Copy of "My shares have fallen 30%, what should I do?"

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This storm is different to previous ones for sure. The circuit breakers have been hit again on the S&P and all futures markets. Despite the FED intervening again.

There is going to be a lot of volatility in the market in the coming weeks, my gut feeling is that until we see the cases in the US stop increasing the markets will not calm.

At what level that is nobody knows, but what is clear is that the economy is going to feel this for a number of quarters.

Ultimately we are going to see bailouts similar to those provided to the banks during the crisis.
 
JSnowWinterfell said:
Ultimately we are going to see bailouts similar to those provided to the banks during the crisis.
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Have you got a link to any reliable source that agrees with your opinion here? Because it flies in the face of what the regulators are saying, and statements made over the weekend.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
The DB element is not mine. But the key to a 100% equity strategy is conviction; if times like now make you nervous and have you questioning the plan, then perhaps the plan’s not for you.

The “maybe this storm is different” narrative is a dangerous one. Different to what? 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, the Cubam Missile Crisis, World War II? Markets will recover.
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Outside of WWII, none of these crises were both demand and supply side.
 
It is now clear that the greatest bull run in history was as a result of being pumped full of steroids. It left the markets' immune system in shreds. And all the doctors can do is to pump in more steroids - but is this just delaying the melt down?
 
RedOnion said:
Have you got a link to any reliable source that agrees with your opinion here? Because it flies in the face of what the regulators are saying, and statements made over the weekend.
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I worded the sentence badly. I do not mean that banks will need bailouts, rather governments are going to provide bailouts for the economy, we have already seen a number of stimulus packages announced.

www.investopedia.com

U.S. COVID-19 Stimulus and Relief

This guide explains the stimulus and relief efforts undertaken by the U.S. government during the COVID-19 crisis. Learn more about the support for business and employment.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
Investadvice said:
Outside of WWII, none of these crises were both demand and supply side.
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Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly does this post mean? Or more, what are you trying to say?

I can fully understand the sentence in the context of oil prices, but in terms of the overall stock market conversation, I'm at a loss.
 
JSnowWinterfell said:
my gut feeling is that until we see the cases in the US stop increasing the markets will not calm.
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Agreed.

The market reaction so far is just emotional, and will continue to be until the spread is under control in the US.

Rational analysis of the medium term economic impact will not reach the markets for some time.

Markets are not down now because investors have made careful calculations about future economic prospects, they are down because trades are scared.

Are traders as scared now as they are going to be in a week, in a month, in two months.
 
RedOnion said:
Have you got a link to any reliable source that agrees with your opinion here? Because it flies in the face of what the regulators are saying, and statements made over the weekend.
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What did regulators say pre 2008?
RedOnion said:
Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly does this post mean? Or more, what are you trying to say?

I can fully understand the sentence in the context of oil prices, but in terms of the overall stock market conversation, I'm at a loss.
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Supply side - dried up companies can't produce
Demand side - dried up, no demand

What happened to stock markets during WWII, were they suspended?
 
RedOnion said:
I saw your post yesterday asking if banks were lending 10 times what they have in deposits, so I've a good understanding of your knowledge of banking.
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No need to be smart sir.

I'm looking to learn and giving my opinion.

Why not illuminate us with your vast stores of financial knowledge rather than being, frankly, a bit of a dick.
 
RedOnion said:
Yes, but even if you invested exclusively in European stocks, you're still up. Significantly.

You need to look at total return indexes, not just price. Large Cap European stocks pay higher dividends than US stocks.
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Yes but the point is that the european indices were never the rip roaring bull markets, they chugged along , the performance was nothing like the 1990s or even the period from 2002 to 2008, I mean look at the ftse now back at late 1990s levels.
in any case if as some people are suggesting that there could be a meltdown because the central banks created too much money it wont be restricted to the stock markets sure most of those new dollars are invested in the debt markets not in the stock markets, the total size of the global debt markets dwarfs the global stock marklets
 
joe sod said:
Yes but the point is
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You're still talking about price, not total return. I'll help you along and point you to an article to read:
www.thisismoney.co.uk

The FTSE 100 is down 20% in 20 years, so why invest for the long-term?

The FTSE 100 has gone nowhere in 20 years, so why are investors told to think long-term? That is the question those of us who advocate investing deserve to face.
www.thisismoney.co.uk www.thisismoney.co.uk

Please re-read the context of my post, which you "corrected" me on.

I know you'll make the same point again, but at least make it in the right context, with the right facts.
 
A bit of context, the S&P500 closed down 12% today, the 3rd largest drop in history surpassing the daily losses seen during the financial crisis. The FEDs monetary policy is not working, and we have yet to see the wider impact.

We are in unchartered territory.
 
I’m comfortable with losses. I’m not comfortable on missing out on the price cuts but each time you drop in can take an immediate 10% haircut right now
 
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