Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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SLAPPY said:
Once the specu-vestors stopped buying, the market took a sharp nosedive and everyone realized the building boom overshot demand.
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And it seems that while the Florida market was going up the number of specu-vestors or flippers who were stirring it was actually higher than thought

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The interesting thing about Ireland is that a contract is not a contract so a lot of these guys can withdraw fast. If you have €10k down on a €600k property today that you intended to flip then you can just walk away from the deal in Ireland because the hit if you buy it could be over €10K .

These developments (which were once sold out) will suddenly come back on the market with a 'few' cancellations. They will never admit how many.

Watch out for them :D
 
There are pitfalls for the investulators should watch out for. Having convinced themselves that they're in it for the long term, when in fact, all they expect is capital apprication and not to be landlords, many of them will ignore their gut feeling to sell. Greed will be their downfall.
 
CN624 said:
Is it not possible for US mortgages to be fixed for the entire term?
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I doubt it, are full term fixed mortgages available here? I presume around 10-15 years is the upper limit. The key point is that even if these people wish to fix again at the end of the term, the rate will have shot up. Short term rates have increased by 4.25% in just under a year and a half. The full effects of this have not been realised because thus far the banks are taking the hit rather than the borrowers.
 
Traditionally, the majority of US mortgages were fixed for 30 years, but
in the last few years, many buyers took out interest-only, variable-rate loans, and in some cases put no money down to buy a house. According to the government-chartered mortgage giant Freddie Mac one out of every three loans issued in 2005 was an adjustable rate mortgage. Now that we’ve seen 14 consecutive interest-rate increases since June 30, 2004, many of these loan rates are bumping up, increasing the size of mortgage payments. Houses were unaffordable for a lot of people at 6% fixed over 30 years but at 2/3% for the first couple of years it was possible to buy with the hope that increasing values would mitigate the adjustment to higher rates.
 
Noel Ahern, Jill Kirby (Sunday Times) and some bank dude. The opinions of the bank guy and Jill Kirby were predictable enough, Jill has been a property bear for quite a while. Ahern sounded quite panicked, VERY bearish, and seemed to be pushing any blame for any future crash firmly at the door of the banks, notably the central bank which should be more restrictive with it's lending to the regular banks + 100% loans. He disowned any blame saying that the departments sole role is on the supply side and pointed to the kazillion or so units being built this year. He also threw some blame at parents for helping/buying places for their kids, and individuals for buying now rather than waiting till they'd saved more.
 
It would be interesting to know how many of the banks' stress testing algorithims include a drop in the property market. No many I'd say.
 
Howitzer said:
Ahern sounded quite panicked, VERY bearish, and seemed to be pushing any blame for any future crash firmly at the door of the banks, notably the central bank which should be more restictive with it's lending to the regular banks + 100% loans. He disowned any blame saying that the departments sole role is on the supply side and pointed to the kazillion or so units being built this year. He also threw some blame at parents for helping/buying places for their kids, and individuals for buying now rather than waiting till they'd saved more.
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Did he say "Shure who's runnin this place anyway lads?"
 
Howitzer said:
Turn on to newstalk, Noel Ahern sounds like WTDW.
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Is it possible to pick this up as a podcast for those that aren't local? What show was it on?
 
Howitzer said:
Ahern sounded quite panicked, VERY bearish, and seemed to be pushing any blame for any future crash firmly at the door of the banks, notably the central bank which should be more restrictive with it's lending to the regular banks + 100% loans. He disowned any blame saying that the departments sole role is on the supply side and pointed to the kazillion or so units being built this year. He also threw some blame at parents for helping/buying places for their kids, and individuals for buying now rather than waiting till they'd saved more.
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This must have election-related alarm bells going off in FF HQ. No matter what anyone says or how much blamestorming is done, whichever party is in charge when this crash occurs is going to be out of power for about 20 years ...

If I were an evil FF strategist I'd be setting the party up to lose by a narrow margin. Then I'd led the party smugly to the opposition benches and shout loudly "I told you no-one could manage the economy like us!" when the alternative government tried to deal with the aftermath of a housing crash.

As as the market bottomed out, FF would be re-elected on landslide by promising to reverse all the measures the alternative government were forced to put in place (higher taxes etc.) ...
 
room305 said:
This must have election-related alarm bells going off in FF HQ. No matter what anyone says or how much blamestorming is done, whichever party is in charge when this crash occurs is going to be out of power for about 20 years ...

If I were an evil FF strategist I'd be setting the party up to lose by a narrow margin. Then I'd led the party smugly to the opposition benches and shout loudly "I told you no-one could manage the economy like us!" when the alternative government tried to deal with the aftermath of a housing crash.

As as the market bottomed out, FF would be re-elected on landslide by promising to reverse all the measures the alternative government were forced to put in place (higher taxes etc.) ...
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Most cunning, most devious...... ;)
 
room305 said:
This must have election-related alarm bells going off in FF HQ. No matter what anyone says or how much blamestorming is done, whichever party is in charge when this crash occurs is going to be out of power for about 20 years ...

