Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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If they werent happy why didnt they withdraw it? or are they panicking? There are two different types of house on that road, are you comparing like with like?
 
AMVs and guides - designed for one purpose only ....to get 3 or more bidders competing in a fervoured auction room.

Drumcondra for 1.7m euros or US$ 2.2m. As per Ricecakes it reminds me of serfdom - 30 years of hard dual labour to freedom. Assuming a deposit of US$200k ( low I know) total repayments over 30 years would approach US$4m. What a result for the banking industry.
 
bearishbull said:
If they werent happy why didnt they withdraw it? or are they panicking? There are two different types of house on that road, are you comparing like with like?
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Actually i just looked they are identical ,unless the inside of one needs more work done than other, this is a bad result alrite, 7% rise in nearly 15 months when homes in area were rising at 25% per annum early this year. A house near me and close to clare road went from 500k to 750k between Jan05 and May06. Why hasnt this house increased by similar? mmmmm
 
bearishbull said:
Actually i just looked they are identical ,unless the inside of one needs more work done than other, this is a bad result alrite, 7% rise in nearly 15 months when homes in area were rising at 25% per annum early this year.
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They were more or less identical, even had the same length garden. Both needed modernisation.

Very weak result IMO and vendor must have been very keen to sell if they had a reserve of only 7% (max) above previous sale in April 2005.
 
whathome said:
They were more or less identical, even had the same length garden. Both needed modernisation.

Very weak result IMO and vendor must have been very keen to sell if they had a reserve of only 7% (max) above previous sale in April 2005.
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Can we assume sentiment has changed? I'd expect a red brick property in good location to increase by a lot more considering what other houses in area have increased in value by.
 
bearishbull said:
Can we assume sentiment has changed? I'd expect a red brick property in good location to increase by a lot more considering what other houses in area have increased in value by.
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There's often a huge difference in red brick houses even when located on the same road. For example there are two houses on our road at the moment, both owned by people in their 70s. If put up for sale tomorrow, both would require modernisation but whereas one would need a new kitchen, the flowery wallpaper and carpets stripped out and perhaps a new bathroom; the other needs all this plus rewiring, plumbing, central heating and a new roof!

If they went for sale, I've no doubt the AMVs would vary considerably.
 

I think what we have here is either scaremongering or a general lack of understanding. I'm not a bear, on the current market but there are a number of issues that need to be taken into account.
- the house made 35% over the guide and people are saying that this is a bad result - so what would have been a satisfactory result 60% / 80%?
- the previous one on Clare Road made a bumper price (think it was mentioned earlier here it went 58% over the guide). This I understand was due to exceptional personal circumstances on behalf of the buyer.
- Prior to that, the last house before that one the road was sold for 625k so taking the logic of "the last house sold for xx so this should have gone up by xx" is crazy. Yesterday's auction achieved 725k more than the 2nd last house sold on the road (or 116%)

Roy
 

Roy,
It was you that made the comparison in the first place! (see above)

So a house is auctioned 18 months after an identical one and only achieves 7% appreciation....
and you call that scaremongering? You were the one that wanted to use it as a barometer, not us.

So if we can't compare it to the previous house, what is a fair comparison? Everyone knows that AMV's are a joke.

Maybe when you made the original post above you didn't take the date that the previous house sold into consideration?

So in your original post, you said that the other house is the benchmark but now you know the auction result was weak, you say it was due to exceptional personal circumstances .... which is it?
 
whathome said:
So a house is auctioned 18 months after an identical one and only achieves 7% appreciation....and you call that scaremongering? You were the one that wanted to use it as a barometer, not us.
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I certainly would have used it as a barometer but given what I knew about the previous 2 houses I would not have expected a price much higher than the previous one (St Judes?). In fact, an agent (not the selling agent) advised me that they believed it would go 1.3-1.4m. I would have been interested myself only the work required and the stampers to me meant it represented poor value.

Overall I would have thought the vendor was happy given the price of some other houses in the general area at present - fair play to them.

Roy
 
onekeano said:
fair play to them.
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Absolutely - fair play to them.

...but it's not fair to set us up to use an auction as a barometer of sentiment and then accuse us of scaremongering when we analyse the result.

So anything that doesn't paint a lovely rosy picture of the Irish property market is scaremongering? Maybe we should all take "make-believe" XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX before posting here
 
More bearish and very bearish articles in the Indo today

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Interest rate hikes put the brakes on house spree[/FONT]
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1683365&issue_id=14609

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]US wages surge points towards higher US and EU rates[/FONT]
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=186&si=1683406&issue_id=14609

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Is the debt-fuelled world living on borrowed time?[/FONT]
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=35&si=1683414&issue_id=14609

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Property's poll peril[/FONT]
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=35&si=1683456&issue_id=14609
 
rob30 said:
I live around the corner from there. Cute houses but you would need your head examined to spend that much!
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Re 550 terrace in phibs - Yep, the EA is following on from prices earlier on this year not realising that the sentiment (IMO) has changed.

This one for 405 i considered buying for 375 (i think) earlier this year but it had retention planning permission issues so fell thru (thank god!). Will be interesting to see how the price changes.
 


It's great that they looked for the real story from yesterday's IBF/PWC report. Even Eddie Hobbs has a few words to say
 

Anyone else agree with me that the market has crashed.
 


You can't fault the Indo's coverage of the 'delicate' subject of the global debt tsunami.
 
As the market is often described in aeronautical terms, (soaring, soft landing, etc.) I would describe the market as approaching a stall. Induced by fuel starvation to the engines (rising interest rates) and too steep an angle of attack (hyper inflation in house prices). The question is whether the pilots can regain control of the aircraft before it drops, spinning towards Terra Firma.
 
My own sentiment on house prices is that we are at a tipping point due to interest rates....I think people are "waiting and seeing"...if rates hold firm then I expect prices to rise by 3-5% over the next 12 months. If they rise by .25% I expect them to remain flat and if they rise by .5% I predict them to fall. Interest rate changes (like inflation) cause uncertaintity in the market resulting in a "look before you leap" mindset.

I don't think there is/will be mass selling as the re-entry costs are too high...it's funny to think that Stamp Duty (as bad as it is) might actually be the one thing holding up the property market

On the over-supply side...I think developers will scale back to protect margins as will owners of landbanks. There will be instances of builders forging ahead and hitting the wall, but the Sisks, McInerneys and Bovales of this world will adapt.

Firefly
 
I think it'll be a while (< 6 months) before the market realises there's nothing holding it up anymore - a bit like in the cartoons when they run over the cliff and keep going - for a moment......
 
phoenix_n - I think thats why logical bear arguements end up seeming over the top... You stated that you believe the market has crashed, yet the property in Clare Road went for 1.35m - which people could argue is a technical drop or stall or soft whatever - but it does not signify a crash of any sort - a crash would have to be significant 20%+ drop and certain houses getting no bids even when the house drops it's price by 20%
 
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