"Comparing Bitcoin to Ponzi Schemes is unfair...

Hats off to you @tecate it getting back to ATH is very surprising...you must feel good about 1.1.2030 right now!....but as I've said before our bet is a moment in time 1.1.2030 & the price then relative to the 2021 ATH.....with the Tether fraud still printing imaginary USDT's sitting in the British Virgin Islands.....& the conservatorship of Binance yet to begin....the spot BTC mkt can trade anywhere at any price........all this fakery & market manipulation is being slowly dismantled by the US/EU authorities (see for example FTX/Caroline Ellison Tether revelations for how literally billions of fake Tether dollars are sloshing around at any one time inside the cryptoverse keeping marginal pricing afloat https://cryptodaily.co.uk/news-in-c...f-secret-credit-line-at-center-of-ftx-fallout ).....this dismantling of the fake money used to paint the tape, wash trading etc......is the process of being dismantled Binance being step 1....Tether later......1.1.2030 will be plenty of time to have this fringe mkt tidied up by the Feds but mainly as I've always said Tether is at the core....after Tether is gone or forced into proper reserve accounting.... we'll see the 'real' price BTC trades at when two consenting unrelated 3rd parties with REAL money (not fake counterfiet USDT's) inside KYC'd accounts (so you know they are actually unrelated) are paying for it!
 
The wager was BTC to reach its previous ATH BY 2030 not ON a specified date in 2030. Wager conditions met.
 
Ok, rub it in, I deserve it but I can take it.
A couple of serious points. John Kelleher (Investopedia resident cultist) very correctly asserted that ultimately the only "utility" that will sustain bitcoin is as a medium of exchange as Nakoto intended it. This surge of demand for ETFs is about as far away from medium of exchange as the spin of a roulette wheel.
And the Holy Grail that the cultists now dare to dream about is institutional acceptance as a routine component of a diversified portfolio. Take this typical offering from Coindesk.
A little bit of Black-Litterman hubris might swoon the gullible but it won't wash with professional institutional investors. Note how the argument in this quote is pitched at conservative institutional investors - 7% volatility target vs 20% volatility of your typical stock index. But under the smokescreen of a B-L diversification play the central assumption is that bitcoin will almost certainly outperform the stockmarket by 10% over the coming year with more plausible assumptions that it will outperform by 20% or 30%. On those assumptions an institutional investor with a equity type risk appetite should be 100% in bitcoin.
It ain't goin' to happen!
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
John Kelleher (Investopedia resident cultist) very correctly asserted that ultimately the only "utility" that will sustain bitcoin is as a medium of exchange....
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but is that assertion correct, I wonder if we can find some evidence that he's wrong...
Duke of Marmalade said:
This surge of demand for ETFs is about as far away from medium of exchange as the spin of a roulette wheel.
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oh there it is.
Duke of Marmalade said:
And the Holy Grail that the cultists now dare to dream about is institutional acceptance as a routine component of a diversified portfolio.
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As I mentioned in another comment, it's already happening. "Get a complete portfolio in one ETF." All of them contain some bitcoin exposure.
Duke of Marmalade said:
On those assumptions an institutional investor with a equity type risk appetite should be 100% in bitcoin. It ain't goin' to happen!
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Once again, some are already fairly heavily in, e.g. Michael Saylor. My risk aversion has never allowed me to do the same even though I have always thought the most likely outcome was that bitcoin would outperform all my other investments, and it has.
 
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Even some professionals have taken leave of their senses.

The FT Lex column estimated that the cost of mining one bitcoin is now $43,000 so, they say, that should set a floor for the price of bitcoin!

I know I sound like a broken record, but the price will eventually match the value i.e. zero. It is astonishing that it keeps recovering and that it is fooling so many people for so long. The cost of producing something worthless does not give it value.

