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bren2002
Guest
Quaffing fizz because they sold up and cashed in!
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mortimer33
Registered User
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- 18
How about this one?[broken link removed] Apparently - it sleeps up to 5...
Do you have a link for said example of €1600pm 2-bed in west Dublin because I'm looking on Daft right now and there any plenty of nice, new spacious 2-bed apts for €1200pm and under.
Just for fairness and balance here is a city centre 2-bed apt (on the small side) for €1550pm in Frankfurt:
[broken link removed]
I'm not saying west Dublin can be compared to centre of Frankfurt, I'm only showing other examples which counter your €1600pm in West Dublin and €380pm in centre of Frankfurt.
Two to each single bed and one in the bath.
mortimer33
Registered User
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- 18
"it sleeps up to 5..."Maybe they meant 5 Umpa Lumpa's..
This is a great time for daft! all those people advertising houses for sale!
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Bedsit
Guest
Check out this unfinished monstrosity in Mullingar
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=c7&s[a_id]=2713&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=sale&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=10&search_type=sale&id=140994
I wonder which "sea" they are referring to?
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?search=1&s[cc_id]=c7&s[a_id]=2713&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=&s[bd_no]=&s[search_type]=sale&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=10&search_type=sale&id=140994
I wonder which "sea" they are referring to?
has this thing been published before? it says it is HOKS "Regular Property Commentry" is this a regular thing or does once mean "Regular" now? Interesting timing if this is the first one.
wow, maybe its the "Sea of Dreams" that this development is currently sinking into?
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langball
Guest
thanks for that, I was just about to say the same. That apartment sounds like its in suburb hell (autobahn frequently = traffic jam worse than ireland) - its also most likely in the same house as the owner. Yes the rent is cheap by our standards but our stardards have become unsustainable. I am glad I sold my house and have no ties to this place. I feel bad for folks who are mortgaged up to their necks and who think the party will continue forever.
Irish people see that other countries are ridiculously cheap to buy in by irish standards. That is is getting them in more trouble, buying in eastern europe or dubai or wherever. Just because you can rent / buy somewhere else cheaper (= reasonably) is not sufficient grounds to 'release equity' (other words for tighten the noose) and drop 100k; it will still have to be paid back at some stage and sometime soon that amount of money will sound like a lot here, again.
It may be like being in a casino and on a winning streak, up 500% one minute and before you know it you owe the bank 5k. Gambling preys on human nature.
I wish I was wrong but my opinon really counts for nothing. That Herald banner yesterday pm was scary, I had to do a double take. I actually bought it for only the 3rd time ever. Whatever you say about the paper, their reporting or content or whatever, the fact that it was there in black and white was monumental.
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Debtwish
Guest
Re: What will happen to house prices?
I wanted to post my opinion on how low house prices will go on the appropriate thread but found it closed, so I will dump it here.
It has been interesting reading opinions on what will happen to prices. Some believe that the absence of capital appreciation will force investors to reassess their holdings, with the result that most will sell due to the investment case not making sense on a rental yield basis.
Whilst I agree that this could have a significant effect on the market, I feel that what happens to house prices depends as much upon the attitude taken by lenders in a softening market.
Most mortgage debt is securitised by the lending institutions and sold on in the markets to hedge funds and other institutions with an appetite for such risk. All the time there is a healthy demand for these securities, the lenders will keep lending. And why not if you know that you can sell that risk on?
I don’t believe that the global markets will go soft on Irish mortgage debt until they see evidence that bad debt provision is starting to rise on the balance sheets of the lenders. And that will only happen when borrowers start defaulting in significant numbers.
A reduction in demand for securitised debt will cause the banks to reign in the lending and apply stricter criteria. At the moment, it is pretty much a free-for-all out there, with mortgages available on income multiples of five, six times or even more. Imagine what would happen to buyers’ purchasing power if they could only borrow three to four times their income? It doesn’t take much imagination to realise that this would be devastating for the market.
There is such an aversion to renting amongst the Irish population that, even in a softening market, so long the banks are prepared to lend, the buyers will be prepared to borrow, even on a depreciating asset. It is not until the lending slows, that the buyer demand will drop and then only because their ability to pay will be diminished.
