Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Don't be unnerved - ECB is rushing to get rates to a neutral level. Interestingly they see neutral somewhere around 4%. Rates at 2% were unusually low but holding them that low for such a long time has fooled Irish buyers into thinking that 2% was normal.

More indications that ECB will keep raising beyond 3.5% into next year:

Thing is 4% is still reasonably low (or on the low side of neutral levels
so to speak) and I don't think it will be enough to curb real inflation.

My concern is that the CB's will stop too soon or pause for too long
due to pressure on economic growth. Inflation may then get seriously
out of control resulting in a necessity to raise rates by a lot more
than is currently intended because they stalled on fighting inflation
too early leaving them no choice but to then go hard and fast with
rates à la Volcker in the late 70s.
 
Was talking with some colleagues in the canteen at work earlier today. Strangely
enough we seldom discuss property there but today it cropped up in conversation
for the first time in over a month.

General concensus is that anybody contemplating buying a house at the moment
for whatever reason, (be it to live in or investment etc) are getting nervous and
doubtful. It seemed unanimous that the end of the boom is upon us. I found it
interesting that all of us (6 others and myself) were in agreement that it could be
a risky time to buy. The last time we had this chat the opinions were split.

If that's the opinion in our canteen, i'm sure it's echoed around many other canteens
in the country. Maybe??
 
Looks like 2Pack's theory about the back of Balivor was correct...

Balivor in Dublin 18 was withdrawn from auction in May and then quoted €3.35M, now it's been reduced to €2.75M

[broken link removed]=

Original SBpost article listing withdrawal in May:
 
If that's the opinion in our canteen, i'm sure it's echoed around many other canteens
in the country. Maybe??

I've noticed it too. I keep my bearish comments to this thread as I don't want to upset my heavily indebted friends/colleagues ... but lately there's been a definite increase in nervousness about the property market.
 
I've noticed it too. I keep my bearish comments to this thread as I don't want to upset my heavily indebted friends/colleagues ... but lately there's been a definite increase in nervousness about the property market.

... meanwhile a colleague of mine is rushing to complete the purchase of a one bed ground floor 'luxury apartment' ;) in Dundrum for just shy of €400k in order to draw down the mortgage before the 6 month drawdown period is up, as she knows she wouldn't get approved for as much now.

I do actually feel nervous/sorry for her, but I dare not enter into 'that' conversation with her...

(now THESE are luxury apartments... http://www.trumpparkavenue.com/ )
 
I keep my bearish comments to this thread as I don't want to upset my heavily indebted friends/colleagues ...
I've been in the exact same situation many times.

I did try to talk to one of my friends about his recent apartment purchase, but he didn't listen to me - very sensitive stuff. I guess you just don't talk about money in public, it's a private decision that he's made. God help him (25 and mortgaged to 400k for 35 years), that's all I can say.
 
Here's a big price reduction in Glendalough, Wicklow.

It started at 800k
[broken link removed]

then went to 750k


still no dice and is now 690k
[broken link removed]

A reduction of 110K or 13.75%
 
I did try to talk to one of my friends about his recent apartment purchase, but he didn't listen to me - very sensitive stuff. I guess you just don't talk about money in public, it's a private decision that he's made. God help him (25 and mortgaged to 400k for 35 years), that's all I can say.

You cant win, talk to them and you risk an argument, don't talk to them and feel crap for not warning them.
 
Definitely think the market is turning.

Doesn't stop people asking for ridiculous amounts for very ordinary gafs though. Came across this a while ago [broken link removed]= . Madness.
 
Any word on any auctions this week? I know a local house was for auction today. Wonder if it sold well above AMV.
 
seen todays business news 800 mortgages being taken out a day ,i think this can only lead to a big crash
 
This news from a South African newspaper on the latest Irish 'fools gold' rush. (The italics are mine)


Irish invade Berlin for buy-to-let flats

The expansion eastwards of the Irish investor follows a trend across Europe with entrepreneurs who made fortunes from the growth of the Celtic tiger economy buying up airports and shopping malls in England; thousands of apartments on the Spanish Costa's and Florida; and hotels and ski chalets in the Balkans. (These are the markets now flooded with inventory and falling prices where Paddies are floundering in a sea of hard lessons)

The Irish are estimated to be in the top three foreign investor nations in
Berlin. However, in a city of 3,4-million, where only half of its citizens are working, German observers of the Berlin property market are extremely cautious. (They look at these Paddies and scratch their heads in bemusement)

Ralf Schoenball, a property expert for the Berlin-based daily Der Tagesspiegel, warns that
Berlin may not be the best place for Irish investors to buy flats and apartments. "Don't get me wrong here. I have been here since 1983 and I love Berlin. But the economy of this city has shrunk every year since 1996 with one exception: [growth of] 1% in 2000.

