Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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What if it is not the banks doing the foreclosures but the international hedge funds to which they have sold the mortgage debts?



I imagine 'Constitutional Protection' is the same regardless of who's doing the foreclosing...?
 
This notion that the constitution could be used in such cases is a complete red herring. The protection afforded the family has it's roots in the "Catholic ethos" of the original constitution writers.
Has nothing to do with private property. The case wouldn't have a leg to stand on.
 
It would be interesting if a case went to court on this constitutional point where a repossession was sought by the mortgage holder.

It sure would! But you have to assume that any Credit Analysts worth their salt would have done the research on the Irish RMBS sector and would know that repossessions in Ireland are incredibly uncommon.

But the point is that the ultimate bondholders don't really come into the equation - the banks would have to repackage the debt (at higher levels)and call/redeem the existing bonds. So the big hedgefunds don't care - it's the Irish banks (and therefore Irish consumer) that will take the hit.
 
Ain't no Lawyer but I don't believe the Family Home protection covers a home from repossession by any mortgage holder. I do believe it . covers the home from being used as security unbeknownst to one of the spouses. I also believe that the security on a family home would not be valid unless the mortgage holder proved that the mortgagees obtained independent legal advice before allowing a charge upon their home.

In the years to come I think there will be many many unavoidable repossessions of homes - owner occupiers and investments alike.
 
This notion that the constitution could be used in such cases is a complete red herring. The protection afforded the family has it's roots in the "Catholic ethos" of the original constitution writers.
Has nothing to do with private property. The case wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

You could also argue that under protection of the family "as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society", they do not actually need to own a house, just have a dwelling to live in. I'd say that Rent Supplement and RAS would cover the states obligations as set down by the constitution.
 
Ain't no Lawyer but I don't believe the Family Home protection covers a home from repossession by any mortgage holder. I do believe it . covers the home from being used as security unbeknownst to one of the spouses. I also believe that the security on a family home would not be valid unless the mortgage holder proved that the mortgagees obtained independent legal advice before allowing a charge upon their home.

In the years to come I think there will be many many unavoidable repossessions of homes - owner occupiers and investments alike.

I'm not saying that banks can't repossess - of course they can, but they are incredibly reluctant to since there could be some kind of challenge through the Courts. They would much rather reorganise/restructure the mortgage than repossess the house.
 
It sure would! But you have to assume that any Credit Analysts worth their salt would have done the research on the Irish RMBS sector and would know that repossessions in Ireland are incredibly uncommon.

But the point is that the ultimate bondholders don't really come into the equation - the banks would have to repackage the debt (at higher levels)and call/redeem the existing bonds. So the big hedgefunds don't care - it's the Irish banks (and therefore Irish consumer) that will take the hit.


Am I reading too much between the lines here BigM; are you hinting that credit analysts may have 'gone easy' on risk weighting for Irish RMBS debt? not factoring in our cultural and constitutional abhorrence of being put off the land, so to speak.

BOI seem quite adamant that they'll turf you out if you don't come up with the juice, maybe its hot air. This issue could be dynamite.
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A property ain't much of a security if it can't be realised without some mega challenge in Court. Our legal system is very similar to that of UK - and they repossesed left right and centre in the early ninties there. Unfortunately, we'll soon get to see with regularity how the system works here.
 
Given our historical antipathy to evictions I wouldn't like to be PR person for the bank that starts mass repossessions. I could see things getting very nasty in terms of civil unrest.
 
Given our historical antipathy to evictions I wouldn't like to be PR person for the bank that starts mass repossessions. I could see things getting very nasty in terms of civil unrest.


In this country? Given our historical apathy to everything I doubt it!
 
Ain't no Lawyer but I don't believe the Family Home protection covers a home from repossession by any mortgage holder. I do believe it . covers the home from being used as security unbeknownst to one of the spouses. I also believe that the security on a family home would not be valid unless the mortgage holder proved that the mortgagees obtained independent legal advice before allowing a charge upon their home.

In the years to come I think there will be many many unavoidable repossessions of homes - owner occupiers and investments alike.

I believe you're right here. Everyone taking out a mortgage is warned that their home might be at risk. I'm not a lawyer either but I'm sure lenders don't state this on all documentation for the good of their health.

Nevertheless, the last time I discussed this with a solicitor, I was told that it takes about 2 years to actually repossess a family home and lenders prefer not to do it. Again, not for the good of their health, but because of the long, drawn out process!! Investment properties are much more clear cut.

