Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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A good example is the ChocolateFactory development in Kilmainham. The speed at which the work is being completed is astonishing. A month ago the block facing Kilmainham hospital was not even complete structurally. Last week they were putting up the glass front to the same block.
 
I wonder does this mean we are going to see an even bigger number of completions this year than previously thought as developers rush to pull in timelines? Ie stuff scheduled for Q1 2007 gets finished in Q4 2006?
 

The block facing the hospital is actually the new Hotel and was always scheduled to be completed first.
 

Hi Room, all
Why do you think the Estate Agents need to whip up interest by junk-mailing exercises (at the cost of a couple of hours @ minimum-wage rate to some unemployed chisler) if business is booming?

Where I live (just outside Greater London boundary) I have these shoved through my letter-box regularly. However the market locally has moved from stagnant (which it was for a couple of years) to frankly depressed in the wake of the government's commitment to increasing the housing stocks to resolve the alleged 'shortage' in the south-east. This strategy has meant that this desirable stable environment within commute of London (tens of thousands of people used to take the train into the city to work every day) has in 10 years become a concrete jungle with little open space or amenity. Houses nearby have been on the market up to 2 years (and that is AFTER price-reduction of - in one case - £30,000 on an already-knock-down price. Ten years ago when I purchased my home in a prestigious street (quiet Victorian terrace in a conservation area adjacent to high-street, station and bus-services) it was all owner-occupied. Now most of the houses are rented out...........at least that is the plan! The local university - which like all learning-establishments these days must organise itself as a hard-nosed business - recognised a decade ago the potential income from rental of student accommodation. They built 20,000 units on the university campus. So for the amateur landlords/risk-takers who 'bought to let' when it was 'a sure thing' and 'money for old rope - you can't go wrong' hold property which they can't get rid of (there are no buyers) and they can't rent out (there is no market).

It was only at that stage I began to get estate agents' leaflets thrust through my door telling me my property was 'needed' as they had 'buyers waiting'.

By the way did anyone see 'Property Ladder' on Channel 4 last night? I caught the last few minutes of it. A couple (she was Irish, with a bank-manager hubby) were endeavouring to resettle in Ireland for quality-of-life considerations, settle for a property in Newtownmountkennedy (I think?) and our intrepid PL team 'make the phone call' only to be told the price has gone up Euro50,000 since they viewed the previous day........The last shots are the couple back in the good old UK saying sadly 'It was only a dream.........we've got it out of our system now as there's no way we're doing that! (bidding war). I found the difference in attitude very interesting. Not only were they not prepared to get into the b.w. nonsense but they had put an offer under the asking-price. The E.A.s telephone response was described by the PL team as "fierce".
 
Marie said:
Not only were they not prepared to get into the b.w. nonsense but they had put an offer under the asking-price. The E.A.s telephone response was described by the PL team as "fierce".
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That EA will be a sweet strokeable amenable purring pussycat by this time next year . That program was made during the 'top of the market' this spring no doubt.
 
Anecdotes aside, I reckon changes in inventory levels are the best indicator of where we are at. Rem it remains a sellers market, i.e. sellers BELIEVE they can extract higher prices from buyers and buyers feel they have no power to ask for discounts. Sellers actual ability to extract those higher prices is reflected in the inventory level—low or steady levels means buyers are caving in to sellers demands, rising levels means failure to extract higher prices.

Anecdotes from Estate Agents etc. suggest inventories are rising. But I don't trust much of anything they say. Where are the best inventory measures for Ireland? Anyone know?
 
Marie said:
It was only at that stage I began to get estate agents' leaflets thrust through my door telling me my property was 'needed' as they had 'buyers waiting'.
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I'm not doubting you for a second but I would be very interested in hearing any thoughts you might have on why REAs would get involved in such a counter-productive measure? If they are struggling to shift the unsold properties on their books why would they try and add to them?

