Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Howitzer said:

No, you have not read it correctly.

The person agrees a fixed mortgage in, say, May and draws down in August after snagging. He expected the rate to be the same as what was agreed when he signed the mortgage contract with the bank, instead the fixed rate changed in the interim.

This is a very common issue and one which hasn't arisen atall, to anyone, in Ireland in 5 years until this year.

Has anyone read that thread correctly or are youse just dying to jump on the bandwagon?

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That's the way I read it too Howitzer.

owenm said:

What scares me most is the vicious circle when building slows down, jcb drivers, bricklayers, plumbers, electricians, tilers, carpenters, readymix drivers, plasterers, painters, window fitters, roofers, surveyors, architects, builders providers, cement factory's, timber importers, window manufacturers, DIY outlets, curtain makers, electrical resellers, furniture shops, lighting shops, carpet shops, tile outlets.......

How many of you know anyone who does one of these for a living?

They all spend money in pubs, travel agents, bookmakers, butchers, car showhouses, the local spar, petrol stations, antique shops, Blockbuster, toy shops, mothercare, argos, HMV, Tesco....

The old adage: We employ ourselves, is illustrated here. Their is nothing to relish in a fall in prices. To those of you who held off buying anticipating a crash would do well to remember that when money is cheap houses are dear, when houses are dear........

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Got the new issue of the Golden Pages yesterday; 16 pages of attic conversion companies, 15 pages of electricians, 15 pages of conservatories.... all paid for with cheap credit and remortgages. House prices don't have to drop for the economy to go pear-shaped.

gearoidmm said:

Got the new issue of the Golden Pages yesterday; 16 pages of attic conversion companies, 15 pages of electricians, 15 pages of conservatories.... all paid for with cheap credit and remortgages. House prices don't have to drop for the economy to go pear-shaped.

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Funny you should mention those attic conversion companies and conservatory builders. If prices fail to rise or even fall a little (thus breaking the mytical property ladder) these guys might be the only resort for growing families unable to move out of their "starter" homes.

I think the banks and estate agents are in a much more precarious situation.

Fergal: Well that's your prediction, not DCC's.

I said Predicated, not predicted. When you learn the difference, come back and we'll debate the point.

Fergal: Central bankers have never worked before to keep base inflation at 2%. The banks are offering long term fixed rate mortgage at 5%.

The European Central Bank is RAISING INTEREST RATES TO COMBAT INFLATION. Thats the work they are doing to keep inflation at 2%. Your magical long term fixed mortgages are for 3 or 5 years. Thats not long term on a 35 year mortgage.

Fergal: The sharp downturn is from 15% pa to only 3% pa. aka soft landing. They are NOT predicting a fall in values let alone a crash.

Perhaps you would like to support that with a link?

Fergal: Credit has always been available, jobs were not.

Did you even read the thread? This much credit has never been available, due to low interest rates. Or are people buying houses in cash from their savings where you live?

Fergal: In 20 years time, wealth will transfer to Poland as it did to India and even China.

India and China are still third world countries. They have a fair bit of transferring yet to do, I'm sorry to tell you.

Fergal: I have no reference to determine the number.

What about a guess? And people breaking up find new partners and move in with them. Negligible.

Fergal: Because we're Irish and have always done so.

No harm to you Fergal, but thats the stupidest thing I've read so far on this thread. Sure didn't saint patrick drive out all the property crashes? Ireland hasn't even existed as a state for a century, how can we have these long term habits you're talking about? This is the kind of rubbish that caused the bubble in the first place. Don't forget, Ireland is different!

Fergal: Well its playing a good tune so far!

I wonder what kind of song you'll be singing when it snaps?

phoenix_n said:

Very valid points. However, IMO, speculation in the market over the last 12 months have pushed the instrictic value of a house from its true value to that of a speculative value. And i think that is the key. When the speculative nature has ceased then its true value will return. Couple that with slight panic in the market and even that true value can even slip.

