Clinton Vs Obama

madisona said:
neither of them will reach the required number of elected delegates but it will be very difficult for the superdelegates to justify overturn an elected delegate lead. The reason that they are there is apparantly to avoid a brokered convention. and it is practically impossible for her to overtake him in elected delegates. Florida and Michigan won't be seated as is, but they may be a rerun. I think Obama would probably win Michigan and even Hillary winning Florida by a large margin will not close the delegate gap too much.

Hillarys talk of Obama as VP is a tactic. She is trying to potray herself as the natural canditate. I doubt that she would offer and he would not accecpt
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The whole point of the superdelegate is to exercise independent judgment regardless of the delegate count. If Obama can't win the likes of Ohio then he will have a problem convincing them he is the candidate to win the white house. And Hillary will make up ground between now and the convention - Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico. Probably with Florida & Michigan too. The difference in delegates could be in only double digits. She may even hold the edge in the popular vote. She can also argue that the caucas system, where Obama has done so well, is inherently anti-democratic and if states allocated delegates on a winner takes all basis she would be ahead by a mile.

I agree that Hillary's talk of Obama as VP is a tactic. A clever one too. I can see the convention offering the VP ticket to Obama as a sweetner for losing the nomination saying it will give him a chance to get the experience and go for President himself in 2012/2016. That will be an interesting prospect as I really don't think Obama is interested - but he could end up looking arrogant and petulant if he rejects it out of hand. After all the talk of any party split being blamed on Hillary I think it could come full circle and people may say that of Obama...
 
Noboudy would want to be on a losing ticket, particularly one headed by Clinton. Obama would be mad to become Clintons running mate - would be a career ender.
 
Good point. In that case, if Obama can wait 4 years, he could easily see McCain beating Clinton and then being too old for the next election.
 
csirl said:
Noboudy would want to be on a losing ticket, particularly one headed by Clinton. Obama would be mad to become Clintons running mate - would be a career ender.
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But the Clinton-Obama match is touted as the dream ticket. Her experience & his bringing in young people & African American support.

Again, he has rejected the notion out of hand, which he is bound to do at this stage. I suspect he wouldn't be able to stomach being Hillary's understudy & would take exception to whatever role Bill might play in a Clinton administration.

Still, there is a long way to go in this election. Obama may yet put Hillary away but equally he may hang himself...
 
madisona said:
Hillarys talk of Obama as VP is a tactic. She is trying to potray herself as the natural canditate. I doubt that she would offer and he would not accecpt
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No doubt its a tactic but quite a good one. If she gets the nomination I think she would find it impossible not to offer him the v-p spot(particularly as she is practically after saying she will in recent comments)..if he rejects then he looks like a bad loser, petulant etc.. going against the apparent wishes of the majority of those who voted in the primaries(in polls democrat voters express admiration for both candidates)etc...

On the other hand as he has made no overtures about offering her the v-p ship he may start coming across as the one who is not prepared to give the democrats their dream ticket, who is prepared to split the party etc..

Personally I would prefer Hillary to get the nomination and I think if she does ,barring something unknown, she will scrape to a narrow victory over McCain. However I dont think she will win the nomination and Obama may either crush McCain or crash and burn. I have to say that I am resigned to Obama getting the nomination but try as I do I cant see what people see in him and I am beginning to dislike him as time goes by, I think this is because of the somewhat holier than thou attitude he and his campaign has adopted and I am far too much of a cynic to buy into his hope and change mantras.
 
csirl said:
Noboudy would want to be on a losing ticket, particularly one headed by Clinton. Obama would be mad to become Clintons running mate - would be a career ender.
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This assumes she would be beaten by McCain and I have a feeling that she would beat him particularly with Obama on the ticket. If she became president and had another v-p( obama having rejected it) then the v-p would then be the obvious candidate in 8 years time. Meanwhile Obama has 8 years of experience in the senate and 8 years of a voting record that can be attacked.
Interesting to wonder who might either pick as v-p if not each other...an older white man if you are Obama or a younger white/latino/ black man if you are Hilary...
 
I disagree - barring some unforeseen huge event, the election is already a foregone conclusion. McCain is going to win comfortably, probably with a low turnout due to voter apathy with the result not being in doubt.

You have to remember that it is the opinion of the US voters that count in the election, not the opinions of us foreigners and the non-US media. McCain is universally popular. While both Clinton and Obama do have their supporters, they also not liked by large portions of the US electorate and are both considered niche market candidates playing to minority dissaffected support - you know the types, anti-Iraq war, anti-whatever etc. As a general rule "anti" tactics do not win elections as people do not like negative candidates - John Kerry learned this last time around.

The other big issue is...."its the economy stupid".

