Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[room305]

I think a return to 2001 levels is likely alright, so how far the market falls depends on how far it continues to rise.

Of course it might not fall at all in nominal terms but simply stagnate with a long drawn out correction in real terms (similar to what occured here in eighties).

 

[SteelBlue05]

Why not? How much does a comparable house cost in Helsinki, Manchester, Stuttgart?

I dont know, can you do the research?
How do our salaries compare to those cities?
Demand for property?
Population profiles?
Peoples attitudes to buying and renting?
Incentives offered to FTB's?
Incentives offerred to Investors?
Emigration?
GDP?

If you really know what you are talking about then you will realise there are a multitude of interacting factors that are very difficult to understand and more importantly predict.

This is all just tiresome speculation.

 

[Glenbhoy]

I would have to agree. Worth pointing out that AFAIK, Helsinki, Manchester and Stuttgart have a lot more going for them (in terms of good planning, transport, economic prospects) than Dublin does at present.

Well, want to enlighten us?

 

[SteelBlue05]

I would have to agree. Worth pointing out that AFAIK, Helsinki, Manchester and Stuttgart have a lot more going for them (in terms of good planning, transport, economic prospects) than Dublin does at present.

More sweeping statements with no substance.

 

[Guest126]

I am currently buying a place in Paris with a net yield approx double the net yield in Cork.

That is not speculation.

I do not see what is so great about Cork that property here should command such a low yield, perhaps somebody could explain, is it the €3 take away coffee perhaps?

 

[bearishbull]

I dont know, can you do the research?
How do our salaries compare to those cities?
Demand for property?
Population profiles?
Peoples attitudes to buying and renting?
Incentives offered to FTB's?
Incentives offerred to Investors?
Emigration?
GDP?

If you really know what you are talking about then you will realise there are a multitude of interacting factors that are very difficult to understand and more importantly predict.

This is all just tiresome speculation.

By all measures Dublin property is vastly overpriced,current high prices are a temorary phenomenon, i could elaborate further but this has been done to death on these threads over the last year.

 

[walk2dewater]

My sentiment has turned ever so slightly bullish on property in the last little while. There's a serious chance we're heading for a massive spike in prices. The Sheeple are going to rush to BUY NOW before var rates make property "unaffordable"; higher ECB rate means can't borrow enough, can't lock-in a fixed rate etc.

I say property price go 10%+ 2nd half of 2006.

**************

of course, many many jumbo mortgage holders are financial equivalents of the "walking dead"

*********************

Meanwhile I'm making an absolute killing on my sterling puts... ECB and BoE meet Aug 3...

 

[room305]

I get the feeling there is going to be another spike too. I really couldn't figure out what the REAs were doing, almost calling a market top. Then I thought about it and applied the old maxim - whatever a REA is saying, they're saying it to sell more houses.

So I'm expecting much talk about soft landings and reasonable capital appreciation for the next month or two to assuage investors. Meanwhile, FTBs and trader-uppers hold off hoping against hope that prices will come down to reasonable levels.

Instead what happens? Prices continue to rise. Even if developers have to offer ridiculous incentives, the great Irish property train will rumble on inevitably. FTBs who held off will realise they have been duped once again by "dem der economists" who don't understand that Irish property market is "different". In a mad rush they pile in and prices spike crazily.

I agree with W2DW that there is a "race against rates" element here as well. Get in at whatever cost then fix for a year or two is becoming the standard motto. Like high oil prices people are acting as though any rate increases will be a temporary thing, with fixing rates almost a "get out of jail" card.

I was thinking of selling but now I shall probably hold off for a year and see what happens.

 

[ivuernis]

My sentiment has turned ever so slightly bullish on property in the last little while. There's a serious chance we're heading for a massive spike in prices.

Is this this the scenario that was discussed here before where at the peak
or just before even the last bears begin to doubt themselves and change
their minds

 

[walk2dewater]

Is this this the scenario that was discussed here before where at the peak
or just before even the last bears begin to doubt themselves and change
their minds

Hey, I'm the grand-daddy of bears around here!!! But I move with the facts. And facts say, no inventory build up, and no seismic shift in public sentiment. The "doom-mongers" will have egg on their faces one more time.....I say, current worries will be replaced with massive outpouring of BUYING. We're "going japanese", hang on tight....