It remains to be seen whether this will happen, but I feel that what happens to house prices depends as much on the financial markets as it does on the behaviour of amateur BTL specu-investors.
Any comments?
Debtwish
I wanted to post my opinion on how low house prices will go on the appropriate thread but found it closed, so I will dump it here.
It has been interesting reading opinions on what will happen to prices. Some believe that the absence of capital appreciation will force investors to reassess their holdings, with the result that most will sell due to the investment case not making sense on a rental yield basis.
Whilst I agree that this could have a significant effect on the market, I feel that what happens to house prices depends as much upon the attitude taken by lenders in a softening market.
Most mortgage debt is securitised by the lending institutions and sold on in the markets to hedge funds and other institutions with an appetite for such risk. All the time there is a healthy demand for these securities, the lenders will keep lending. And why not if you know that you can sell that risk on?
I don’t believe that the global markets will go soft on Irish mortgage debt until they see evidence that bad debt provision is starting to rise on the balance sheets of the lenders. And that will only happen when borrowers start defaulting in significant numbers.
A reduction in demand for securitised debt will cause the banks to reign in the lending and apply stricter criteria. At the moment, it is pretty much a free-for-all out there, with mortgages available on income multiples of five, six times or even more. Imagine what would happen to buyers’ purchasing power if they could only borrow three to four times their income? It doesn’t take much imagination to realise that this would be devastating for the market.
There is such an aversion to renting amongst the Irish population that, even in a softening market, so long the banks are prepared to lend, the buyers will be prepared to borrow, even on a depreciating asset. It is not until the lending slows, that the buyer demand will drop and then only because their ability to pay will be diminished.
It remains to be seen whether this will happen, but I feel that what happens to house prices depends as much on the financial markets as it does on the behaviour of amateur BTL specu-investors.
Any comments?
Debtwish
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miju
Guest
Re: What will happen to house prices?
OK so if that's the case , why is inventory building up and the market considerably slower in the month when things are to "pick up" i'm talking about normal 400k ish 3-4 bedroom house , never mind the 70% that failed at auction last week
for all intent and purposes it looks like this time sentiment has begun to turn and people aren't as willing to jump through hoops to buy any property no matter what.
also, some people may be stupid but to insinuate that that irish people are THAT stupid as to take out a mortgage on a depreciating asset???? i mean come on get real the attitude will more than likely be:
"sure why not wait till the market bottoms out before taking on the mortgage after all us irish are cute whores for the bargains / good deals.
"
indeed the massive social cock measuring excercise that is "my house is worth xxxx and i only xxx for it" with be replaced with "this is was worth xxx but i managed to get it for less at xxx"
OK so if that's the case , why is inventory building up and the market considerably slower in the month when things are to "pick up" i'm talking about normal 400k ish 3-4 bedroom house , never mind the 70% that failed at auction last week
for all intent and purposes it looks like this time sentiment has begun to turn and people aren't as willing to jump through hoops to buy any property no matter what.
also, some people may be stupid but to insinuate that that irish people are THAT stupid as to take out a mortgage on a depreciating asset???? i mean come on get real the attitude will more than likely be:
"sure why not wait till the market bottoms out before taking on the mortgage after all us irish are cute whores for the bargains / good deals.
"indeed the massive social cock measuring excercise that is "my house is worth xxxx and i only xxx for it" with be replaced with "this is was worth xxx but i managed to get it for less at xxx"
Debtwish,
It won't take significant numbers of defaulters to tighten the screws on bank securitisation. I'm sure these hedge funds weigh up the future risks associated with any investment, rather than just the current stats.
Simple fact is when debt gets more expensive, the risk of defaulting will rise. For that risk you need a corresponding reward. That reward can only increase with the risk if the margin between ECB rate and the rate charged by the bank increases.... e.g. trackers at ECB+1.5% instead of +1%.
Throw the possibility of U.S. recession and its impact here into the mix, and the risk grows further.
EDIT: Also, banks have to stress-check their mortgagees, so a couple earning €70k and being stress-tested to ECB+2% won't get as much in January 2007 as they could have in January 2006, no matter how much the bank would love to give them the money. The banks may still dish out plenty of mortgages, but the average mortgage has to come down from what it currently is as rates rise.
It won't take significant numbers of defaulters to tighten the screws on bank securitisation. I'm sure these hedge funds weigh up the future risks associated with any investment, rather than just the current stats.
