Sunday Times last week had an article which ( it was comparing Britain with US) stated that crime in the us of a was down 55% since 19?? and among younger people was down 71% over the same period. More or less stated this was due in no small part to Bill Clinton bringing in some legislation which stopped social welfare after 2 years and made people work for it. when they worked for it they had more respect for it etc etc.
Stephen Levitt in Freakonomics (Book) or you may be able to find some of his papers on-line, makes a pretty compelling case that a lot of the reasons why people think crime dropped in the US don't stand up to scrutiny.
The crime rate in the US did drop remarkably in the 1990's. It peaked right as the 80's were ending. Within a few years Crime dropped had from it's highest ever rate to levels that had not been seen since the 1950's
Levitt attributes about 10% of the drop to the fact that additional police were hired. The other 90% of the drop is the interesting bit.
He rules out the Booming Economy. He rules out Capital Punishment, Tougher Gun Control Laws, Innovative Policing.
He attributes the drop to a pretty controversial idea. The impact of Roe V's Wade legalising abortion. The children who weren't born thanks to Row vs Wade would have been hitting the age where they would have been getting involved in crime.
"Before Roe Vs Wade, it was predominantly the daughters of middle or upper class families who could arrange and afford a safe illegal abortion."
"What sort of women was most likely to take advantage of Roe vs Wade? Very often she was unmarried or in her teens or poor, and sometimes all three".
"One study has shown that the typical child who went unborn in the earliest years of legalised abortion would have been 50% more likely than average to live in poverty; he would have been 60% more likely to grow up with just one parent. These two factors, childhood poverty and a single-parent household are among the strongest predictors that a child will have a criminal future. Growing up in a single-parent home roughly doubles a child's propensity to commit crime. So does having a teenage mother. Another study has shown that low maternal education is the single most powerful factor leading to criminality."
If you are strongly pro life then this isn't pleasant reading. If you are strongly pro-life and also strongly in favour of thougher punishments for criminals then it's even harder.
Freakonomics is a great book. The chapter on crime is drawn from
"Understanding why crime fell in the 1990's: Four Factor's that explain the decline and six that do not" Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, no. 1 (2004) pp 163-190
(I know how people around here love evidence).
I've always been slap bang on the fence when it comes to abortion. I'll usually argue against extremists on either side. It's just too damn complicated an issue. But this is the first time that I've ever seen an argument either for or against that wasn't based on emotion.
I can't do justice to his papers here. If you're interested please buy the book. You won't regret it.
-Rd
Hmmmm.