Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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bearishbull said:
The fact is prices will slow to the rate of inflation at most sometime in next 16 months.
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The property market turned lower quite quickly in 2001 even before 9/11 (allowing for time lag in ESRI data). I see things moving in a very similar pattern this year, when the data catches up over the next month or two, we'll see a rapid change. Not prices falling through the floor but definitely drops showing up in the ESRI/PTSB index before the end of this year.

Some people think it takes a long time for a property market to stall and turn but it can happen quite quickly as the following data from 2001 shows:

ESRI/PTSB National House Prices
Dec-00 174,071
Jan-01 175,939
Feb-01 176,717
Mar-01 178,974
Apr-01 181,075
May-01 181,853
Jun-01 182,475
Jul-01 184,265
Aug-01 185,899
Sep-01 185,562 (turning point)
Oct-01 184,032
Nov-01 183,253
Dec-01 181,697
Jan-02 180,141
Feb-02 181,386
 
whathome said:
The property market turned lower quite quickly in 2001 even before 9/11 (allowing for time lag in ESRI data). I see things moving in a very similar pattern this year, when the data catches up over the next month or two, we'll see a rapid change. Not prices falling through the floor but definitely drops showing up in the ESRI/PTSB index before the end of this year.

Some people think it takes a long time for a property market to stall and turn but it can happen quite quickly as the following data from 2001 shows:

ESRI/PTSB National House Prices
Dec-00 174,071
Jan-01 175,939
Feb-01 176,717
Mar-01 178,974
Apr-01 181,075
May-01 181,853
Jun-01 182,475
Jul-01 184,265
Aug-01 185,899
Sep-01 185,562 (turning point)
Oct-01 184,032
Nov-01 183,253
Dec-01 181,697
Jan-02 180,141
Feb-02 181,386
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Very interesting. I know economic growth was slowing around then as well, so it is something to be aware of given some of the incoming information on the US economy. I'd be surprised if we saw price drops showing up in the ESRI/PTSB index before next summer but I wouldn't rule it out completely.

I'm sure Hooke & McDonald have a press release already drafted - "Soft landing is in. Shows the sound fundamentals of the market. Great time to buy."
 
whathome said:
The property market turned lower quite quickly in 2001 even before 9/11 (allowing for time lag in ESRI data). I see things moving in a very similar pattern this year, when the data catches up over the next month or two, we'll see a rapid change.
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I wonder if the slew of bad news coming out of other markets (US, Aus etc.) will further quicken the change of sentiment in Ireland
 
room305 said:
I'm sure Hooke & McDonald have a press release already drafted - "Soft landing is in. Shows the sound fundamentals of the market. Great time to buy."
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Yep - and then next August:

"Our research shows that household pets now make up 32.7% of first time buyer numbers"
 
We are "special" Keano , neither logic nor gravity is applicable to us.

Here is the new Dodgy Estate Agents Bill

http://www.entemp.ie/publications/commerce/2006/NCAUCPDBILL18Aug06.pdf

The first half is all a new agency being created, page 54 onwards is the new law

EAs (and the Irish Times property pages) will be criminals if this goes thru as we can see .

unfair commercial practises which could

"materially distort economic behaviour"

"making exaggerated statements"

"misleading action if it contains false information"

"omit material the average customer needs" (like 'needs some work' means 'no roof' in reality )

"refusing to show the advertised item"

"using editorial content"

It goes on and on and on, the FFers who are EAs or who are involved in the EA /cute hoor gene pool will want to sting up Mic heál Martin for this of course and the Irish Times will be on their side...just you see what the Times does tomorrow and Saturday :D
 
whathome said:
I see things moving in a very similar pattern this year, when the data catches up over the next month or two, we'll see a rapid change. Not prices falling through the floor but definitely drops showing up in the ESRI/PTSB index before the end of this year.
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Any guesses on what that figure will be. I gonna say 0.1% growth.
 
anything below inflatoin is negative REAL growth. We are there already.
 
2Pack said:
anything below inflatoin is negative REAL growth. We are there already.
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The growth rate earlier this year will offset any negative growth for the remainder of the year. Next year should be negative in real terms though.
 
phoenix_n said:
The growth rate earlier this year will offset any negative growth for the remainder of the year. Next year should be negative in real terms though.
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I mean month to month in 2006 (not the annual rolling average) and I never heard of Roubini :D
 
Published Figures , Nope.

The PRTB and The CSO cannot be matched because we do not know when the deal was done. Assume the most recent (settled in June) PRTB figures refer to March/April Deals at the top of the froth.

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The CSO figures are more up to date.

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I'll wager that CPI inflation runs at 0.4% a month in the economy now but that house prices are no longer rising at a rate over 0.4% a month, now in August that is .

Stats to prove this will not be released until November so try me then :D
 
Raskolnikov said:
I'm not yet convinced that the fury of the Irish Property Pyramid scheme is spent yet.
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I do expect a few dead cat bounces of course. You know that a builder of a small scheme with no sales often offloads a house/flat on each of his subbies to pay their bills. I could point you at a specimen estate from 2001 during the last schlumpette where the houses were already built and not shifting at all...so thats how they were removed from the market and presented as 'sold' .

Once the builder sold his a veritable profusion of EA signs appeared in front of the others.

Daft kindly told us of a real time drop in ASKING prices in each of May June and July on the previous month so I will call March and April 2006 as the peak of the lunacy.

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But no :( , its not over yet.
 
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This one-bed in St Annes in Milltown (500sq ft) has been on the market for a couple of months for 510,000

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This is a similar one-bed also on the market for a couple of months for 515,000. It's about 515sq ft

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This one-bed also in St Annes (732sq ft) has just been put on the market for 535,000. 200sq feet more in the same development for only 20,000 extra. If I owned any of the first two apartments I'd be hunting down that vendor with murder in mind. Fairly devalues the first two, wouldn't you think
 
Raskolnikov said:
I'm not yet convinced that the fury of the Irish Property Pyramid scheme is spent yet.
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New builds seem to be holding up alright - well apart from Adamstown. They're still struggling to sell phase 1 and have dropped the price of their one bed apartments.

They may have been overpriced to begin with - I couldn't understand why people were attracted to Adamstown when second hand houses in nearby Lucan were more desirable - lower density, bigger gardens...and better value even when you include stamp duty. What is it about new builds that get people so excited?
 
whathome said:
New builds seem to be holding up alright - well apart from Adamstown. They're still struggling to sell phase 1 and have dropped the price of their one bed apartments.

They may have been overpriced to begin with - I couldn't understand why people were attracted to Adamstown when second hand houses in nearby Lucan were more desirable - lower density, bigger gardens...and better value even when you include stamp duty. What is it about new builds that get people so excited?
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The same thing puzzles me greatly,why do the irish queue overnight to buy in crappy build estates with no services and poor build quality when beautiful,well build cheaper secondhand houses are readily available in better locations,it's just crazy.

It must be something to to with having to have things new, i saw a prime example of this in drogheda where new houses were going for 750,000 in an estate on the edge of town,you could have got a much better secondhand house and have change in your back pocket and yet people were supposedly mad to buy them !:confused:
 
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