Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Such chancers. How about starting a new thread "Current public sentiment towards Estate Agents?"
 

Similarly, if both of you go with DNG they will overprice both - so maybe €420k for one house and €440k for the other. They then flog the cheaper of the two on the basis that it is well priced compared to other property in the area. Selling the house for €440k merely entails getting another client on the books to price at €460k.

As the saying goes "everyone is a genius in a bull market".
 
But if we enter a bear market then the guy holding the house for sale at €460K loses hard as the other for sale houses in the area drop to 440, 420, 420, 400......
 
daveirl said:
NewsTalk had Jim Power from Friends First on this morning. He said we were experiencing the 'soft-landing' and the current oversupply would work it's way through the system over the next few months and then we'd reach equilibrium.
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Yes but for those who bought with the sole intention of gaining on appreciation which is not now going to realise , they will want out as the 'soft landing' is already biting into the already made 'profit' in the current PPR equity.

As it happens everywhere watch the first strains on 1/2 bed apartments on outer ring of Dublin.
 
I am going to make a simplistic argument / theory, please pick holes in it as ye so wish.


75000 people arrive here each year, lets say 3 per house, they need 25000 houses. 50000 people do the leaving cert per year, lets say 2 per house, thats another 25000 houses = 50000 houses per year needed. Old people die and free up houses, some people still emmigrate, so lets say that frees up 10000 houses, so we need 40000 new houses per annum at current immigration rates, but already we are building 90000 houses. We are building 40000 houses more than needed.

Am I missing something or is this a reasonabe picture of the situation?
 

While your figures are fairly rough I would concur, hence the growth from 140,000 to 230,000 vacant houses since last census.
 
plaudit said:
Am I missing something or is this a reasonabe picture of the situation?
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I think demand has been calculated at between 45k and 60k a year. The building of 90k+ houses are year was supposed to make up for a shortfall and return us to a state of "demand/supply equilibrium".

How a shortfall in housing could exist with so much vacant property around is anybody's guess.
 

My guess is that its't people claiming it is their PPR while living with parents/otherhalf in a more reasonable location. Hoping that by not renting it out they will avoid tax when the sell it.

I guess it is possible people may own multiple places like this and are hoping to avoid tax on sales as they were never rented?

Does the revenue know if you have multiple houses or do you have to disclose it to them? Is the system smart enough to identify if someone is claiming to have 3 PPRs?
 
whizzbang said:
Does the revenue know if you have multiple houses or do you have to disclose it to them? Is the system smart enough to identify if someone is claiming to have 3 PPRs?
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Doesn't really matter if the system is smart enough now, it's an easy enough system to build so even if you escape now you will be caught in the future. I'm sure Revenue will get around to it when they need the money.
 
It's some deceleration from first or second quarters to third quarter. Thing is a soft landing is (as many have pointed out here in last year) impossible. As soon as prices stagnate for a few quarters those that were only in it for capital appreciation will seek to exit as they see no capital appreciation and no pricing power in rental market.When these speculators exit they wont be holding on for best price and as prices begin to fall due to distressed sellers panic sets in and a negative downward cycle begins. Also if there was such an undersupply of property in dublin why are rents not much higher than they are now(relative to income,rents 5 years ago etc)??
Sentiment is everything in any market and the sentiment has most definetely changed significantly in last 4 months. The CEO of Toll brothers in USA commenting on recent house price falls said it was all down to sentiment as the economy is still doing very well over there.
 
plaudit said:
75000 people arrive here each year, lets say 3 per house, they need 25000 houses.
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If there's no jobs here, they'll stop coming. What happens to those already here who work in construction?
50000 people do the leaving cert per year,
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A figure that is decreasing every year
We are building 40000 houses more than needed.
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Assuming inward migration of 80000 (?) a year continues. Imagine what happens if that stops.
 
bearishbull said:
The CEO of Toll brothers in USA commenting on recent house price falls said it was all down to sentiment as the economy is still doing very well over there.
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I think he is dreaming if he thinks the US economy is in a healthy shape but he makes a good point. Negative sentiment causes buyers to disappear from the market or hold out for lower prices.
 
room305 said:
I think he is dreaming if he thinks the US economy is in a healthy shape but he makes a good point. Negative sentiment causes buyers to disappear from the market or hold out for lower prices.
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I'd disagree, unemployment is very low, incomes rising, stock markets at all time highs. there are clouds on the horizon but for the time being consumer sentiment is still strong in US and seems little economic reason for house prices to fall.
 
Been speaking over weekend with a couple of contractors involved in the new residential build sector. Telling me to expect to hear of an increasing number of lay offs over the next few months. Lay offs have already begun and there is already a serious fall off in the number of new residentials started or expected. We are way past the peak of job creation in the sector and likely to be at the start of a bad downturn for the construction sector. Not quite sure which sectors are going to mop up the new arrivals in the country.
 
hmmm said:
Doesn't really matter if the system is smart enough now, it's an easy enough system to build so even if you escape now you will be caught in the future. I'm sure Revenue will get around to it when they need the money.
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Absolutely agreed, I'm just wondering are there people out there who "know a fellah who did this and the revenue never caught him" so they may try it themselves.

I think the revenue see a lot of these dodgers as their "Rainy day fund", same with unregistered landlords.
 
Check out this [broken link removed] I was amazed at the asking prices and the size of the houses compared to Ireland.
 
bearishbull said:
I'd disagree, unemployment is very low, incomes rising, stock markets at all time highs. there are clouds on the horizon but for the time being consumer sentiment is still strong in US and seems little economic reason for house prices to fall.
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US auto industry in serious trouble, housing market melting, negative savings rate, massive trade deficit, falling consumer spending ...

Sounds pretty negative to me.

The economic reason for house prices to fall are the same as here - interest rates have increased significantly.
 
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