Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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StoppedClock said:
Do you believe we don't have an oversupply now?
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In a speculative bubble, supply isn't so much the issue, over-demand is. As in demand for instruments of capital appreciation, not demand for homes.

If undersupply was the issue, then house price growth wouldn't be speculative by definition.... it'd be a genuine price rise due to lack of supply (think 1996-2001).

Even if we were perfectly supplied for genuine home occupation, demand for speculative instruments of capital appreciation warps the supply/demand curve. Remove that element of demand (i.e. lack of further cap. apprec.) and in theory you get a return to fundamental values.... not accounting for sentiment/herd mentality.

Incidentally, I think we are oversupplied. We'll see what shakes out of the tree once capital appreciation begins to disappear.
 
conor_mc said:
In a speculative bubble, supply isn't so much the issue, over-demand is. As in demand for instruments of capital appreciation, not demand for homes.
.
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You hit it on the head. The current housing bubble (and slow motion burst) was not based on sound economics but on frenzied buying. Creeping interest rates and increasing supply is only part of the problem.
 
phoenix_n said:
You hit it on the head. The current housing bubble (and slow motion burst) was not based on sound economics but on frenzied buying. Creeping interest rates and increasing supply is only part of the problem.
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Balanced supply and natural home-ownership demand would give us a return to fundamentals.

Over-supply the market, and we'll probably overshoot the mark.
 
conor_mc said:
In a speculative bubble, supply isn't so much the issue, over-demand is. As in demand for instruments of capital appreciation, not demand for homes.

If undersupply was the issue, then house price growth wouldn't be speculative by definition.... it'd be a genuine price rise due to lack of supply (think 1996-2001).

Even if we were perfectly supplied for genuine home occupation, demand for speculative instruments of capital appreciation warps the supply/demand curve. Remove that element of demand (i.e. lack of further cap. apprec.) and in theory you get a return to fundamental values.... not accounting for sentiment/herd mentality.

Incidentally, I think we are oversupplied. We'll see what shakes out of the tree once capital appreciation begins to disappear.
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Very well put conor mc. Worth restating that we have falling rental values in this market. Domestic service sector inflation is running at about 6%, rental inflation at 1.5% (approx), this is in the face of stellar house price inflation and immigration. Its mania with a large dollop of bonkers for good measure. :(
 
ivuernis said:
Not exactly on topic but certainly related to our current plight...

[broken link removed]
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This does not surprise me. The mentality of this country is very short term, and we only seem to care about money. "Progress" is when a new shopping centre is built.

The idea of actually thinking about the future or doing something which is seperated from commercial interests is alien to us...

For example, I run a few hobby type businesses which will never make money and I don't care if they make money, but most Irish people cannot understand that I do this because I want to not because I want to make money...
 
conor_mc said:
In a speculative bubble, supply isn't so much the issue, over-demand is. As in demand for instruments of capital appreciation, not demand for homes.

If undersupply was the issue, then house price growth wouldn't be speculative by definition.... it'd be a genuine price rise due to lack of supply (think 1996-2001).

Even if we were perfectly supplied for genuine home occupation, demand for speculative instruments of capital appreciation warps the supply/demand curve. Remove that element of demand (i.e. lack of further cap. apprec.) and in theory you get a return to fundamental values.... not accounting for sentiment/herd mentality.

Incidentally, I think we are oversupplied. We'll see what shakes out of the tree once capital appreciation begins to disappear.
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Exactly. Expect to see this analysis reproduced in the sunday papers
 
redo said:
Exactly. Expect to see this analysis reproduced in the sunday papers
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I just hope they give me (and AAM!) a mention for it! :D

As a matter of personal interest, what kind of a drop do people expect in what I would consider to be the segment of the market that will hold up best, 3-bed semi's in good areas inside in the M50? Specifically I'd be interested in the Drumcondra/Collins Ave/Griffith Ave/Glasnevin area, where houses are currently around the 550/600k mark.
 
conor_mc said:
I just hope they give me (and AAM!) a mention for it! :D

As a matter of personal interest, what kind of a drop do people expect in what I would consider to be the segment of the market that will hold up best, 3-bed semi's in good areas inside in the M50? Specifically I'd be interested in the Drumcondra/Collins Ave/Griffith Ave/Glasnevin area, where houses are currently around the 550/600k mark.
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I would expect properties in the 550/600k range in that area, Collinswood for example will drop to about 350/400k. This would produce a gross yield of about 5-6%, the point where a professional investor might step in and buy. Where property bubbles have burst in other markets, it's always been the professional investor that saves the market, buying when they see value.
 