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From your first postings I see you were one of the speculators just a few months ago or at least tried to be. Speculation hasn't just driven the market in the last 12 months its driven for the last 5 years. You've gained from the housing boom but more by pure luck than design.

Might be a new home price drop from Hooke and MacDonald

1 Bed apartments in Santry

Old price (cached 24th May) : €360,000


New price today : €350,000 - Reduced by €10,000
[broken link removed]
also shown here:

I promised not to list anymore second hand price drops because they were becoming so common that it was boring....but price drops on new developments are very interesting IMO.

whathome said:

This might be somewhat controversial....

Here is a new home price drop from Hooke and MacDonald

1 Bed apartments in Santry

Old price (cached 24th May) : €360,000


New price today : €350,000 - Reduced by €10,000
[broken link removed]

I promised not to list anymore second hand price drops because they were becoming so common that it was boring....but price drops on new developments are very interesting IMO.

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Don't think you're right here Whathome!! If you go into your first link, scroll up to Google cache, you'll find 'view current page'...the property is now priced at 375K not 360K...a rise of 15K.

Your second link is on MyHome and is not necessarily the same apartment. Apartments in this development (which is very popular BTW and in a great location) vary in size. It's also possible that this particular apartment was bought off plans and the vendor is trying to 'flip' it.

liteweight said:

Don't think you're right here Whathome!! If you go into your first link, scroll up to Google cache, you'll find 'view current page'...the property is now priced at 375K not 360K

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You might be looking at the price for a 2 bed

liteweight said:

Your second link is on MyHome and is not necessarily the same apartment. Apartments in this development (which is very popular BTW and in a great location) vary in size. It's also possible that this particular apartment was bought off plans and the vendor is trying to 'flip' it.

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You might be right liteweight but it's not a flipper, even the H&MD site says 350k

liteweight said:

Don't think you're right here Whathome!! If you go into your first link, scroll up to Google cache, you'll find 'view current page'...the property is now priced at 375K not 360K...a rise of 15K.

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From the current page

Number of Bedrooms: 1 Prices from: € 350,000
Number of Bedrooms: 2 Prices from: € 375,000

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Apologies Whathome, you're right, I was looking at a 2bed! I still wouldn't give too much credence to it though. The last one 360K might have been for a larger apartment in one phase and the 350K for a poky one in the next. H&MD do sell on properties for people, even when the developer hasn't sold out yet!!

As luck would have it, I made enquiries on these apartments recently. You'd be lucky to get one at either of the above prices, unless it's next to the lift or some such. Wasn't interested as ......wait for it.......yield would be too low!!

liteweight said:

Apologies Whathome, you're right, I was looking at a 2bed! I still wouldn't give too much credence to it though. The last one 360K might have been for a larger apartment in one phase and the 350K for a poky one in the next. H&MD do sell on properties for people, even when the developer hasn't sold out yet!!

As luck would have it, I made enquiries on these apartments recently. You'd be lucky to get one at either of the above prices, unless it's next to the lift or some such. Wasn't interested as ......wait for it.......yield would be too low!!

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Agreed - they are in a great location, unless you're a criminal - very near the garda station. You're correct, could be a smaller apartment although I thought all phases of Milners Square had been released.

room305 said:

Still selling and I will be happy to post a detailed summary of the experience once it's sold.

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You probably are in a better position than many posters here to gauge somewhat the sentiment of the current market. What impression did your EA give you? Have you been getting many queries ?
I understand you may not want to divulge much but have you learned more since beginning the process of selling ?

CNN Reports

Home Price Deep Freeze

USA Wide. And as they peaked about a year before we did (I am calling our peak for March/April 2006) we will be broadly in the same situation by this time next year.

The worst localised decline in a city in the US over that year was 11% but what about commuter belts for those cities. They are not surveyed at all.

Must research further !

