Can Ireland retain a viable economy should severe climate change happen?
- Thread starter Allen
- Start date
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
I'd recommend an interesting book called collapse by Jared Diamond (I think that's his name). He outlines the effect of environmental change, both as a result of human activity (eg the deforestation of easter island) and climate change (effect of the mini ice age in the 14th century on the greenland norse) and how it contributed to the fall of various civilizations.
Not entirely relevant in today's terms because of globalization etc but he does try to put in some more modern examples (Haiti, Rwanda) and show how we could all be going in a similar direction if we're not careful.
A sudden sharp drop in average temperatures would have been disastrous for Ireland 40yrs ago but although it would probably do significant damage to agriculture, this is not so important these days. It's not like we'd be covered in ice all year round. Just have a climate more like Eastern Canada - colder and wetter.
I'd recommend an interesting book called collapse by Jared Diamond (I think that's his name). He outlines the effect of environmental change, both as a result of human activity (eg the deforestation of easter island) and climate change (effect of the mini ice age in the 14th century on the greenland norse) and how it contributed to the fall of various civilizations.
Not entirely relevant in today's terms because of globalization etc but he does try to put in some more modern examples (Haiti, Rwanda) and show how we could all be going in a similar direction if we're not careful.
A sudden sharp drop in average temperatures would have been disastrous for Ireland 40yrs ago but although it would probably do significant damage to agriculture, this is not so important these days. It's not like we'd be covered in ice all year round. Just have a climate more like Eastern Canada - colder and wetter.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
The problem would be the rise in sea levels that would obliterate most of Dublin for a start.
The Gulf Stream would be stopped by global warming (not freezing) and the resultant melting of the polar ice caps. The world would be warmer but Ireland would be colder as it would lose its temperate climate provided by the Gulf Stream. The melting of the ice caps would result in a significant rise in sea levels. Don't have the numbers handy but I know low lying cities like Dublin would be easily engulfed, if you forgive the bad pun.
The problem would be the rise in sea levels that would obliterate most of Dublin for a start.
The Gulf Stream would be stopped by global warming (not freezing) and the resultant melting of the polar ice caps. The world would be warmer but Ireland would be colder as it would lose its temperate climate provided by the Gulf Stream. The melting of the ice caps would result in a significant rise in sea levels. Don't have the numbers handy but I know low lying cities like Dublin would be easily engulfed, if you forgive the bad pun.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
I had always though the same about the sea levels but I read somewhere recently that the sea levels are not as much of an issue as we think. Most of the Arctic ice is already floating in the sea and as such is already displacing an equivalent amount of water (archimedes principle). Because of this, even if it all melted, there would be no significant rise in sea levels. The problem would be if there was melting of the antarctic ice cap which is on land. I haven't heard anyone saying that this is likely in the foreseeable future.
Maybe I'm just being a blind optimist - I'd hate to lose my nice house in Dublin.
I had always though the same about the sea levels but I read somewhere recently that the sea levels are not as much of an issue as we think. Most of the Arctic ice is already floating in the sea and as such is already displacing an equivalent amount of water (archimedes principle). Because of this, even if it all melted, there would be no significant rise in sea levels. The problem would be if there was melting of the antarctic ice cap which is on land. I haven't heard anyone saying that this is likely in the foreseeable future.
Maybe I'm just being a blind optimist - I'd hate to lose my nice house in Dublin.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
You're forgetting about Greenland! That has an icecap too! Some scientists estimate that sea levels will rise by 37 inches by 2100 as a result of the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland icecaps (as well as increased runoff from inland glaciers, which are disappearing at an alarming rate as well.)
Earlier this year there was a 3-part article in The New Yorker by Elizabeth Kolbert called "The Climate of Man." You may be able to find it online. Very scary stuff indeed. Conor Clery even plagiarised part of it fairly recently in the Irish Times (I pointed this plagiarism out to the IT's editor and got no response).
You're forgetting about Greenland! That has an icecap too! Some scientists estimate that sea levels will rise by 37 inches by 2100 as a result of the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland icecaps (as well as increased runoff from inland glaciers, which are disappearing at an alarming rate as well.)