Unfortunately for the Democrats, the recession in the US has coincided with the Democrats winning the Senate and Congress elections. You can bet your life that the Republicans will play on this in the run up to the election - "you elect Democrats and you get a recession". Whether or not the Democrats were responsible for the recession (which I suspect they werent) is irrelevant - its the voters perception that matters.
 
I'm inclined to agree with csirl here. I think McCain will win the Presidency along with a right-wing-possibly-evangelical type VP candidate. The evangelicals are suspicious of McCain, but might vote for him if one of their own was also on the ticket.

The more conservative-leaning Democrats might also vote McCain rather than Obama. I know race is not supposed to be a factor but in reality it will be. Obama won the Mssissipi primary with 90% of black votes cast. Clinton won 75% of the white vote.
 
Barring something of deluvian proportions McCain should walk it ....... providing the skeletons only rattle and don't make an appearance. Even those against the Iraqi adventure will get a bit gung ho just to stop Clinton and Obama.
 
The Leading House Democrat says her party will have a "dream team" on the presidential ticket this fall but it just won't be the team of Obama and Hillary.

Nancy Pelosi called a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket "impossible."
Some pundits say that before the scandal broke with Spitzer, Hillary had considered him for a possible running mate!

Spitzer used some very odd choices of words during his resignation. Like "To whom much has been given, much is expected." This from a guy who used $5,000-an-hour hookers! Is that what he said to them !

Also "It's time to return home for some healing". Is that because his wife has been repeatedly kicking him in the b*lls ?
 
Madangan said:
I think this is because of the somewhat holier than thou attitude he and his campaign has adopted .
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Is it just my perception or do all candidates, especially winning candidates adopt that kind of attitude in most of what they do ? Isn't that just the rough and tumble of politics ?
 
Turning nasty now - it was all too fairytale to be true. Obama won't dissassociate himself from a guy who says "God Damn America" and who compares 9/11 to Hiroshima. Also we now hear that we was "introduced" to Christianity. So he was brought up a Muslim in Indonesia.

No way is this guy goin' to be presi, which is a pity. But neither will Hillary. If she wins the demo candidacy it will be so bitter that she will lose the black vote which normally the Democratic party can rely on.

McCain is a really good bet at 2/1.
 
Harchibald said:
Turning nasty now - it was all too fairytale to be true. Obama won't dissassociate himself from a guy who says "God Damn America" and who compares 9/11 to Hiroshima. Also we now hear that we was "introduced" to Christianity. So he was brought up a Muslim in Indonesia.

No way is this guy goin' to be presi, which is a pity. But neither will Hillary. If she wins the demo candidacy it will be so bitter that she will lose the black vote which normally the Democratic party can rely on.

McCain is a really good bet at 2/1.
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Yeah thats interesting. Obama could well lose the important Jewish Vote even for having any distant association with Islam.

I've found Snopes to be a dependable site for clearing up rumors and urban legends , see below ...

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/anthem.asp
 
Fantastic links Stir. I don't know what to think but I am absolutely amazed that this guy has progressed so far given that he has indeed a considerable Muslim background even if he his not quite a paid up member of Al Quida.
 
McCain is a safe bet. The current infighting will split the vote and hand the election to McCain. Also with Nader running as a 3rd party candidate McCain is a shoe in.
 
Harchibald said:
Turning nasty now - it was all too fairytale to be true. Obama won't dissassociate himself from a guy who says "God Damn America" and who compares 9/11 to Hiroshima
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In fairness to the guy, it might loose him the nomination but it's exactly the thing that should win him it. Disassociating himself from the guy who married him, baptised his kids and has been his pastor for years would be the worst kind of political expediency.
 
diarmuidc said:
In fairness to the guy, it might loose him the nomination but it's exactly the thing that should win him it. Disassociating himself from the guy who married him, baptised his kids and has been his pastor for years would be the worst kind of political expediency.
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Don't you think he should have had better judgment than to follow this kind of person? I know what we have seen of his sermons is selective, but I personally would not bring my kids to hear this guy every week. There is no doubt, Obama is highly intelligent and he gave an amazing speech on Tuesday but his implication is that it is not okay to be interrogated over these kind of associations. I disagree. I also wonder if we will see the black community fall in behind this sentiment. I think there will be a lot of black people who will agree but also I think a lot won't.

Either way, he MAY still get the nomination. Not so sure about winning the Presidency.......
 
Obama (or is it Osama?) has said his background helps him understand Islam and this will be good for the world.

What is there to understand about ...

9/11?

Bali, Madrid, London?

suicide bombers in Iraq, Pakistan, Aghanistan, Israel etc.?

a fatwah on an author?

global outrage against a cartoon?

mob uprisings against a harmless middle aged teacher for calling a teddy bear M?

I have gone completely off this dude which is a pity coz I did like the idea of a black president.
 
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