I noticed a lot of asking price drops in Rathfarnam lately. Many of the houses towards the end of the myhome search have seen substantial price drops. One house caught my attention, it shows how speculators and amateur property "developers" can get caught in a weakening market.

This couple bought a house in Rathfarnam for 1.15M in June last year. They spent six months and €500,000 renovating it along with €103,500 in stamp duty. So a total spend of about €1,753,500. It failed to sell at auction in May and following the auction it was quoting €2.1M

Their story is told in this article:
http://www.propertyinvesting.net/cgi-script/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=default.db3744&command=viewonex

And now it has dropped to €1,750,000 on myhome.
[broken link removed]=

So after six months of what sounds like a horrific renovation project it's looking like a zero return. If it sells! If market sentiment had not changed , rising prices would have saved them but it's no longer a one-way bet.

Good find whathome , they were selling it private treaty for €1.9m in July thru sherryfitz (according to your article) so its really dropped less than 10% . Never mind auction guides

2Pack said:

Good find whathome , they were selling it private treaty for €1.9m in July thru sherryfitz (according to your article) so its really dropped less than 10% . Never mind auction guides

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Yeah, auction guides are a joke but this wasn't the AMV
After it was withdrawn from the auction in May, it was quoting €2.1M (private treaty)
Look under Dublin 16:
[broken link removed]

must have dropped to 1.9M before dropping further to 1.75M

whathome said:

I noticed a lot of asking price drops in Rathfarnam lately. Many of the houses towards the end of the myhome search have seen substantial price drops. One house caught my attention, it shows how speculators and amateur property "developers" can get caught in a weakening market.

This couple bought a house in Rathfarnam for 1.15M in June last year. They spent six months and €500,000 renovating it along with €103,500 in stamp duty. So a total spend of about €1,753,500. It failed to sell at auction in May and following the auction it was quoting €2.1M

Their story is told in this article:
http://www.propertyinvesting.net/cgi-script/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=default.db3744&command=viewonex

And now it has dropped to €1,750,000 on myhome.
[broken link removed]=

So after six months of what sounds like a horrific renovation project it's looking like a zero return. If it sells! If market sentiment had not changed , rising prices would have saved them but it's no longer a one-way bet.

Click to expand...

That must be one hell of a monthly repayment going out the door, I don't think that they will be in a position to hold out much longer and could have to drop the price again just to get a buyer

whathome said:

I noticed a lot of asking price drops in Rathfarnam lately. Many of the houses towards the end of the myhome search have seen substantial price drops. One house caught my attention, it shows how speculators and amateur property "developers" can get caught in a weakening market.

This couple bought a house in Rathfarnam for 1.15M in June last year. They spent six months and €500,000 renovating it along with €103,500 in stamp duty. So a total spend of about €1,753,500. It failed to sell at auction in May and following the auction it was quoting €2.1M

Their story is told in this article:
http://www.propertyinvesting.net/cgi-script/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=default.db3744&command=viewonex

And now it has dropped to €1,750,000 on myhome.
[broken link removed]=

So after six months of what sounds like a horrific renovation project it's looking like a zero return. If it sells! If market sentiment had not changed , rising prices would have saved them but it's no longer a one-way bet.

Click to expand...

Great work Whathome. Please continue. Remember individual drops in asking prices is not in themselves significant but when seen to be a part of a trend it is very significant.

Sherry FitzGerald withdrew Dun Chuilinn on Cruagh Road, Rockbrook in Rathfarnham at €1.925 million and is now quoting €2.1million.

If they actually had a bidder at 1.95 I wouldn't be too pleased with Sherry Fitz advice to withdraw it, could have cost them 150k

phoenix_n said:

Great work Whathome. Please continue. Remember individual drops in asking prices is not in themselves significant but when seen to be a part of a trend it is very significant.

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Yeah, I don't want to list them all - will drive people mad but if you do a myhome search on rathfarnam and look at the last few pages, most of those properties have dropped in price.