one that shows that the four countries with the highest probability of crashing in Europe are Denmark, France, Spain and Ireland (in that order based on OECD economic model).

Under Deutsch Bank's model they identified the property market in Spain and Ireland as being at the most at risk. They still have Denmark and France at a relatively high risk but taking factors such as the amount of fixed rate mortgages and the lack of supply in both those countries they are not deemed to be at such a high risk.

Neither report says that there is going to be a crash but they both clearly show where the risks lie. Contradictary?

NewMan said:
Obviously this doesn't sit well with the prevaling view here so you can choose to ignore it with off the cuff remarks questioning whether or not I have researched it.
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You still haven't showed me where these two reports contradict each other.
 
there has been no crash yet, it will be a while in the coming.

All property has done is plateaued....

inflation @ 3.2% and rates to hit 4% by mid next year. inflation going up and up...

Then things will start to get interesting.

Oh did i mention benchmarking,...wonder if the banks have factored this increase into the ability to repay loan with ftb's settling down, having weddings buying the suv for the planned kids and then the childcare.

PPl here like to refer to dermagraphics, and these dermagraphics would allude to families, working mothers, infrastructure,
now with rising costs, less taxable pay, lost competivness, reduction in tax take after meeting some of the benchmarking two (reckon some but not all will be met) and the restrictions on our ability to borrow, woefully bad infrastructure, american recession.

then prices will drop and stay down there.

If anyone is interested they should goolge "Kenysian Liquidity trap"...i know some of the economic peeps out there will come back saying rubbish,

BUT DO INTEREST RATES REALLY MATTER...or do they carry too much weight.

Eg: Japan, 0% interest with average 4% inflation. real -estate ddin't budge upwards.

anyone wonder why and does anyone think we will have the same with our asset bubble.
 
Debtwish said:
It is also bad news if you are a bank shareholder - widespread introduction of these products will surely erode margins across the board. The Banks will be under serious shareholder pressure to cut costs and improve productivity going forward.
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NIB may help the upper part of the market as it will drive down mortgages costs.

IF NIB really follow thru it will be very costly for existing banks as NIB are really trying to cherry pick the richer type and these folks are reasonably financial savvy and will walk if their banks do not match.
 

Indeed, could this be NIB aggressively trying to risk manage their loan book by improving the quality rather than the quantity, as has been the case in the past?

I've also wondered about AIB's rather aggressive strategy in attracting deposits - again, are they trying to improve their net position in order to protect shareholder value in a downturn?
 
I'm renting at the moment, I'm paying €850 a month in rent, my neighbour pays over €1,800 a month in mortgage payments and rising. I've worked it out that if I put that €1,000 that I am saving by renting into a pension account I will retire in 35 years with a pension fund of €1,500,000. Plus I get 42% tax relief on the €12,000 which I put into the pension account, which works out at €420 a month in tax relief, so I'm really paying €430 in rent every month. Looking at these figures, what sense does it make to buy a home in the current market.
 

Because if you don't buy you will miss out on that juicy capital appreciation! Property only ever goes up!

Pension accounts are for whimps.
 
You need to get a valuation to determine LTV for the NIB product. If most of the bears on this thread are right and prices continue falling off, then even less people (particularly those who bought in last few years) will qualify for LTV <80%.

Generally I would imagine FTBs are very price sensitive to their first deal so would opt for low 1-2 year discount variable rates etc. What happens to the FTB when these discount periods lapse is another thing........
 
Inventory levels getting even worse.
Swords now exceeds the myhome search result limit of 150 properties.
 
whathome said:
Inventory levels getting even worse.
Swords now exceeds the myhome search result limit of 150 properties.
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I've been keeping an eye on Swords and for what it's worth my experience is that prices have stopped rising, where you might expect them to attract a premium due to the impending metro announcement. I know in my development there hasn't been a flood of supply turning up, more a steady stream. Other real bellweather areas for a crash are places like Lusk, Ongar, Lucan, Firhouse, Greystones.
 
whathome said:
Inventory levels getting even worse.
Swords now exceeds the myhome search result limit of 150 properties.
Click to expand...

It was sitting at 146 yesterday.

I've been watching Swords and prices have been pretty much static for the past two months or so. They're not rising, even as new properties are coming on stream.
 
whathome said:
Inventory levels getting even worse.
Swords now exceeds the myhome search result limit of 150 properties.
Click to expand...

Dear Mr. Myhome.ie,

Please increase your results default upper limit of 150 to a more user-friendly figure so avid voyeurs of your wonderful site can more easily see true inventories for particular areas.

Regards

Fredser
 
Houses are not traded like shares so are not liquid......Liquid assets like shares can lose 10-20% of their value in one day in a slump. ..A housing correction is far slower and more subtle.......like the proverbial slowing down and turning round of a supertanker....so don't anyone expect miracles overnight.
 



Its worth remembering that we have (or had) a speculative bubble not driven by sustainable fundamental demand. Bubbles are ephemeral delicate things, we no longer have a bubble market, the bubble has gone.
 

It sounds like a lot but €1,500,000 lump sum ( if you could get your hands on all of it ) invested at say 4% in 35 years time is 60k a year . The present value of 60k in 35 years at 4% ( rate of inflation ) is about €15200 ie your 60k in 35 years is equivalent to about €15,200 today.......out of which you pay €850 per month in rent or €10,200 per annum out of an income of about €15,200 which you will still be paying every year until you croak it . Your numbers don't look too good to me from my cursory analysis.
 


Not necessarily. Illiquid assets have gapping up and gapping down issues. Take bonds for instance, I have an account with a major market maker for bonds of all types (in Canada). I’ve had the experience of them not being able to sell me a particular issue, or only at a very high price, because they cannot find a seller on the day. On the ISEQ many shares “gap around” on very very thin volumes. Property is arguably the most illiquid of all asset types and the market price at any given point is never entirely clear.

With our small market and tendency for extreme herd mentality it’s conceivable that buyers may literally ‘go on strike’ at existing prices. The process of price discovery on the way down may be very very different from the way up.
 
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