The only roundabout explanation I can think of is they have a seller but his estimation of what the house is worth is well in excess of what potential buyers think it is worth. By bringing more properties onto the books (more competition for the seller) they may force a re-evaluation by the seller and finally shift it.
 
They're not. They want you to buy something so they can eat.
 
walk2dewater said:
Anecdotes from Estate Agents etc. suggest inventories are rising. But I don't trust much of anything they say. Where are the best inventory measures for Ireland? Anyone know?
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My occasional DAFT series tells the same.

The count is 14433 now. It was 14089 on friday last .

The inventory of unsold property on DAFT has risen by 344 or 2.5% in under 5 days

I predict that the number of properties for sale will reach 15000 by next monday around the close of business.
 
walk2dewater said:
They're not. They want you to buy something so they can eat.
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So it's a reverse psychology play? Crafty REAs. They were hoping that when I came home yesterday I saw the card on my mat and thought:

"Record prices, buyers queuing up around the block to purchase ... no way am I selling my house. In fact, I am going to buy another house!"

Makes sense. Although given the area in which I live I wouldn't imagine it's overburdened with property speculators. That said, it probably wouldn't completely surprise me either ... this is Ireland after all.
 

Car dealers do similar things when they can't shift inventory. ANYTHING to get punters in the door.
 

...couldn' disagree more on the logic you apply.... have had those flyers coming in the door from various EA's from time to time over the last 3 yrs
 
When you do get fliers through the door, it is ususally down to one thing. A house in the development (similar to the one receiving the mailshot) sold with a couple of bidders engaged in a bidding war. Perhaps these unsucessful bidders have asked the agent to keep them informed about other properties in the same development. Hence, the targetted spam. I doubt that every house in the area got one.
 
2Pack, surely you're not really suggesting that five days' worth of figures from Daft is really an indication of anything? It could even be that EAs are so busy selling houses that they don't have time to take down the sold stock when they put up the new stock.

BTW saw one property 3/4 bed in SW Dublin last week. Fairly central and close to Luas, though house is very 80's looking inside and opposite corporation flats. Asking price was €420K and current bid it €390K. Dunno if the asking price was too high or what will happen with bidding in the next few weeks, but it is at least one indication that buyers are thinking about bidding under the asking price.
 
The BIG question... are inventories rising or not? Is time to sell increasing or not? Personally, I can't make my mind up about the market until I see data on this. Daft is an OK approximation, but a couple of days does not make a trend.
 

Have heard from the horses mouth that this is the current strategy of EAs. Highest price in area is 381K, pitch at 420K with the expressed notion of dropping to 390K after 2 weeks. Hoping that someone will bite at a high price but at all times telling the vendor that 381K is the realistic target. Someone buys at 390K thinking they've got a bargain and everyone's happy. Next sale.

The problem is that at the moment people are biting at whatever price the property is pitched at. Game Theory describes this scenario quite well with what's known as the Winners Curse.
 
walk2dewater said:
The BIG question... are inventories rising or not? Is time to sell increasing or not? Personally, I can't make my mind up about the market until I see data on this. Daft is an OK approximation, but a couple of days does not make a trend.
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The problem with most data is that is comes from the previous 3 months.
 
walk2dewater said:
T Daft is an OK approximation, but a couple of days does not make a trend.
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Leave me with it my dear fellow

A couple of months to end september. THATS a trend.
 
I'm listening to a lady on the phone to one of her mates at work here (strange how she always seems to be on the phone to friends). She's just after giving a rundown of her recent purchase of a third house. Her reason for purchase was that she just wouldn't feel safe investing her money in anything else.
 
2Pack said:
Leave me with it my dear fellow

A couple of months to end september. THATS a trend.
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I'm doing a daft record of all houses for sale in the country and by county if this is what you are doing? I plan to graph it dynamically too but only if I get bored enough

edit: daft not dail! Freudian slip!
 
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