"Because of the shrinking economy there are fewer Berliners working and the incomes of the households are decreasing if you take into account the cost of living. For the housing market this means that, as people have less money, an increase in rents makes it harder for them to pay. There are also 100 000 empty flats in
Berlin, so tenants can move around and find the cheapest places to rent."

Morris brushes aside the cautious noises of German observers and says: "The prospects for
Berlin look good in the long run. (No they don’t, the population is falling and aging and incomes are falling along with the birth rate) Many of the Germans in business here are too conservative.


Ho hum.

[broken link removed]
 
But the economy of this city has shrunk every year since 1996 with one exception: [growth of] 1% in 2000.

However, in a city of 3,4-million, where only half of its citizens are working, German observers of the
Berlin property market are extremely cautious.


But who cares !!

"The €35-million deal we are trying to secure now would land us with 900 apartments, 30% of which need renovation. What we are offering in all our properties is a net return per annum of 7% from rental incomes,"
I don't know wheter to laugh or to cry as the total utter complete madness, and am a little ashamed to call myself Irish when this kind of insanity is spreading to other shores where the locals have sense but now this Irish pyramid money is going to distort their market.
What about the locals that are trying to get on the property ladder?!! - Irish pyramid money is pricing them out.

God, the soon our lunacy/greed has cold water poured over it the better for all concerned.

What expecially galls me is that all this is being funded by the FTB'rs at the bottom of the pyramid with their 35 year 100% dual income slavery mortgage rates.
 
Any word on any auctions this week? I know a local house was for auction today. Wonder if it sold well above AMV.

Clare Road, Drumcondra was sold at auction today by GWD - guiding €1mn it sold under the hammer @ €1.35mn

Roy

Several other interesting ones coming up over the next few weeks in Glasnevin / Drumcondra for auction.......
 
Clare Road, Drumcondra was sold at auction today by GWD - guiding €1mn it sold under the hammer @ €1.35mn

I would have expected that to go for much more than €1.35M

The last one auctioned on Clare road was St Judes, No 19 Clare Road - it sold for €1.26M but that was in (Edit: April) 2005, over a year ago.
 
I would have expected that to go for much more than €1.35M

The last one auctioned on Clare road was St Judes, No 19 Clare Road - it sold for €1.26M but that was in August 2005, over a year ago.

Whathome - it went 35% over the guide! The house had a great back garden (well loads of potential anyway), but the 4th "bedroom" wouldn't actually house a single bed and was really only fit for an en suite to the master bedroom. I reckon it needed 200k+ (and 6-9 months) to get it to a decent standard. So, 1.35 + .200 + .120 for stampers brings total cost to almost 1.7mn - think that's questionable in terms of value. Oh and getting PP for the alterations might not be a piece of cake either - the 2nd last one on that road was sold 3-4 years ago and the buyers have still not moved in. Hope it works out for the buyers - brave people.

Roy

Roy
 
Whathome - it went 35% over the guide! The house had a great back garden (well loads of potential anyway), but the 4th "bedroom" wouldn't actually house a single bed and was really only fit for an en suite to the master bedroom. I reckon it needed 200k+ (and 6-9 months) to get it to a decent standard. So, 1.35 + .200 + .120 for stampers brings total cost to almost 1.7mn - think that's questionable in terms of value. Oh and getting PP for the alterations might not be a piece of cake either - the 2nd last one on that road was sold 3-4 years ago and the buyers have still not moved in. Hope it works out for the buyers - brave people.

Roy

Roy
Economic Darwinism?
 
The house had a great back garden (well loads of potential anyway), but the 4th "bedroom" wouldn't actually house a single bed and was really only fit for an en suite to the master bedroom. I reckon it needed 200k+ (and 6-9 months) to get it to a decent standard. So, 1.35 + .200 + .120 for stampers brings total cost to almost 1.7mn - think that's questionable in terms of value. Oh and getting PP for the alterations might not be a piece of cake either - the 2nd last one on that road was sold 3-4 years ago and the buyers have still not moved in. Hope it works out for the buyers - brave people.


Today's sale, 11 Clare Road, Sold for €1.35M : [broken link removed]=

It sounds like it was in very similar condition to the last one that sold on Clare Rd, No. 19 St Judes....
[broken link removed]

Interestingly, the AMV for No. 19 Clare Road was €800,000 and it was sold by Lisney for €1.26M, a year and a half ago. It was actually sold in April 2005.

So very similar properties only a few doors away from each other in similar condition sold 18 months apart with an increase in price of only 7%.

If I was the vendor, I would have been very disappointed with the result today comparing it to the previous sale 18 months earlier. Very much at the lower end of expectations I would think.

There's a pic on No 19 Clare Road in this Lisney half season report from 2005. (Search for Clare).
[broken link removed]

So either Redbricks in Drumcondra are underperforming the property market in general or today's sale of No. 11 at €1.35M could be more evidence that the market is weakening.
 
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