Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Mind you, amazingly, he (and the others) still called a "soft landing". Ger Gilroy did not ask him on how the Daft reported growth of 14% in Q1; 6% in Q2; 0% in Q3 suggested we were heading for a soft landing. Their business correspondent said he would buy anyway.
 

They have a soundbite from this on their hourly news. The edited clip can be heard again on newstalk at 12pm.
 
The Comical Ali Syndrome is thrivin' !

Dublin house prices set to spiral (upwards)

The CIF said the decline will make it impossible to deliver enough new houses to meet demand and keep prices from spiralling further.
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Housing Shortage
 

[broken link removed]

From the newstalk website:

Ger Gilroy Biography
Ger Gilroy has been with Newstalk from day one as Sports Editor and presenter of ‘Off the Ball’. A native of Athy, County Kildare, Ger has contributed to The Sunday Business Post, Village magazine and the Guardian. He also contributes a monthly column to the Irish Property Buyer magazine.

So he may have a VI in ramping (although not having ever bought Irish Property Buyer I don't know the tone of his pieces but I'm guessing they are not bearish)
 
StoppedClock said:
So he may have a VI in ramping (although not having ever bought Irish Property Buyer I don't know the tone of his pieces but I'm guessing they are not bearish)
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Wow - well spotted. I always thought that he sounded biased. Sometimes it sounds like a love-in between him and vested interest "economists" being interviewed. In an interview with Austin Hughes recently, he was coming up with his own reasons as to why the market could not dip.
 
Brilliant Whizzbang - very funny!

(p.s can you post a step by step on embedding pictures in posts ? )
 
Remix said:
The Comical Ali Syndrome is thrivin' !

Dublin house prices set to spiral (upwards)



Housing Shortage
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Worse still:

While [Wicklow] is one of the few areas to have increased planning permissions in the past year, many of these are for low density developments, including some of just four houses per acre of land. This fails to comply with sustainable development levels which state that an acre of land should provide hosing for ten families, the CIF said.

These places don't even have bathrooms ?
 

Dear god almighty! I find it really hard to believe that an elected official in such a position can be so out of step with the workings on the ECB and economics in general.... then again should I really be surprised?
 
Remix said:
(p.s can you post a step by step on embedding pictures in posts ? )
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Don't think it is possible to embedd a picture into the post. Looks like the only option is to link it to another server using a URL. Leaves open the possiblity of exposing your true identity
 
plaudit said:
Eur, Gbp an Chf falling on good numbers from US.
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I meant to follow up on this yesterday. This fall happened during the ECB rate hike announcement. An Irish economist was predicting recently that the Euro would strengthen with rising rates and weaken inflationary pressure (and increase house prices). I just found it ironic that the Eur would fall during the rate hike, especially since the economist was writing the article for Lisney estate agents (suprise suprise)
 
Well Im technically a property owner - have an apartment abroad - but since I returned to Dear Old Ireland at the turn of the millennium I 've chosen to rent - Do I qualify?

Well anybody who has read my posts over the last while both on this thread and the one on Irelands economy would accurately judge me to be a Bear when it comes to the Irish Property market . To qualify that :Im a bear in the long run - I firmly believe and I've yet to see any evidence to the contrary, that the Irish economy has been built on a certain type of quicksand - the sort that looks dry on top, yet when it breaks- you will start sinking slowly by degrees and it will stick like glue. However that said I still think that there is a bit of steam left in this mad stampede yet.

Why?
Its going to make more than a few .25% rises in the interest rate to overcome the manic fixation Irish people have with houses and land.
It is really impossible to underestimate this phenomenon. Most of the posters here see property as just another economic good/product and can view it dispassionately and critically if it isnt delivering the returns they are expecting just like it was shares or any product you could mention. The vast vast majority of the population of this country see things quite differently - and it will take a long long time for people to see property as anything but a sure bet.

Why - to borrow and paraphrase from that Old Duran Duran jingle :
" Destroyed by RTE I hate to bite the hand that feeds me So much information -The pressure’s on the screen to sell you things that you don’t need- It’s too much information for me"

Most folks are completely bewildered by the amount and number of financial products available to put your money into now. The pension debacles and dotcom meltdown have made most allergic to investing in these categories for the moment. Property and in particular housing has an attraction all of its own - because they can touch it and feel it , you dont need an actuary with a PHD from MIT to explain it to you and most importantly ! - you can show it off to your friends, neighbours and rivals as a show of your status, power sexual prowess and virility ya di ya di ya etc etc. never, never, underestimate the power of sex in getting in the way of making rational decisions!

Many people believe they understand property -" its bricks and mortar and I can improve it myself" - it cant vanish away on flickering screen like shares and equity prices and sure people will always need houses etc etc . The number of people who hold this view and have a house or apartment as their "pension" is quite staggering. Economic illiteracy in Ireland is at epidemic levels and peer pressure ," if everybody else is doing it why shouldn't we" is the biggest driver of the property bubble. As PC Fields that famous American of words put it "There is nothing worse than watching your neighbour get rich".

Dont knock it tho - If everybody really looked at every item they buy as to its economic functionality and were honest as to how it would rationally benefit their lives the entire economy of the western world as we know it would collapse - bad news for everyone who doesnt grow food or make practical clothes for a living.

