Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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beattie said:
It seems stories like this regarding recessions brought about by housing bubbles popping are becoming more commonplace.


http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0914/imf2.html
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Are we suggesting that the ground is being layed for the crash? Can the US crash be used as a scapegoat, something that 'we could never have foreseen'? How does the US property market affect the Irish one anyway? Surely, it's the US economy as a whole and not localised property bubbles that we should be worried about?

Anyway, I don't trust anything I read about property anymore. We're a basket case. Our property bubble is massive - it is absolutely huge for a small island on the side of Europe with poor infrastructure and unsustainable economy.

AFAIC, this country has had no governance over the last 10-12 years. We've been on auto-pilot - the vested interests and lobby groups are the ones who are running the place to the demise of others. It's a sad state of affairs when my neighbour at work just spent 2 hours and 20 minutes in a car from west dublin this morning, and is absolutely soul destroyed with worry about his mortgage, his childrens' music lessons and his wife whom he hardly gets to see.
 
whathome said:
Yep, area creep has been going on for years...

- Coolock has become Artane or Raheny
- Ballymun has become Santry or Glasnevin
- Eastern Swords has become Malahide
- Finglas has become Glasnevin
- Some of Artane has moved into Beaumont

Same on Southside...
- Ballybrack has become Killiney
- parts of Dundrum are becoming Stillorgan
- Sallynoggin moving into Glenageary
- Cornelscourt and Leopardstown edging towards Foxrock!

A better postal code system should sort all that out :)
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FYI Dublin now consists of 3 areas: Castlenevintarf, Lucan and South Dublin.
 
I would be interested to see what the extent of the impact of this thread has on the housing market.

I am not getting carried away with the importance of the ramblings of a group of underoccupied obsessives ........however having already influenced a newspaper article, could such aspects as the widespread identification of actual cases of falling house prices cause a more rapid deflation of the market than would otherwise be the case?.

In previous market crashes knowledge of the instances of discounted prices would have been limited to vendors, buyers, EA's and their friends until it would be latched upon by the mainstream media. IMHO, the media outlets are taking their lead from a better informed public (AAM users).

Who wants to set up a website for properties that have dropped in prices ? bet that would be popular and get things rolling a bit quicker:p
 
tententwenty said:
Well its an ill wind in fairness. Some businesses will do well, others will utterly collapse. How would you go about crash-proofing yourself (if this really is the last gasp)?
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I was just thinkg the same thing myself tententwenty. Obviously a recession would affect each of us, but those who have already cashed out of the housing market and are sitting on a pile of money will be kings of the new world in 6 years. All the people who are swimming in debt and owe the bank 300,000 on a house that is now only worth 175,00 won't be much fun to be around. People with a safe gov't job should be able to sleep pretty well at nights. The only way to crash proof yourself is to have more cash and less debt.


A few thoughts on business that shouldn't suffer too much in a recession:
1. Pubs (Ireland will never change)
2. Chippers and any cheap eats
3. Career Counsilors (all the unemployed builders and auctioneers will need to do something with their lives.)


Businesses that will be hurt badly by a recession
1. Upscale restaraunts (sorry Lemongrass, I love ya, but I won't be able to afford ya)
2. Luxury car dealers (not a big demad for hummers and Land Rovers)
3. Builders and everyone involved in the housing industry (a little obvious)
 
"In previous market crashes knowledge of the instances of discounted prices would have been limited to vendors, buyers, EA's and their friends until it would be latched upon by the mainstream media. IMHO, the media outlets are taking their lead from a better informed public (AAM users).

Who wants to set up a website for properties that have dropped in prices ? bet that would be popular and get things rolling a bit quicker:p"

Nooooooo- Can you all keep quite please for the next month or so?? I'm trying to sell a house here!! (only joking)
 
Does anybody know when in the month do Daft update their house price index? At the moment its only up to July.
 
whathome said:
Yep, area creep has been going on for years...

- Coolock has become Artane or Raheny
- Ballymun has become Santry or Glasnevin
- Eastern Swords has become Malahide
- Finglas has become Glasnevin
- Some of Artane has moved into Beaumont

Same on Southside...
- Ballybrack has become Killiney
- parts of Dundrum are becoming Stillorgan
- Sallynoggin moving into Glenageary
- Cornelscourt and Leopardstown edging towards Foxrock!

A better postal code system should sort all that out :)
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Not only that

Leixlip, Celbridge and Maynooth are now considered "Dublin" to many people I know who live there!
 
batty;277581Nooooooo- Can you all keep quite please for the next month or so?? I'm trying to sell a house here!! (only joking)[/quote said:
I know you're only joking but I still think if there are signs of a serious 'wobble' (as I think bank economists call it - they just can't bring themselves to admit it's going to be a crash) then Cowen will bring in some FTB-friendly Stamp Duty changes in December which will prop up the lower end of the market... for a while.
I reckon there will still be time to get out in the Spring '07 season - but I wouldn't want to be selling my house this time next year.....
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I couldn't agree more with SHARP

A property crash in a well developed diversified economy is one thing - ie Japan in the early 90s - a property crash in modern day Post- Celtic Tiger Ireland is going to be interesting to say the least.