Simple fact is when debt gets more expensive, the risk of defaulting will rise. For that risk you need a corresponding reward. That reward can only increase with the risk if the margin between ECB rate and the rate charged by the bank increases.... e.g. trackers at ECB+1.5% instead of +1%.
Throw the possibility of U.S. recession and its impact here into the mix, and the risk grows further.
EDIT: Also, banks have to stress-check their mortgagees, so a couple earning €70k and being stress-tested to ECB+2% won't get as much in January 2007 as they could have in January 2006, no matter how much the bank would love to give them the money. The banks may still dish out plenty of mortgages, but the average mortgage has to come down from what it currently is as rates rise.
Re: What will happen to house prices?
Hedge fund appetite for mortgage debt is already waning. This BusinessWeek article highlights how Wall Street is pushing back on banks to mop up the mess.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_40/b4003063.htm
"But now that the real estate tide is ebbing, trash is starting to wash up on shore. Mortgage delinquencies are zooming -- bad news for the banks, Wall Street firms, and investors holding loans."
"In some cases, the original lenders are taking the biggest hits. In typical deals, banks agree to buy mortgages back from Wall Street in the case of a payment default within the first 90 days. Now some are writing big checks."
Hedge fund appetite for mortgage debt is already waning. This BusinessWeek article highlights how Wall Street is pushing back on banks to mop up the mess.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_40/b4003063.htm
"But now that the real estate tide is ebbing, trash is starting to wash up on shore. Mortgage delinquencies are zooming -- bad news for the banks, Wall Street firms, and investors holding loans."
"In some cases, the original lenders are taking the biggest hits. In typical deals, banks agree to buy mortgages back from Wall Street in the case of a payment default within the first 90 days. Now some are writing big checks."
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MadPad
Guest
Truely, we are all doomed
http://www.escapeartist.com/international/luck_property.html
http://www.escapeartist.com/international/luck_property.html
and written in August 1999 btw!
Re: What will happen to house prices?
First off, cheers for a good well thought out Bullish argument, we don't see enough of them.
This is an interesting argument from banking side of things but it does neglect the sentiment issue. We dont' really know if people will buy houses if they see the prices stop increasing. Lots of people might take a "Wait and see" attitude rather than get into debt to the tune of 10 times their salary. No matter how much money the banks are throwing at them.
From the baking point of view would this not be a one time deal for the banks? If they got a reputation for selling low quality debt on the international market would this not be shooting themselves in the foot? Once the money machine stops and the other financial institutions stop buying Irish mortgage debt it would be a long time before they would be able to sell on any debt to anyone again?
The other question is how far along this cycle are we? Could the international debt buyers start getting cold feel by looking at the risk profile for our mortgage debt? Even before bad debt starts accumulating?
First off, cheers for a good well thought out Bullish argument, we don't see enough of them.
This is an interesting argument from banking side of things but it does neglect the sentiment issue. We dont' really know if people will buy houses if they see the prices stop increasing. Lots of people might take a "Wait and see" attitude rather than get into debt to the tune of 10 times their salary. No matter how much money the banks are throwing at them.
From the baking point of view would this not be a one time deal for the banks? If they got a reputation for selling low quality debt on the international market would this not be shooting themselves in the foot? Once the money machine stops and the other financial institutions stop buying Irish mortgage debt it would be a long time before they would be able to sell on any debt to anyone again?
The other question is how far along this cycle are we? Could the international debt buyers start getting cold feel by looking at the risk profile for our mortgage debt? Even before bad debt starts accumulating?
M
MadPad
Guest
was wondering how long it would take people to spot that
Ive been following this thread which I find fascinating. Bear and bull seem to think they know it all and its amusing to see the certainty in peoples replies.... Rates WILL increase... etc etc etc..
Plenty of people thought the same as that article in 1999 .... I shared that view, held off buying an investment property then... i still think property is way overvalued in Ireland but at least now ye all know my opinion doesnt count for much
That said, Ireland has been rolling the dice and coming up with 6's for a good few years now.... devaluation, euro entry, rate decreases, immigration etc... wonder whats next...
Well... interest rates WILL increase : next Thursday by 0.25%
Not sure why you find that amusing
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