Clinton Vs Obama

So it's Obama Vs McCain in November
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Comfortable McCain victory with low turnout due to it being a forgone conclusion by the time polling day arrives.
 
Narrow McCain victory real possibility as the Us public will just have gotten over their initial adoration with obama and if,like the emperor, he is is seen not to have any clothes, his fans may start to drift away in their droves.
If he does win the nomination I am fascinated as to his choice of running mate..he may be forced to offer it to Hillary(as proof that the democrats are not bitterly split) but why would she accept? She has more power as the senator from New York than as a vice pres with no possibility of becoming president in 8 years time. Oh happy times for us politics nerds,so much more interesting than Bertie and his sterling lodgements.
 
I read analysis recently that showed Clinton tends to win primaries (secret ballots) and Obama caucases (open votes). I found this quite worrying, but interesting, that although many Democrats claim to be liberal and open to a Black nominee, when it comes to putting pen to paper in private, they cannot do it.

The article (Economist I think) was written before Super Tuesday, so may have been disproved since.
 

Although he is great at the old platitude filled rhetoric there is also a lot of substance, intelligence and integrity to the man. I don't think that there is any chance that he would offer the VP slot to Hillary for a lot of reasons. I genuinely think that he dislikes her ( despite his protestations to the contrary) and it may also not be the best strategy to attract votes. Edwards was angling for it and am surprised that he has not yet endorsed Obama.



This is known as the Bradley effect. It was also used to explain why the Tories won the 1992 UK General election after being behind in opinion polls. apparantely some people were embarassed to admit that they were voting for them.

btw Bill Clinton explanation "the caucuses aren't good for her. They disproportionately favor upper-income voters who, who, don't really need a president but feel like they need a change."
 
It seems now that Hillary is so far behind that any tears from this point on are likely to be genuine.

Could she come back ?

One commentator noted she will need to fight back by:
"summoning hitherto unknown strength from that vast pool of goddessness deep within the core of her menopausal feminine essence"

Classic!
 
I have no problem if the democrats choose Obama over clinton, that is democracy. But good god the level of misogyny in this campaign is so incredibly depressing and quite frankly shocking.

What is shocking about it for me is that while it is generally accepted that overt rascism is a total no no (and rightly so) it seems almost impossible to criticize Obama without being accused of subtle rascism but its quite another thing to be sexist.

the quote in the last post may have been a joke but it is still indicative of the level of sexism in this entire campaign...and I am not suggesting that the Obama campaign is particularly guilty of this.. I am referring to the media commentators I have heard and read since before Iowa.

BTW I have never voted for a woman in an election because of gender, I have voted for some women and there are others I would not vote for in a blue fit !
 
Being objective I have to agree with Madangan, the whole "he's black so we have to vote" or "Oprah told us to do it" rhetoric is making a little bit of a mockery of the situation. I have read and wondered in the past about Oprah's political ambitions, and it is entirely possible that if O'bama does win the nomination he might not take the eloquent and decent John Edwards as VP, but actually call up Oprah!

Okay, why? Well, he'll get the votes of embittered lonely "you go girl". He'll grab attention with white "liberal" voters, and he'll shore up his support with the coloured/hispanic/asian voters. Plus the novelty value will win a few extra votes - plus she can bankroll the biggest campaign since Bush II was illegally made President and lost the last campaign.

There is a counterweight, the country could see through Oprah's plot to grab power witha puppet President and go for McCain, which could mean an extension of war into Iran in 2009.
 
Madangan said:
But good god the level of misogyny in this campaign is so incredibly depressing and quite frankly shocking.

...a joke but it is still indicative of the level of sexism in this entire campaign...
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IRON MY SHIRT
 
To (mis)quote our very own ex-Legal Eagle supremo ....... the last sting of a dying 'nonWasp'.
 
Being objective I have to agree with Madangan, the whole "he's black so we have to vote" or "Oprah told us to do it" rhetoric is making a little bit of a mockery of the situation
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Oprah tends to appeal to the "lowest common demoninator" in TV audience terms - trash TV for trash people. Who Oprah tells them to vote for has little impact on the result as most of these people probably havent even bothered to register to vote. Any election expert worldwide will tell you that the lowest voting rate is amongst the poor and uneducated. This is particularly true in the US where registration is not as automatic as here (where you get reminded annually). Also in the US, the polling stations tend to be a lot fewer and further apart than in Ireland. Most people in the US will not be within 5min walk of a polling station. The type of person who watches Oprah is the type of person who couldnt be bothered to travel to vote.

I know I'm making a very sweeping generalisation in the above, but there is a lot of truth in it.

We saw it last time around with John Kerry - popular in the trash media & Oprah on his side.
 