Earlier this year there was a 3-part article in The New Yorker by Elizabeth Kolbert called "The Climate of Man." You may be able to find it online. Very scary stuff indeed. Conor Clery even plagiarised part of it fairly recently in the Irish Times (I pointed this plagiarism out to the IT's editor and got no response).
S
SteelBlue05
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
If our climate was to change so drastically as a result of what man is doing you would primarily be concerned about our ability to retain a viable economy?
Its that kind of thinking that has got us to the point where man is affecting the environment so badly.
Allen said:
If our climate was to change so drastically as a result of what man is doing you would primarily be concerned about our ability to retain a viable economy?
Its that kind of thinking that has got us to the point where man is affecting the environment so badly.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
Yes. Without a viable economy the Government would not receive taxes and society would basically break down. Not only would there be no social welfare, no health service etc. but there would be no money to import food or oil etc. for heating.
S
SteelBlue05
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
I'd be more concerned about the fact that we are on the way to messing up our only place to live, Earth, and how we would try to fix it.
My point is that thinking about economies and money in isolation has brought us to the point of serious climate change.
Allen said:
I'd be more concerned about the fact that we are on the way to messing up our only place to live, Earth, and how we would try to fix it.
My point is that thinking about economies and money in isolation has brought us to the point of serious climate change.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
Not sure which book you where refering to, but heres two of his most popular for anyone thats interested; http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393317552/002-8507357-1282464?v=glance&n=283155 (Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies) and http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670033375/002-8507357-1282464?v=glance&n=283155 (Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed).
gearoidmm said:
Not sure which book you where refering to, but heres two of his most popular for anyone thats interested; http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393317552/002-8507357-1282464?v=glance&n=283155 (Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies) and http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670033375/002-8507357-1282464?v=glance&n=283155 (Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed).
G
Guest127
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
one minute butter is bad for us,then its ok. fish is great for us,now it should only be once or twice a week. same with global warming.one expert comes up with his/her scenario. next some other scientist disputes the facts. what isn't at issue is that the ice caps , particulary in russia are melting at an alarming rate thus cooling down the seas. should it not make sense then that if the seas are cooler the ice caps will melt more slowly? theres a 'gulf' type stream off south africa which moves in and out from the shore and even disappears completely for a few months yearly and maybe 'our' gulf stream is now starting a cycle like this. who knows? or maybe its just nature doing what natures does best. disrupting the old order and has nothing to do with global warming. Don't know the answer.
one minute butter is bad for us,then its ok. fish is great for us,now it should only be once or twice a week. same with global warming.one expert comes up with his/her scenario. next some other scientist disputes the facts. what isn't at issue is that the ice caps , particulary in russia are melting at an alarming rate thus cooling down the seas. should it not make sense then that if the seas are cooler the ice caps will melt more slowly? theres a 'gulf' type stream off south africa which moves in and out from the shore and even disappears completely for a few months yearly and maybe 'our' gulf stream is now starting a cycle like this. who knows? or maybe its just nature doing what natures does best. disrupting the old order and has nothing to do with global warming. Don't know the answer.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
You sound like a member of the Bush administration, cuchulainn
The cooling of the sea caused by melting icecaps is, as far as I know, not significant. Far more significant is, for instance, the fact that smaller icecaps mean less sunlight reflected back into space, causing further warming, causing further melting. It's a vicious circle.
Yes, there are natural variations in climate over time. The difference is that the current warming phase is the first climate change to be caused by human activity. I think our best hope is that technology will change to offset the problem. One example of this is the artificial creation of additional cloud cover by using unmanned ships to spray water into the upper atmosphere. Hopefully there will be more innovations like this, as it seems unlikely that humanity will redress climate change by putting the collective good before local or vested interests.
You sound like a member of the Bush administration, cuchulainn
The cooling of the sea caused by melting icecaps is, as far as I know, not significant. Far more significant is, for instance, the fact that smaller icecaps mean less sunlight reflected back into space, causing further warming, causing further melting. It's a vicious circle.
Yes, there are natural variations in climate over time. The difference is that the current warming phase is the first climate change to be caused by human activity. I think our best hope is that technology will change to offset the problem. One example of this is the artificial creation of additional cloud cover by using unmanned ships to spray water into the upper atmosphere. Hopefully there will be more innovations like this, as it seems unlikely that humanity will redress climate change by putting the collective good before local or vested interests.