conor_mc said:
I just hope they give me (and AAM!) a mention for it! :D

As a matter of personal interest, what kind of a drop do people expect in what I would consider to be the segment of the market that will hold up best, 3-bed semi's in good areas inside in the M50? Specifically I'd be interested in the Drumcondra/Collins Ave/Griffith Ave/Glasnevin area, where houses are currently around the 550/600k mark.
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Good location! ;) (i live close to griffith ave) , looks like the metro will be stopping at Griffith Ave as well as near collins ave(they added an extra mini-route between central and eastern routes which looks like eastern and central will be merged for metro line) , so this should add value in long term even if prices drop significantly in short term, although its close enough to city centre for taking bus or bike in no time.

Just heard AAM's Brendan on radio with matt cooper about property market slowing and cooper uttered words "bubble" and "bursting" in same sentence! interesting.
 
bearishbull said:
Good location! ;) (i live close to griffith ave) , looks like the metro will be stopping at Griffith Ave as well as near collins ave(they added an extra mini-route between central and eastern routes which looks like eastern and central will be merged for metro line) , so this should add value in long term even if prices drop significantly in short term, although its close enough to city centre for taking bus or bike in no time.

Just heard AAM's Brendan on radio with matt cooper about property market slowing and cooper uttered words "bubble" and "bursting" in same sentence! interesting.
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Was that :

"There is no bubble and so bursting is impossible, BUY"

or

"The bubble is bursting, SELL SELL SELL!!!"
 
StoppedClock said:
Was that :

"There is no bubble and so bursting is impossible, BUY"

or

"The bubble is bursting, SELL SELL SELL!!!"
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He was also talking to a mortgage broker about borrowing capacity reduced and prices falling. Near the end of the interview there was a poping noise in the studio and cooper says something like "oh thats the sound of a bubble bursting"
 
bearishbull said:
He was also talking to a mortgage broker about borrowing capacity reduced and prices falling. Near the end of the interview there was a poping noise in the studio and cooper says something like "oh thats the sound of a bubble bursting"
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That won't go down well with the EA fraternity. There seems to be a continous feed of these stories emanating from the media. I still think it isn't fully sinking in the average Joe yet, I still think it will take 3-6 months for the new reality to take hold
 
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1004/housing.html

how can this happen without job losses??

and then: http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1003/sfa.html

so by putting two and two together does it not equal RECESSION???


and gonna throw this in for good measure!!

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1003/economy.html

dont we need those people because didnt we factor them in when figuring out how many houses we need to build per year??
will people keep coming if the building industry is slowing down i.e making people redundant?? and if they wont come for that what will they come for ? manufacturing jobs? no thats in recession?

what the hell is going on ? the country has been ruined as far as I can see? The roads are in bits the health system is a joke the police and army are underfunded despite being both overstretched we have a tiny navy a tiny air force. Private businesses have not been helped enough. People cant afford houses. If we are/were such a rich country then why are the aforementioned the way their are plus much more i cant think off the top of my head.
WHAT DID WE DO WITH ALL OUR NATIONS WEALTH?


oh and Europe IS going to use Dublin as an example of how NOT to do things : http://www.blather.net/zeitgeist/archives/2006/10/dublin_worstcase_scenario_in_e.html
 
Hearing more optimistic comments from a smaller EA today. He assures that the market is still intrinsically strong and that we are merely taking a step backwards.

What he did'nt say was that we might be standing with our backs to the edge of a cliff.

What I want to know is where is all this 'Wall of maturing SSIA Mula' we were told about at the start of the year that was going to drive the donkey on ?.

PS New car sales down 12% last month. So it does'nt appear to be there either ! Gosh, where could it be ?
 
interesting price drop in portobello from 850k to 740k

original cached -

now - [broken link removed]
 
fatmanknows said:
What I want to know is where is all this 'Wall of maturing SSIA Mula' we were told about at the start of the year that was going to drive the donkey on ?.

PS New car sales down 12% last month. So it does'nt appear to be there either ! Gosh, where could it be ?
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paying off the wall of debt?

or send of to Sunny Beach Bulgaria?
 
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