With the above underpining - throw in more exotic financial products from the Drug dealers ( the banks) and their cheerleaders (the entire Irish economist intelligensia with a few honorable non bought exceptions) , increasingly attractive offers from the developers who will anxious to offload as much inventory as possible in the most profitable way possible , the fact that over 80% (including mine) of the SSIA loot hasnt been released yet and a government desperate for reelection around the same time - their only hope after the shenanigans of the last few weeks is to bribe us big time - This could be the biggest since 1977 - FF couldn't give a monkeys what they do to the economy as along as they get to keep their mercs after next may or june , expect to see lots of money thrown down the bottomless pit of the public service, state bodies etc etc and stamp duty to be twiddled with.
The Government, Banks and a large percentage of the economy have too much riding on house prices and the housing market to simply let the market decide on its own - once the election is out of the way, higher interest rates , A US recession which is looking like it will be nastier and nastier by the day, will finish off the job

So to summarise - I see prices slowing , maybe small and I mean small, reduction to prices areas that even the most blinkered bull would have to say were nuts - but as long as interest rates stay under 4% and economy is primed for an early summer election - I really dont see much happening - after that ,say this time next year - all bets are off.

A Few other observations while Im at it.
Im just back from a tour around eastern Europe and Israel as a vanguard unit of the next phase of the Irish Manufacturing industry - exporting jobs - outsourcing - from what I can see there wont be many companies who manufacture and source manufactured goods from Irish suppliers left in 10 years time - it will be drip,drip drip - I have been appointed to turn off the light and put myself on the last boat out!

With my foreign collegues laughter ringing in my ears over Ireland property extravangsa - they all think we have gone stark raving bonkers -and Israelis are pretty good at the ole investment game - Went to ploughing festival in Tullow when I was down home at the weekend - the biggest tent - The one for all the folks selling foreign property to the asset rich welfare depending agricultural core - absolutely unf*****gbelievable - it was packed and they seemed to be doing a roaring trade - lets hope the farmers are better at picking good properties than they were at picking food products to produce and try and sell at a profit!!! - yeah I'd be real confident about that! - hope the EAs explained to them if the investment goes tits up that they can't sell the apartment into intervention!!!!

Later Folks

EDO
 
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Quality post as always Edo. Yeah, I've often mentioned that we could learn alot from looking at the Israeli economy but given the heavy anti-US sentiment that abounds it tends to wonder into political debate territory so I've stopped mentioning it.

Couldn't believe that foreign property tent. Plenty of people wandered in thinking it was the HQ! By all accounts there were 11 luxury penthouses in Dubai sold so those farmers are probably as adept at property purchases as they are at free market economics.
 
Yeah i noticed his attitude to property over last few weeks and was aware of his writtings in Irish Property Buyer but have'nt read any of his articles. I emailed him last week to criticise the show for having so many bulls when there was evidence prices were falling in likes of lucan, he didnt reply or change anything in the show, but what would you expect from a commercial radio station who get loads of advertising from estate agents and foreign property companies. In fairness though i have heard some bearish sentiment on newstalk but its outweighed by vast amount of bullish ones and even the breakfast show(or a segment of it) is sponsored by a property company selling and renting stuff in florida( where the bubble burst is already well under way!). Earlier in the week he was discussing property with someone on the show and at end of article he made a remark along lines of "so, everything in the proeprty market will be fine going forward" with a tone of it being gospel or at least trying to make the listeners beleive this was a certainty, in facts he sounded like a recent purchaser trying to pursuade himself and everyone else that he did the right thing!
 
I walk through this place on the way to work every day. One 'for sale' sign went up every 5 days for the last month. This is a nice microcosm of specuvestor, young debt ridden Irish. Built about 6 years ago with 55 terrace/semi-d's, 50% clearly rented (mostly 'new Irish'), 25+% pram pushers [appear to be owner occupiers]. At least 10% clearly vacant and 13% of the houses are up for sale (only 6 of the 7 are listed on myhome).

Map this property: [broken link removed]=
 
room305 said:
Quality post as always Edo.
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I agree with Edo's economic arguments, but to be honest I think parts of his post smacked slightly of "it's different here". Edo you must remember that this "we have a special bond/need for property" is sold just as much to the americans, as to the Irish.

room305 said:
Yeah, I've often mentioned that we could learn alot from looking at the Israeli economy
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While it is true that they do really well at innovation and have many internationally listed companies, you cannot compare like with like here because Israel is what I would term a "freak economy". Take away the $6 billion a year that they reieve in 'aid' from the US, and then you have a more level playing field where you can compare like with like.
 



Dear God. That's just scary. A woman with pretensions of being Finance Minister who clearly has absolutely no clue how the economic cycle works. Or indeed the first notion about inflation, interest rates, growth, relationship between.

Then again, I doubt very many of the 166 in the Dáil would say anything different to Ms Burton, they all seem spectacularly clueless on economic matters.

I personally dislike Pat Rabbitte, so wasn't going to be voting Labour anyway, but after that comment they've no chance of even a low preference.
 
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