Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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1. I am thinking of renting somewhere new in the new year. For a 1 bed city centre place with a view that is now €1200 how little do you think that I should ask for it then €1050-975? The only thing is usually a few wishful 'new Irish' arrive in the New Year, so I might wait until Feb.

2. The only really motivated political grouping in Ireland that is not financially-vested is the Irish mammy. Tell her that Gilroy's balanced argument wants all the money that should go to her children [Education/Health/Social Welfare/Childcare allowance] will end up in the pockets of developers/specuvestors via VAT rebates, stamp duty reductions and their FTB debt laden younger siblings. And the airways will be alive with the sound of ...

3. Sarah W - Most people put as much as they could scrap by with into the SSIAs due to the rewards. They want a return to the lifestyle that they scarified now that it has matured. Either that or child care costs/larger pensions beckon.
 
Sarah W said:
However I am NOT likening the current Irish property market to the UK one of the early 90's. That was due to three specific events; the cutting of interest rate relief from per person to per property (but with a 4 month lead in period), the availability of 110% low start mortgages and interest rates jumping from 11% to 15% in one day (the actual day I closed on a purchase!).

I'm neither a bull or bear, BTW.

Sarah

www.rea.ie
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Hmmm. I'm not sure I completely agree with your analysis of the UK market, I'm afraid although I was a mere punter rather than a broker. ;)

Affordability went off the rails was the real issue - as I've argued before the absolute interest rate is only part of the equation. The only constant you can look to is affordability (share of mortgage payments from net salary). And that broke through 40% in the UK 88/89. For Dublin, the figure is now almost 40%. And IO mortgages feed these changes through linearly in a different fashion to conventional repayment mortages which were more common 15+years ago.
 
Neffa said:
You should see the looks of astonishment I have had in work from showing people the "falling prices" blog. Once this becomes better understood, then people will get very wary.
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I wouldn't even show that to some of my colleagues who have recently dipped their toes in the market. I would probably just get the usual shrug of the shoulders and a nonchalant dismissal I bet.
 
CelloPoint said:
Shhhhhhh!!!! Someone's gonna have a lot of work to do counteracting that report if the general public get wind of it!
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That report is actually reasonably favourable. We come second rather than first when all risk factors are included - one of those factors is "Surprise Growth" risk, which is the measure of a change in economic growth. As the best performing economy our GDP growth rate has the greatest potential to fall (not really a surprise!). Another risk measure we score highly on, is our fondness for variable (or tracker) mortgages over fixed rate mortgages. Fixed rate mortgages are less risky, but you pay a premium for that safety net. All it means is we are more comfortable with risk than people in other countries.
According the report our loan-to-value rate is the lowest, affordability here is better than the average for the last 20 years (and data points at 1990 and 1998). On the bearish side increases in house prices have massively outpaced rents and we're looking over-supplied.
 
Maine said:
1 St Margaret's Park, Malahide, Co. Dublin

On the market 6 months - the price has just been dropped 100k. During the spring peak initially think they were looking for around (probably above) 1.3m hence real fall is bigger, sellers clearly getting nervy that they may be still selling come April 07. Its been listed on myhome at 1.2m all summer.

[broken link removed]

1,200,000

[broken link removed]=

1,100,000
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I remember that property first going on sale in the spring at excess of 900,000 euros and due to bidding, it went sale agreed at over 1,100,000. The sale obviously didn't go through. Interesting that the house was then on sale at excess the first sale agreed price. I think after it went sale agreed, that a nearby house made over 1,300,000.
 
[broken link removed]=

I posted about this house before 2 months ago when the guide price was a ridiculous 980k. Now reduced to 950k.
 
Richard Says:
September 26th, 2006 at 2:27 pm

Just to add a wee bit of petrol to the fire…

A small birdy has told me that an as-yet unpublished report *may* reveal a very pronounced decline in property prices over the last 3 months.

Cant vouch for the authenticity of this *cough* but it might be worth holding off if you are considering a purchase.
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http://www.janinedalton.com/blog/archives/2006/is-the-irish-property-market-about-to-crash/

Could this be the DAFT report that, some seem to suggest that the DAFT report is overdue?
 