It still amazes me how much of the entire economy and workforce is dependent on the Property sector. I have heard figures of 10-15% of the workforce , but IMO that is on the low side - if you take all aspects , Construction, financials, EAs , advertisers , interior decor and all the retail associated with it, all the deli shops selling jumbo breakfast rolls and the like - I would put it at closer to 30% myself .

I was down in the home place (South County Carlow) over the weekend and damn near every small business or recent startup is in something to do with property - be it builders, tilers , builders providers , drain unblockers , capital equipment hires , painters , landscape gardeners, etc etc . Every corner you go around there is a site for sale - there are 3 estate agents in a village with a population of 900!- I guess everybody down there must be on their 3 of 4th property by now! - if the property market slows - the knock on effect will be tremendous .

Another observation is that there is widespread displacment going on in small businesses throughout the Irish countryside - despite official denials to the contrary - 2 businesses I know down there cleaned out their Irish workforce and hired in Eastern Europeans - Doesn't really matter as most of the Irish I know want to work in the property sector where the money is better - no competitive challenges to worry about there . Again if the property market slows and the property jobs dry up - we will really see how tolerant the Irish really are - once the middleclass start squealing the game will be up.

Im in export manufacturing and this sector has technically been in recession for the previous 2 years - take away the property sector and public sector and with some honorable exceptions there has been Sweet Fanny Adams job creation in this country since 2001. The whole property boom literally has created this "bubble economy " in which the majority of the population of this island are dependent for their livelihoods.

For those of us who have to make a living in the "real world" it is quite apparent that we are , as the Chinese insult would put it, are about to enter interesting times . the US is about to enter recession , if its not there already , the result of which will put us all in uncharted territory , Europe's tentative recovery this year could be stillborn , dependent as it is on Germany's export sector . China's booming exports have masked a multitude of sins , which may become apparent when the American consumer decides the splurge is over and its time to repay the mortage or lose the house - it will be a long long time before China will be in a position to replace the US as the motor of World economic growth - oh yeah they also have a property bubble too!.

Irelands competitive position on the world stage has gone to the dogs over the last few years - ok we dodged a bullet over Intel, but its a stay of execution , not a pardon. With inflation spiralling , more competitive rivals opening up in the far east and eastern europe , our export industry better start diversifying soon because when the Multi's move on - theres gonna be a lot of empty 3 bed semi ds in County Dublin and Limerick.

From a purely economic Darwinist point of view - A shakeup was overdue and t what the market gives , the market takes away , if you get complacent. It will seperate the chaff from the wheat and what is still left standing will be something to build on when the dust settles - It will also hopefully cure the Irish peoples illusions of getting a lot for very little effort - that there is no subsitute for hardwork allied with good planning and vision to create wealth and prosperity that will last.

No use blaming the government - we live in a democracy and in democracies you normally get (as much as it pains me to say this) governments that are broadly representative of the citizens who voted for them - poor planners and money managers, the greed and short term thinking, the im alright Jackism etc etc. Hopefully people will remember that when they go to the polls next time - maybe a property crash might make them brave enough to actually do something about it , rather than the usual bitching, whinging and moaning that takes place between elections , yet when the opportunity arises to take positive action , they fall for the same ould S***E and chicken out. A Property crash will be tough , taxes will go up etc etc , yet there could be a silver lining to it all - its not the end of the world , just a particular part of our economic history that people will look back on fondly saying " Do ya remember how much that gob****e paid for that.................................................

Im Done
 
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SLAPPY said:
I was just thinkg the same thing myself tententwenty. Obviously a recession would affect each of us, but those who have already cashed out of the housing market and are sitting on a pile of money will be kings of the new world in 6 years. All the people who are swimming in debt and owe the bank 300,000 on a house that is now only worth 175,00 won't be much fun to be around. People with a safe gov't job should be able to sleep pretty well at nights. The only way to crash proof yourself is to have more cash and less debt.


A few thoughts on business that shouldn't suffer too much in a recession:
1. Pubs (Ireland will never change)
2. Chippers and any cheap eats
3. Career Counsilors (all the unemployed builders and auctioneers will need to do something with their lives.)


Businesses that will be hurt badly by a recession
1. Upscale restaraunts (sorry Lemongrass, I love ya, but I won't be able to afford ya)
2. Luxury car dealers (not a big demad for hummers and Land Rovers)
3. Builders and everyone involved in the housing industry (a little obvious)
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I think the Spar's/ centra's/ convience shops will be hugely hit and buying in Lidl/Aldi wiill sky rocket!(people need food, but will need to watch the pennies) I also think shopping centre's in general will be hit in a big way, Although shopping is Ireland's biggest hobby, I just think people will continue to travel to them (i.e. the north side visting Liffey Valley and the south side travelling to Blanchardstown) but it will be their day out and the buying will dry up (well especially in comparision to the lunatic buying that's going on now)

The construction industry impacts so much and most things will get a big hit. I really don't want a downturn/recession, but want people to cop on and face up to the fact that we are not Footballers and Footballers wifes!
 
OilKing said:
PS. Could get messy if room305 and tententwenty get their beer fueled hands on each other.
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Not to worry, whathome will start his own thread in the chipper afterwards about the petty bickering and we'll all have a good larf. :D
 
Savvy said:
Well Somerset, Looks like you have your first house...Batty's!
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In anticipation of falling prices I've priced my house myself at €690. EA was suggesting that I put it on at €750!! It won't be officially "launched" until next Tuesday but should be interesting.
 
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