First of all I am bearish, always have been, although recently my bearishness has not been as acute as previously (but thats another topic).
However, the current media analysis of late (e.g. Indo, Herald) smacks of opportunism on the part of these publications. We've seen the shoddy research from the Indo's point of view with them lifting quotes or misreading stats from this forum and presenting them as general sentiment or facts. I just think they are jumping the gun on this one right now.
All this with at least 2 more interest rate hikes highly likely.
All this with at least 2 more interest rate hikes highly likely.
..with the next one expected in what, 10 days..?
I don’t think so. The whole edifice is held up by the general positive, bullish sentiment towards property prices. Take that away and what’s left? The economics stopped adding up ages ago, I mean look at the farcical “Worth the Investment” articles in the Thursday IT. And for good or for bad, the Heralds headline today is an absolute corker.
I haven't read the article from the Herald but I bet the general tone of it is far less dramitic than the headline.
I haven't read the article from the Herald but I bet the general tone of it is far less dramitic than the headline.
Read it. All I can say is it wasn't proof read by a real estate agent spinmeister
just remember to distinguish the 'boom over' talk from the 'PRICE DROP' talk.
When prices stop going up there will no reason to buy anymore.
Investors are/were buying approx 40% of properties every year, when they see prices not rising and they will have to subsidise their "investments" from now on without the capital appreciation that every recent investor seems to be relying on, they will head for the exits and the market will fall lower and lower.Strictly speaking, that's only true if your motivation in buying is to make money.
Me, I'm not interested in losing money, or bankrupting myself, but neither am I interested in making a killing. If prices are stable or sliding somewhat, then other motivational factors such as wanting to hang my pictures on the wall, not wanting to live with fruitcake flatmates, being able to choose my own furniture etc start to take on more importance than "how rich will this make me".
What I suspect will happen is instead of hearing the "You have to get your foot on the ladder" platitude, people will be hearing "you'd be mad to buy now, sure property is on the way down"...line
The thing is, people have not really been using their intelligence in considering whether they want to buy a property or not. Me, if I come across a nice three bedroomed house that I can afford and which suits my needs, then I should buy it because I can fit a piano in it, or it has a garden that I can work on, or it's 10 minutes from work or whatever, and I plan to stay in it long term, then yes, I have a reason to buy it. Despite best efforts, not all houses are identical just yet.
The problem is, many people's reason to buy property in the past four or five years has been less utilitarian and more "making a killing". The utility reasons will continue to exist, as do issues surrounding the rental market in Ireland which makes it attractive not to rent long term.
I'll try to pick it up on the way home later.
Add the PD's idea of abolishing stamp duty to the mix, this season is going to be very quiet.Investors are/were buying approx 40% of properties every year, when they see prices not rising and they will have to subsidise their "investments" from now on without the capital appreciation that every recent investor seems to be relying on, they will head for the exits and the market will fall lower and lower.
the heralds later editions have had to drop the original headline (it was on the front page wasn't it?)
Investors are/were buying approx 40% of properties every year, when they see prices not rising and they will have to subsidise their "investments" from now on without the capital appreciation that every recent investor seems to be relying on, they will head for the exits and the market will fall lower and lower.
When prices stop going up there will no reason to buy anymore.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?