Alas, there's several other juicy fish to fry....

 

[Guest107]

If prices come down to the point where rents will offer a decent yield on the mortgage required to purchase the property then I'll be buying a second property! We will be needing about a 40% drop in prices though for that to happen.

about that

 

[room305]

Is this this the scenario that was discussed here before where at the peak
or just before even the last bears begin to doubt themselves and change
their minds

When I posted that story about Isaac Newton and the South Seas company bubble, the reply was:

So basically when W2DW announces that he has just bought, it's time to get out??

 

[miju]

.I say, current worries will be replaced with massive outpouring of BUYING. We're "going japanese", hang on tight....

going japenese sure This post will be deleted if not edited immediately i think we're practically a colony at this stage it's gone completely out of control.

interesting what you say about no obvious change in sentiment i personally beg to differ as the original poll on bullish -vs- bearish that started this thread and this second poll on what direction prices will go (as well as the severity of rises / falls

 

[Duplex]

I guess its impossible to read a market riven by mania. What rational person would have thought that tens of thousands of people would buy investment properties this year when; yields were infinitesimal, rents static, housing output at record levels and interest rates started rising from historic lows?

The only thing that I have reached absolute certainty about is that its a bubble. And bubbles always pop.

 

[thewatcher]

I guess its impossible to read a market riven by mania. What rational person would have thought that tens of thousands of people would buy investment properties this year when; yields were infinitesimal, rents static, housing output at record levels and interest rates started rising from historic lows?

The only thing that I have reached absolute certainty about is that its a bubble. And bubbles always pop.

I would agree it's definitely a bubble,as for the other 2 boys saying there could be another possible spike before the crash,i think the government has finally woken up and while nothing will be said in public the screws are about to be put on the banks.

As for inventorys not building up,i have been kind of looking for a property for the last 3 or 4 months and in the supposed slowdown period i have seen inventorys double in some area's !.

 

[ivuernis]

current worries will be replaced with massive outpouring of BUYING. We're "going japanese", hang on tight....

I have a feeling too that current bearish sentiment could die come September and buyers will get back on the train for another while but I can't see where prices can rise by much more than max 10% in the next 12 months.

 

[thejuggler]

A crash or (price correction as the vested interests will call it) can only really occur when interest rates go higher. When base rates are around 4-5%, prices should fall back to 2000-2001 levels. 250k for 3 bed semi in West Dublin. I would imagine the prices in the trade up market will only be marginally effected.

Do you mean that regardless of a crash the cost of trading up (e.g the price difference between a 3 bed semi and a 4 bed detached) will remain the same? I thought that the gap would narrow as oveall prices fall.

I'm thinking of trading up myself but don't know whether its better to move now or wait until the crash happens. Perhaps it will be impossible to sell a 3 bed semi when the crash happens.

 

[SteelBlue05]

Do you mean that regardless of a crash the cost of trading up (e.g the price difference between a 3 bed semi and a 4 bed detached) will remain the same? I thought that the gap would narrow as oveall prices fall.

I'm thinking of trading up myself but don't know whether its better to move now or wait until the crash happens. Perhaps it will be impossible to sell a 3 bed semi when the crash happens.

I think you need to take all these ranting comments with a big pince of salt. The point is no one knows what will happen.

 

[walk2dewater]

The point is no one knows what will happen.

The point is some of us are better at considering and assigning probablities to future outcomes than others..... and some of us don’t even know what the preceding means….

 

[Calina]

Do you mean that regardless of a crash the cost of trading up (e.g the price difference between a 3 bed semi and a 4 bed detached) will remain the same? I thought that the gap would narrow as oveall prices fall.

I'm thinking of trading up myself but don't know whether its better to move now or wait until the crash happens. Perhaps it will be impossible to sell a 3 bed semi when the crash happens.

It depends on where the house is. The problem is not, I think, that it will be impossible to sell a three bedroomed semi (assuming we're talking house and not duplex apartment that is) but that it may be impossible to sell at the price you want.

That's going to be the issue for a lot of sellers - they will find it difficult to compute that if they want to sell stuff in a falling, dying market, then they will have to drop their prices.