Brendan
 
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DazedInPontoon said:
but is that assertion correct, I wonder if we can find some evidence that he's wrong...oh there its is
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Kelleher's argument was that whilst speculation can sustain bitcoin for a while it ultimately has to be justified by attaining a utility which is of USE. It can not survive on speculation indefinitely. "Store of value" is a euphemism for speculation. I agree with John, you don't, fair enuff
DazedInPontoon said:
As I mentioned in another comment, it's already happening. "Get a complete portfolio in one ETF." All of them contain some bitcoin exposure.
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Of course we know that none of this means that Fidelity believe in crypto. They are both stirring up and catering for a market. Oh yes, they have to employ cultists who will swear by the White Paper or pretend to do so. This is not evidence that grown ups like the major pension funds, insurance companies and banks or even the Apples of this world have bought into the hype.
DazedInPontoon said:
Once again, some are already fairly heavily in, e.g. Michael Saylor.
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I do not regard Saylor as grown-up no more than I do Mr X.
DazedInPontoon said:
My risk aversion has never allowed me to do the same even though I have always thought the most likely outcome was that bitcoin would outperform all my other investments, and it has.
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Well done!
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Even some professionals have taken leave of their senses.

The FT Lex column estimated that the cost of mining one bitcoin is now $43,000 so, they say, that should set a floor for the price of bitcoin!
Click to expand...
Have you a link to that Boss? This cost of mining thing is the greatest pink fish of them all. The cost of mining follows the price not the other way round. If the price of bitcoin falls to $1 mining will still go on just as it did way back when. With all the halvings since then there will of course be much, much less CPU power applied to mining and I will probably be able to take up the activity on my laptop.
 
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Google Why bitcoin's price could still tumble and it will bring you in behind the paywall

The current cost of production — largely the electricity required by computers making the calculations for mining — is currently about $27,000, thinks JPMorgan. This offers a sense of the price floor for bitcoin. Immediately after the halving this will jump short term to around $50,000.


At some point the price rally will lose steam. Assume mining processing power falls by one-fifth then the cost of production will fall correspondingly to around $43,000. That offers a useful guide to where prices might find a floor once the current bout of mania subsides.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
"Store of value" is a euphemism for speculation.
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Indeed.
Duke of Marmalade said:
I agree with John, you don't, fair enuff
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fair enuff for me too.
Duke of Marmalade said:
Of course we know that none of this means that Fidelity believe in crypto. This is not evidence that grown ups like the major pension funds, insurance companies and
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Fidelity have actually been pretty pro-bitcoin for a long time, but this was not my point at all. My point was that anyone that might buy a "complete portfolio all in one ETF" from Fidelity will be indirectly buying bitcoin, regardless of whether they believe in it, or even know that they are. Bitcoin ETFs becoming a component of other ETFs is stealth adoption.
Duke of Marmalade said:
This cost of mining thing is the greatest pink fish of them all. The cost of mining follows the price not the other way round.
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Could not agree more! and it's so obvious that I am shocked every time I see that point being made.
 
I see your point now. Obviously if it became de rigueur for every or a majority of institutional fund managers to have say 3% crypto in their portfolio - that would be a bit of a game changer. But you are not claiming that.
 
And the graphic below. This is really, really terrible from LEX. When the Satoshi finally drops there is going to be an awful lot of egg on the faces of some "experts" as they realise it is all a BOHA. But note that, as I harp on about, the vast majority of experts will not be so exposed. the fact is that despite all the hype, and now being stoked up as a marketing ploy by the likes of Fidelity, only a few mavericks like Saylor and Mr X give it any credence whatsoever.
 
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Here's what ChatGPT says:

"
Predicting the future value of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is highly speculative and carries significant risk. The value of Bitcoin is influenced by various factors, including market demand, investor sentiment, regulatory developments, technological advancements, macroeconomic trends, and geopolitical events.
While some analysts and investors may offer opinions or predictions about Bitcoin's future price movements, it's important to recognize that these are often based on assumptions and speculation rather than concrete evidence. Cryptocurrency markets are notoriously volatile, and prices can fluctuate dramatically in short periods.
Some arguments supporting Bitcoin's potential for future value appreciation include its limited supply (there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins), growing adoption by institutional investors and corporations, increasing mainstream acceptance as a store of value or hedge against inflation, and ongoing developments in blockchain technology.
However, it's also crucial to consider the risks and challenges that Bitcoin faces, including regulatory uncertainty, security vulnerabilities, scalability issues, competition from other cryptocurrencies and digital assets, and the potential for market manipulation.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin will continue to rise in value or not is uncertain and depends on a complex interplay of various factors. Investors interested in Bitcoin should conduct thorough research, understand the risks involved, and consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon before making any investment decisions. Diversification across asset classes is also important to manage risk effectively."
 
4th Cycle........... very nice.

You must be filty rich....

Fair play
 
Brendan if you think bitcoin is going to 0, you are delusional
 
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