Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[whathome]

obviously, if i dont get any takers I can afford to take a reduced price.

My feeling is that the market is weakening currently. I would be inclined to sell earlier rather than later this season for two reasons:

1. Take advantage of any pre-interest-rate-rise-approved buyers still knocking about.

2. Get it on the market before the next batch of supply weakens your selling position even further.

 

[Howitzer]

Pat McArdle made an interesting statement in an sbpost article yesterday:

"The trick will be to manage supply so that an overhang of unsold houses does not materialise and generate a negative price spiral"

[broken link removed]

How exactly will supply be "managed" so that prices don't drop? I wonder what is the "trick"? This sounds like a very unusual statement coming from the chief economist at a lending institution. Is there a way to legally control supply in a market in order to keep prices high?

From the Competition Authority website homepage:

When does the Competition Authority take action?
"Anti-competitive behaviour occurs when firms agree to fix prices, limit output, divide business between them or abuse their market power, with no benefits to consumers"
http://www.tca.ie/

Supply WAS actually managed last sping. Anyone who was seriously looking at the market last January/February/March will have noticed, and it was picked up in the press, that there was a 3/4 week delay in bringing the first new builds to the market. The season effectively started later than usual but the interest was by then huge and prices surged. This was in response to the fact that new house prices last year (2005) stalled somewhat because the stamp duty changes of 2004 made them less appealing to FTBs. The first rate rise in Dec 05 would have also been on agents minds.

So agents can indeed manipulate the market. It just remains to be seen whether the same trick can be pulled again.

Whether this constitues the behaviour of a collective monopoly is open to debate but may be noted if last Spring does become the high water mark for the Irish property market. I believe it will be.

 

[whathome]

Anyone who was seriously looking at the market last January/February/March will have noticed, and it was picked up in the press, that there was a 3/4 week delay in bringing the first new builds to the market.

I had noticed that, new builds seemed to arrive on the market in the same week, a few weeks after prices had taken a supply-starved jump. One particular agent seems to have a very high percentage of the new build market.

 

[Guest107]

One particular agent seems to have a very high percentage of the new build market.

and can maybe manipulate an apparent 'Housing shortage in Dublin' maybe ????

and can maybe release peripheral developments before the better located ones to get the deposits in

and can set the level of deposits very high (my booking deposit on my first house was 1000 for a 66000 house or 1.5% at the time. What is the typical booking deposit now ???

 

[Howitzer]

And here's the story, 03 Feb 06.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1553625&issue_id=13623

And the reason? Aparently the architects drawing got delayed. In every estate agent.

Architects' drawings were delayed. Brochure layouts were held up. Printing was put off. And with the property buying public now so used to really streamlined launches, no-one was interested in going into the market-place ill-prepared.

And another article in the same issue.

Property demand is set to rise
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1553471&issue_id=13623

 

[Guest107]

funny how not a single builder or developer in all of Dublin was ready to go in February....until the pricing frenzy erupted in March/April when all the brochures materialised and launches were seamlessly managed and the FTBs were in an absolute tizzy .

 

[whathome]

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1553471&issue_id=13623

Thanks for the link Howitzer

From that February article :
"In a recent sale with nine prospective buyers as many as four were planning to hold onto their existing houses. Low interest rates and interest only loans make it easier to hold on to properties"

This is one of the major reasons why I think the autumn season will be very different to spring: the hangers-on won't be hanging on anymore. Higher interest rates and worry in the market will cause them to be far more likely to sell when trading up.

 

[liteweight]

and can set the level of deposits very high (my booking deposit on my first house was 1000 for a 66000 house or 1.5% at the time. What is the typical booking deposit now ???

3K on 345K property. Others ask for 5K. This deposit is refundable if you fail to sign contracts.

 

[TallSpoon]

Hello all,
first time poster on this thread so go easy.
I couldnt help but notice that 5 or six weeks ago when 2Pack made his observation there were around 14000 properties on Daft and now six weeks later there are over 16,200. Does nobody else think that this might be a significant indicator that people have started dumping property or maybe that nobody is buying. This is supposed to be the quiet period.

Tallspoon sits back and awaits mauling ;0)

 

[conor_mc]

Hello all,
first time poster on this thread so go easy.
I couldnt help but notice that 5 or six weeks ago when 2Pack made his observation there were around 14000 properties on Daft and now six weeks later there are over 16,200. Does nobody else think that this might be a significant indicator that people have started dumping property or maybe that nobody is buying. This is supposed to be the quiet period.

Tallspoon sits back and awaits mauling ;0)

It's not the most scientific method, but I'll tell you what, if it remains that high into Sept/Oct then I'll buy into it!

 

[bearishbull]

Hello all,
first time poster on this thread so go easy.
I couldnt help but notice that 5 or six weeks ago when 2Pack made his observation there were around 14000 properties on Daft and now six weeks later there are over 16,200. Does nobody else think that this might be a significant indicator that people have started dumping property or maybe that nobody is buying. This is supposed to be the quiet period.