If I were an evil FF strategist I'd be setting the party up to lose by a narrow margin. Then I'd led the party smugly to the opposition benches and shout loudly "I told you no-one could manage the economy like us!" when the alternative government tried to deal with the aftermath of a housing crash.

As as the market bottomed out, FF would be re-elected on landslide by promising to reverse all the measures the alternative government were forced to put in place (higher taxes etc.) ...
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Isn't there a FF backbenchers debate going on tommorow?. I bet the FF TD's in the commuter belts are getting hammered on the doorsteps about the high cost of housing. Many of the constituants in these areas (Meath, Kildare, Louth etc) perhaps bought to get on the property ladder and now are appauled at the prospect of handing out 50k-100k in stamp duty when they want to return to the area in which they were brought up in. Even more so when they hear that the Government is raking in nearly a half a billion in stamp duty that will probably be squandered on election promises and make-up.

NOTE: Please squander it on more Traffic Corps Gardai.
 
Howitzer said:
Noel Ahern, Jill Kirby (Sunday Times) and some bank dude. The opinions of the bank guy and Jill Kirby were predictable enough, Jill has been a property bear for quite a while. Ahern sounded quite panicked, VERY bearish, and seemed to be pushing any blame for any future crash firmly at the door of the banks, notably the central bank which should be more restrictive with it's lending to the regular banks + 100% loans.
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Noel is minister for housing and has advance notice of lots of interesting stats that we mortals would not have. He has the latest housing starts and the latest completion figures well before they are published. He knows the size of the average FTB mortgage and can see changes very fast ....its a legacy of the FTB grant his department administered.

What IS he hiding and what DOES he see happening before the next election AND for which FF will be blamed ???? . Why can he not simply go to the Galway races and chill.....like all good FFers should.
He disowned any blame saying that the departments sole role is on the supply side and pointed to the kazillion or so units being built this year.
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and how about building regulations and national planning guidelines and other stuff his department is supposed to do ??
He also threw some blame at parents for helping/buying places for their kids, and individuals for buying now rather than waiting till they'd saved more.
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the durty blueshirt bastards :D
 
As a counterpoint to the bearish sentiment being espoused here, when I arrived home from work today there was one of those "this house has recently been sold for a record price in your area, we have numerous potential buyers for a property such as yours, please call etc. etc." awaiting me on the mat.

Presumably the REA (representing one of the big firms) wouldn't have paid someone to deliver these if they had a glut of unsold properties sitting on their books.

Also while I like my little house, I am forced to concede that it is probably closer to the bottom of the market than the top.

I thought it was interesting anyway.
 
Agree that this all might be a little premature. Compare number of properties available on DAFT and myhome.ie in Dublin, Wicklow, Kildare and Meath (4-5000) with the inventory in San Diego currently (~24,000) which has a similar population (1.27 million). Prices won't fall unless (until) there is a large increase in inventory.

Spent last night trying to convince a friend that now might not be a good time to buy a crappy apartment on her own when interest rates are rising but she and the other four of her friends with her all told me I was mad. 2 of the others are buying also - one an investment property. All agreed that prices were mad but despite this they will never fall and they might as well buy anyway.

No sign of a change in sentiment there.
 
gearoidmm said:
Prices won't fall unless (until) there is a large increase in inventory.
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Actually this is the first stage.

While a sudden gapping down in market prices WILL happen and will probably be a precursor to smaller, drawn out and sustained falls, what we're likely to see before any tipping into a true buyers market is (1) a build up in inventory (2) massive falling off in trading activity, then (3) a drop in inventory. At stage 3 the have-to sellers (the only ones left in the market) cave into buyers demands for discounts, and buyers will just be clueing in to the possibility of discounts. Only at stage 3 will we begin a proper 'buyers market', not before.

We are barely at stage 1 (and maybe not even), and the progression through the stages can be fast or so slow as to be almost imperceptable.

Here's a VERY interesting set of charts. From these charts I'd suggest the UK is well past stage 1.
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I know this thread is discussing public sentiment but some industry views may also be useful. I was talking to a mate last night who is in foreman of a very large development and would be close to the developer.

He says there is a huge panic at the moment to get as much done as quickly possible within the industry before the bubble bursts.
They are fitting out apartments twice as fast now as they were were 6 months ago. I asked him was it because they are more efficient and he says not really, its cos the workers are working longer hours because they know as soon as the plug is pulled they could be out of work for a long long time.
 
Did anyone see Location, location, location on telly last night?

I'm proved right! Wicklow is THE most expensive county to buy in bar Dublin.

The presenters did their best, but there was no way the couple were going to get what they wanted (4 bed detached hahaha) for the money they had.

They really showed Wicklow as a sellers' market - hugely inflated prices for the cachet of living there. And, if you're like me and stuck on a humonguous estate in Bray and want off badly - the only way to get anything decent is to move to another county.

So that's what we're trying to do. Wicklow's very scenic and near Dublin and all that, but you'll spend your life in traffic and never get enough together (bar windfalls) to scrape together enough to get out of your first house without mortgaging your life away.

Be interested to hear what others thought
 
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