Z
z102
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
About the rising of the sea level: Predictions are -for the year 2100- that the extension of the seawater due to higher temperature will make it rise by 0.7 meters. On top of that would go 6.3 meters from molten ice. So 7 meters are to be expected with a predicted temperature rise of 5 degrees celsius.
This calculation does not say when it will happen , only that it will happen until 2100.The climate is like a loaded gun , the trigger is pulled already and we don't know when the bang comes. But we know where the bullet goes.
The economy? Forget it. We will have a voucher system, I suppose, similar to Northern Korea. Inflation will eat away any value of money.
Bush's string puller is Scientology, Amageddon provokers. A modern 4th Reich in mind. The ariens (the choosen ones) will have a better live than the rest, at least it says so in the catalogue.
About the rising of the sea level: Predictions are -for the year 2100- that the extension of the seawater due to higher temperature will make it rise by 0.7 meters. On top of that would go 6.3 meters from molten ice. So 7 meters are to be expected with a predicted temperature rise of 5 degrees celsius.
This calculation does not say when it will happen , only that it will happen until 2100.The climate is like a loaded gun , the trigger is pulled already and we don't know when the bang comes. But we know where the bullet goes.
The economy? Forget it. We will have a voucher system, I suppose, similar to Northern Korea. Inflation will eat away any value of money.
Bush's string puller is Scientology, Amageddon provokers. A modern 4th Reich in mind. The ariens (the choosen ones) will have a better live than the rest, at least it says so in the catalogue.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
I wrote a post last year about the gulf stream drifting west into the Atlantic and the cooling effect that it would have on us as the resulting melt water from the north sea became out primary weather influence...and no one believed me!
Can Ireland survive climate change? It depends how bad it is and what you regard as survival. If things go as badly as many suggest then I can't see how our society and economy will not be damaged.
Where did that come from and what has it got to do with the height of Seawater?heinbloed said:
I wrote a post last year about the gulf stream drifting west into the Atlantic and the cooling effect that it would have on us as the resulting melt water from the north sea became out primary weather influence...and no one believed me!
Can Ireland survive climate change? It depends how bad it is and what you regard as survival. If things go as badly as many suggest then I can't see how our society and economy will not be damaged.
G
Guest127
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
extopia. black bush is nice. ( I am refering to the drink) dirty minds
extopia. black bush is nice. ( I am refering to the drink) dirty minds
Z
z102
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
Sorry Purple, your knowledge is not up to date, neither last year nor now. The poles ARE melting and the gulfstream is not cooling down. The Atlantic is actually getting warmer. Maybe you mixed something up?
About the future level of the seawater:get some info from the web, or, as Columbus would have, said : try it yourself. Or ask the Dutch.
The Netherlands have accepted that they have to pay for defence, robbing oil won't make the homeland a better place. They are building dykes for the last thousand years. And about ten years ago they set up a panel to look at ( I hate that Irish idiom due to it's inclination to do nothing) the matter. In fact they are rising the dykes, spending billions on it every year.And they allowe for condensing boilers only. And they put billions into upgrading the electric grid to cater for wind generators. And to get away from the destructive use of carbon.
Two decades ago the EU paid for swimming courses for Irish fishermen,propably still doing so, the joke of other EU fishing states that was. (Sorry for those who recently drowned). Some nations have a foresight for the common values and others don't. See our climate damage.
Forget Dublin, when they start to look at the matter the horizon for them will be as blue as the sea from underneath.To put it the sarcastic way as the Major of New Orleans does: Pay them grants and they might return -after the first flooding.
Sorry Purple, your knowledge is not up to date, neither last year nor now. The poles ARE melting and the gulfstream is not cooling down. The Atlantic is actually getting warmer. Maybe you mixed something up?
About the future level of the seawater:get some info from the web, or, as Columbus would have, said : try it yourself. Or ask the Dutch.
The Netherlands have accepted that they have to pay for defence, robbing oil won't make the homeland a better place. They are building dykes for the last thousand years. And about ten years ago they set up a panel to look at ( I hate that Irish idiom due to it's inclination to do nothing) the matter. In fact they are rising the dykes, spending billions on it every year.And they allowe for condensing boilers only. And they put billions into upgrading the electric grid to cater for wind generators. And to get away from the destructive use of carbon.