Tallspoon sits back and awaits mauling ;0)

The reason why is it was very quiet due to middle of summer, it would be normal for it to increase in august through to mid september. Please! no more DAFT figures I hope we would try to be more rigourous in our analysis of any numerical data.

 

[whathome]

The reason why is it was very quiet due to middle of summer, it would be normal for it to increase in august through to mid september. Please! no more DAFT figures I hope we would try to be more rigourous in our analysis of any numerical data.

Would have to disagree with you there bearishbull, inventory usually sells off in the summer. Very little of it sold off this summer and we're left with an overhang heading into the new season. New supply doesn't usually start to appear until early September but this year inventory levels appear to be rising earlier. Quite a few houses have re-appeared having been sale-agreed previously also.

 

[liteweight]

Well, the Estate Agents seem to be starting early. Got the first of the usual 'let us sell your house for you...others sold in your area' etc. etc.,put through letterbox today. It begins............

 

[Champions]

1 bed in Cork put on market in May with asking price of €220K. reduced to €210K in June. now on offer for last two months at €195K. It will probably go down again soon

Crap one bed ground floor apartment in a crap area..........hardly a true reflection of the market

 

[miju]

Crap one bed ground floor apartment in a crap area..........hardly a true reflection of the market

can i ask why when anyone posts evidence anecdotal or otherwise of price drops that it's almost rubbished by the "other side" (for want of a better term)

if you ask me that apt is your typical bog standard shit apartment in shit location / commuter land / FTB property which would make that a true reflection of the market

also noticed that particular property seems to be an investment property which makes it all the more interesting

 

[liteweight]

can i ask why when anyone posts evidence anecdotal or otherwise of price drops that it's almost rubbished by the "other side" (for want of a better term)

if you ask me that apt is your typical bog standard shit apartment in shit location / commuter land / FTB property which would make that a true reflection of the market

also noticed that particular property seems to be an investment property which makes it all the more interesting

I wouldn't call a handful of posts evidence of a price drop! There are lots of reasons why price can drop at this time of year, e.g.slow market during summer and vendor wants to sell quickly, new 'trade up' ready and must get rid of apartment to avoid paying 2 mortgages/bridging. Vendor bought into 'funny money' prices in Spring and overvalued his property.

I can't tell whether this is a 'bog standard' apartment or not. A picture on MyHome doesn't tell you anything 'real' about the surrounding area, the quality of the apartment or anything else for that matter!

For each property found on MyHome, where the price has gone down, there'll be another who got way over what they were looking for!! Look at the 'to sell or not to sell' thread and you'll see a poster who was surprised he got 50K over his asking price!!

To insist on posting various homes/apartments whose prices have dropped is indicative of nothing IMO. To quote the amount of properties for sale on Daft is indicative of nothing! It may indicate that the Daft website is doing even more business as time goes on...nothing more.

 

[thewatcher]

Hello all,
first time poster on this thread so go easy.
I couldnt help but notice that 5 or six weeks ago when 2Pack made his observation there were around 14000 properties on Daft and now six weeks later there are over 16,200. Does nobody else think that this might be a significant indicator that people have started dumping property or maybe that nobody is buying. This is supposed to be the quiet period.

Tallspoon sits back and awaits mauling ;0)

I was skeptical of the daft figures,but then i'm talking to someone tonight who is trying to sell 2 properties in good estates in blanchardstown after 6 weeks,very few viewings and no offers.
I go on to myhome just for a look,and in 1 estate(not where their selling) alone there are 8 properties all around the same price,now something tells me if someone wants to get out of there,their going to have to drop the price.What happens if the other one's follow suit ?

I've a feeling there could be a lot of property for sale in september !.

 

[whathome]

What's interesting is that the apartment has dropped by another 10k to €185,000 on daft.

Asking price drops are very important in helping to gauge the market. It's very unusual to have so many price drops in such a short period of time. Everybody wants more evidence than a handful of posts but everytime anyone shows evidence, it's rubbished.

As liteweight says, there are properties that achieve in excess of their asking price with no evidence. Likewise many properties do not achieve their asking price, again with no evidence of this fact. There are so many asking price drops occurring that it would make this thread utterly boring if they were all presented. With the weakening market it will become a more common phenomenon.

 

[messyleo]

To quote the amount of properties for sale on Daft is indicative of nothing! It may indicate that the Daft website is doing even more business as time goes on...nothing more.

have to second this - the increase in the number of properties could well be down to more people knowing about the site. my parents only heard about daft a few weeks back! Also HOK have just started (in the lat month or so) using it to list all their properties and hadn't been doing so before, which would certainly count for several hundred I'd imagine.

 

[phoenix_n]

I wouldn't call a handful of posts evidence of a price drop! There are lots of reasons why price can drop at this time of year, e.g.slow market during summer and vendor wants to sell quickly, new 'trade up' ready..

Agreed but we are currently watching the market on a day to day basis so whilst minute changes in house prices do not constitute a trend it is nonetheless indicative.(bad stock like the one linked will take a hit first though )

In reality its all speculatiion at the moment as its summer so we will not know until Autumn.