[FONT=verdana,arial]Cash exodus leaves FDI at minus USD22bn[/FONT]
[broken link removed]

Looks like the growth in FDI is well and truly over. Better start increasing efficiency to retain those jobs going foward.
 
3 bed detached house in Bray reduced from 900k to 875k a few weeks ago, now on myhome for 795k, don't know how to post links, sorry!
 
Is there any good news for the Irish economy. Would Ireland have any growth if construction was factored in at the EU average.
 
Debtwish said:
Good to have you on board Sarah W.

Can I ask how the mortgage market is going at the moment?
(I'm not being sarcastic, I'm genuinely interested)
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There's not been the traditional October jump in enquiries - although September was a good month - but there is a steady flow of people looking to trade up, remortgage and invest. I do think the FTB's are holding off for the budget though (rightly or wrongly).

Sarah

www.rea.ie
 
fatmanknows said:
[FONT=verdana,arial]Cash exodus leaves FDI at minus USD22bn[/FONT]
[broken link removed]

Looks like the growth in FDI is well and truly over. Better start increasing efficiency to retain those jobs going foward.
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The yanks lifting the tracks and taking their train set home? what will we play with now? I know Monopoly.
 
There are alot of posts quoting reductions in asking prices. This is not an indication of the market. EA's have just got it wrong. It is worth noting that alot of these reductions are on properties sold by small/new to the market EAs. The large houses not selling at auction are also red herrings. These are not houses that have to be sold. They are people trying to cash in;and when they don't get the greedy sum they give up. When houses start selling for less than the AMV I will see it as a market indicator, alot of people on this thread are anticipating and meeting other bears also living in a possible, indeed very possible future - but it is not here yet nor are any hard indicators.
 
Doris said:
There are alot of posts quoting reductions in asking prices. This is not an indication of the market. EA's have just got it wrong. It is worth noting that alot of these reductions are on properties sold by small/new to the market EAs.
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Really? This must be the first year we've seen new or small EA's in the marketplace so, because reductions in asking prices sure as heck haven't been a feature of the last 5 years!

I haven't seen anyone trumpet a full-blown crash in progress - most are reading these signs as leading indicators.
 
conor_mc said:
Really? This must be the first year we've seen new or small EA's in the marketplace so, because reductions in asking prices sure as heck haven't been a feature of the last 5 years!

I haven't seen anyone trumpet a full-blown crash in progress - most are reading these signs as leading indicators.
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I agree this isn't a crash by any means.
 
Doris said:
There are alot of posts quoting reductions in asking prices. This is not an indication of the market. EA's have just got it wrong. It is worth noting that alot of these reductions are on properties sold by small/new to the market EAs. e]

Most of the reductions that I have looked at have come from Sherry Fitz and to a much lesser degree DNG.

Paying up to 40% of your income is one thing when you are getting a buzz from rising prices. If that stalls and you are paying 45%, as mortgage rates go up, of your income its gets alot more mundane. IMO we may "go berlin" and get lots of FTBs who choose to rent and live rather than buy and exist.
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Just want to return to something which didn’t seem to get much publicity or attention (or at least not as much as should have). The Daft Q2 report provides the following figures for house prices in 2006 (Base: 2005 = 100) (July’s figures were preliminary)

January 104.7
February 108.3
March 109.3
April 110.5
May 107.8
June 106.6
July 105.4

This process shows that house prices were already dropping in May (before this thread was even a glimmer in miju’s eye) and had dropped almost 5% by July (if there were seasonal reasons for this they don’t show up in 2005). At that rate of decrease (assuming it didn’t speed up with the negative publicity/virtual capitulation by EA’s of the autumn season), the prices paid in the latter months of 2006 will be lower than the average price of 2005.

This means that significant capital losses are already here for those who bought this year and this is quickly spreading into those who bought last year

A small birdy has told me that an as-yet unpublished report *may* reveal a very pronounced decline in property prices over the last 3 months
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The recent speculation about the “as-yet unpublished report” (both on this thread and in a recent newstalk interview) would seem to suggest that the already apparent trend may even have accelerated. While 3 months decline does not a crash make, 6 months of declines wiping out nearly two years of gains does start to look ominous.

The idea that the multiple reductions in prices are simply EA mistakes is I have to say laughable.
 
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