If the market crashes here then there will be repossessions wholescale, I believe. When this happened in London it was catastrophic for many but as usual, good for some, who deliberately set out to buy houses that had been repossessed...held on to them for 10 years and made a killing.
 
Am I reading too much between the lines here BigM; are you hinting that credit analysts may have 'gone easy' on risk weighting for Irish RMBS debt?

BOI seem quite adamant that they'll turf you out if you don't come up with the juice, maybe its hot air. This issue could be dynamite.
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Not at all - some of my best friends are credit analysts!! Although sometimes I wonder if they actually do anything more than simply read Moody's and S&P reports.

And the link makes it clear that the banks prefer to restructure the loan rather than repossess. Of course, if the market tanks as much as some on this thread expect and people end up with 50% negative equity they might indeed opt for option (b) and head off to Oz/US...

(b) Repossession of a property may come about by voluntary agreement with the lender, through abandonment of the property by the borrower without notifying the lender, or by Court Order.
 
Nevertheless, the last time I discussed this with a solicitor, I was told that it takes about 2 years to actually repossess a family home and lenders prefer not to do it. Again, not for the good of their health, but because of the long, drawn out process!! Investment properties are much more clear cut.

Exactly my point - I've discussed this with several solicitors/barristers and they all reckon that banks would steer well clear if at all possible because of the timescales involved (not because of the bad PR - who likes banks anyway?).
 
I think that if anyone thinks that an Irishman or woman will meekly be put out of their homes on the instructions of the agents of 'foreign interests' is either a foreigner or a very, very, very poor student of Irish history. The depth of feeling, the historical resonance imagine it.
 
Exactly my point - I've discussed this with several solicitors/barristers and they all reckon that banks would steer well clear if at all possible because of the timescales involved (not because of the bad PR - who likes banks anyway?).

A reluctance to foreclose would put bank earnings under even more pressure in a downturn. I wonder if short activity is building in Irish bank shares as the signs of a weakening property market are becoming more prevalent.
 
well, the SBP ran a good few articles, only one of which didn't feel a soft landing was on the cards; that being the one from Leeson, who admits in the article that his skepticism is based on being bitten in the UK in the 80's. Hardly 100% relevant. in the UK in the 80's, 2 things happened which imploded the market, neither of which is happening here:

- interest rates were 14.5 - 15.5%. In our celtic Tiger terms, thats 7 times the interest rate from last year, or 4 times the current. Yet everyone thought propery couldn't lose. Would you take a 100% mortgage at 15%? I doubt it.

- 120% mortgages were commonplace

when it busted, people we so indepted, some just handed their hse keys to their bank

I hear both these arguments a lot in Ireland as part of "it's different here" pitches. I disagree with both of them.

On the first point, the absolute rate of interest is pretty irrelevant imho. It is all about affordability, not the absolute rate. Yes, UK rates were at 15% at the end of the crash period, but affordability rather than interest rates per se was the problem -affordability was going above 40% of net income. The prices themselves relative to income were lower than we have in Ireland today but because the IR's were so high, the net income percentage was high.

As many commentators have reported, we are now at the limit of affordability in Ireland, even though our base rate is 3.25%. So you could argue we are in a worse position, not a better one.

Second, 120% mortgages were certainly not readily available to everyday punters. 100% mortgages were but IO and other "exotic" forms of financing were not commonplace. BTL was also very rare.

My recollection is that 100%+ mortgages were marketed after the crash so people could "buy" their negative equity and move out of their homes.
 
Exactly my point - I've discussed this with several solicitors/barristers and they all reckon that banks would steer well clear if at all possible because of the timescales involved (not because of the bad PR - who likes banks anyway?).

I'm sure this attitude might change though if more and more stopped paying. In the main lenders prefer to negotiate...might let you pay interest only, or take a 'holiday' on payments until your finances stabilise. In the former case, they're making a profit on the interest anyway, and in the latter, they keep adding interest ,which lengthens the term of the loan. In either scenario they can't lose. If they have to repossess and it takes 2 years, presumably they are paying for the money they lent you in the interim period i.e. for the length of time it takes them to actually repossess the house! They get it all back when house is sold of course but I'm sure they'd prefer money in the coffers now rather than later!

Banks might have a real problem if too many stopped paying at the same time i.e. in a housing crash.
 
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