"I personally think that HD-DVD is going to win out over Blu-Ray"
You could be right. I think though that this could be more problematic than the Betamax VHS battle. I think its going to be akin to XBOX, Playstation where the code involved is pretty similar but the top games are normally the reserve of one platform only.
Hence if you want to see Lord of the Rings High Def you'll have to buy a Sony Blu Ray but if you want say Star Wars you'll have to buy the HD-DVD. What a pain in the ass for the consumer. I half expect the current DVD format to die slowly for this reason.