Couldn't agree more..... the degree and extent of the misogyny exhibited by the U.S. media is enough to make me a Feminist. The appeal of Obama decreases daily for me with his repetitious sound bites which are just plain boring at this stage. He appears to be more like a Pied Piper than a future president.

Since the race is far from over we should wait and see how Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania vote before writing Hillary off. From what I've read McCain would prefer to have Obama as his opponent rather than H.C. I also believe the Super Delegates are more likely to support a tried and tested super woman (H.C.) rather than an aspiring Superman. His day will come but not yet I'm hoping.
 
Madangan said:
with obama and if,like the emperor, he is is seen not to have any clothes, his fans may start to drift away in their droves.
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I dont get that argument. Does Obama not have policies like anyone else and are those policies not the policies of the democratic party ?????
If anyone didnt' have clothes, it would apply to Bush if you want my opinion.
With both Hilary and Obama I see unsubstantiated arguments against both which given my current level of knowledge about both can only be explained by veiled sexism/misogyny or racism. I mean why say something like that without backing it up ? Unless of course you work for the republican campaign team? Can anyone educate me here? Why shouldnt' Obama, as educated and atriculate as he is, not have policies ? The policies of all of them are pretty much opaque right now if you ask me.
 
Madangan said:
I have no problem if the democrats choose Obama over clinton, that is democracy. But good god the level of misogyny in this campaign is so incredibly depressing and quite frankly shocking.
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Maybe. But it could also be that people just don't like her. (I personally don't like her. Nothing to do with being a woman ...)
 
diarmuidc said:
Maybe. But it could also be that people just don't like her. (I personally don't like her. Nothing to do with being a woman ...)
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And that is absolutely fine.. I have no problem with that whatsoever as I said at the beginning of my post " I have no problem if the democrats choose Obama over clinton, that is democracy"



Stir crazy,

That is why I used the word if ! That particular post was expressing my opinion that a Mc Cain victory is a real possibility. Many people with far more years of watching US elections than me have said that they have never seen anything like the Obama factor.... and that he really is not being subjected to the scrutiny like other candidates. IF the current mania/adoration wears off between now and november(and that type of intensity is very hard to maintain ...by way of a muchlesser example see the initial euphoria generated by Howard Dean in 2004) then if he is more style than substance the wheels could slip off the wagon very quickly.

Btw voicing an opinion that there is misogyny in the media was not a criticsm of any other candidate and I made that clear in my post.
 
The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

All candidates have been fair game for gags. If anything I would say it's McCain gets most in the form of "Old (white) guy" jokes.


e.g. McCain
There was the suggestion from Hillary that "no country for old men" should be his campaign slogan.

John McCain says it’s been tested, retested, and tested again — and that’s just his prostate

Or, The New York Times is claiming John McCain, who is 71 years old, had an inappropriate relationship with a woman who is a Washington lobbyist. The good news is there’s no footage.

e.g Obama
Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail. She’s been speaking about Black History Month. She’s been saying, “America’s come so far that today, a black man can grow up and one day be vice president.”

Obama got 100% of the black vote in Ohio - A guy called Larry !

Also Obama's wife has been referred to as Mama Obama
 
Interesting that both Democratic candidates have issues over their names:

Hilary Blythe (Clinton is a stage name adopted by her husband).

Some of the US paper last week had an article to the effect that Barry Dunham, the junior senator from Illinois doesnt sound quite as exotic as "Barrack Obama".
 
still practically mathematically impossible for her to catch Obama in elected pledged delegates but I think Jon Stewart put it best

"I swear to God, I'm starting to think she's one of those Terminators. She can't be stopped. You throw them in the vat, you think it's over, and all of a sudden, the little droplets start to recoagulate, and she rises up -- I won Ohio!"
 
madisona said:
still practically mathematically impossible for her to catch Obama in elected pledged delegates but I think Jon Stewart put it best
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The whole maths thing is a red herring. The math won't be there for Clinton but neither will be possible for Obama which is why superdelegates are so important. Throw in the delegate count for Florida & Michigan (the Dem party will have to seat those delegates or have a re-run with it being so close) and the 2 are basically even.

The fact that Obama can't carry a big state outside Illinois - his home state - does not bode well for him. I think Clinton will get the nomination and ask Obama to run with her. Can't see him accepting though - he (and his wife! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN1qZMBE9Gc) really seem to dislike her.
 

neither of them will reach the required number of elected delegates but it will be very difficult for the superdelegates to justify overturn an elected delegate lead. The reason that they are there is apparantly to avoid a brokered convention. and it is practically impossible for her to overtake him in elected delegates. Florida and Michigan won't be seated as is, but they may be a rerun. I think Obama would probably win Michigan and even Hillary winning Florida by a large margin will not close the delegate gap too much.

Hillarys talk of Obama as VP is a tactic. She is trying to potray herself as the natural canditate. I doubt that she would offer and he would not accecpt
 
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