Two decades ago the EU paid for swimming courses for Irish fishermen,propably still doing so, the joke of other EU fishing states that was. (Sorry for those who recently drowned). Some nations have a foresight for the common values and others don't. See our climate damage.
Forget Dublin, when they start to look at the matter the horizon for them will be as blue as the sea from underneath.To put it the sarcastic way as the Major of New Orleans does: Pay them grants and they might return -after the first flooding.
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
I think that the man-made aspect of climate change is vastly over-rated. Climate change is an established part of our history and the last millenium has seen the extremes of the 17th century "mini ice age" and the south east of England being warm enough to be regarded as a leading wine producing region (c 1100AD) Further back in history, during the real ice age, the sea level dropped enough to create landbridges between Ireland and Britain, Britain and mainland Europe, Alaska and Asia etc. All this happened without human intervention and shows that nature itself is more than capable of producing massive climate change. What is less sure is that the actions of man are capable of producing climate change. While the earth is undoubtedly getting warmer, should we be quicker to attribute this to the proven ability of nature to vary our climate or the unproven theory that an increase in so-called "greenhouse gases" is doing the business? Lets face it, relatively little is understood of the theory of climate to the extent that no universally agreed model has been produced that can produce reliable, testable predictions of future climate. So we are left with opinions. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has risen steadily over tha last 150 years. Simultaneously, the Earth's climate has got a degree or so warmer. Put two and two together and you can get, well, anything you like, really. How do you extrapolate the relationship? Is there, in fact, any causal relationship? We don't know. Nobody knows. It's all guesswork. In fact, I remember in the 1970's, some scientists were warning of an imminent ice age due to "global dimming" -clouds of industrial pollutants reducing the energy arriving from the sun - this reduction had actually been measured. Now we are being warned of global warming - perhaps by the same scientists.
Any theory of climate must start with the fact that the main engine of weather activity on the Earth is the energy arriving from the sun. And we know that solar activity and hence thermal output is not a constant. And, in fact, other observed stars show even greater variation in luminosity and thermal output. It seems reasonable to me to conclude that solar variation is a far more determinative source of climate change than anything our relatively puny efforts can accomplish.
I think that the man-made aspect of climate change is vastly over-rated. Climate change is an established part of our history and the last millenium has seen the extremes of the 17th century "mini ice age" and the south east of England being warm enough to be regarded as a leading wine producing region (c 1100AD) Further back in history, during the real ice age, the sea level dropped enough to create landbridges between Ireland and Britain, Britain and mainland Europe, Alaska and Asia etc. All this happened without human intervention and shows that nature itself is more than capable of producing massive climate change. What is less sure is that the actions of man are capable of producing climate change. While the earth is undoubtedly getting warmer, should we be quicker to attribute this to the proven ability of nature to vary our climate or the unproven theory that an increase in so-called "greenhouse gases" is doing the business? Lets face it, relatively little is understood of the theory of climate to the extent that no universally agreed model has been produced that can produce reliable, testable predictions of future climate. So we are left with opinions. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has risen steadily over tha last 150 years. Simultaneously, the Earth's climate has got a degree or so warmer. Put two and two together and you can get, well, anything you like, really. How do you extrapolate the relationship? Is there, in fact, any causal relationship? We don't know. Nobody knows. It's all guesswork. In fact, I remember in the 1970's, some scientists were warning of an imminent ice age due to "global dimming" -clouds of industrial pollutants reducing the energy arriving from the sun - this reduction had actually been measured. Now we are being warned of global warming - perhaps by the same scientists.
Any theory of climate must start with the fact that the main engine of weather activity on the Earth is the energy arriving from the sun. And we know that solar activity and hence thermal output is not a constant. And, in fact, other observed stars show even greater variation in luminosity and thermal output. It seems reasonable to me to conclude that solar variation is a far more determinative source of climate change than anything our relatively puny efforts can accomplish.
Z
z102
Guest
Re: Can Ireland survive climate change?
As far as I understood the recent news we are living in the hottest phase since a few hundred thousand years. So no "ups and downs", not for mankind.
That the last miniature ice age was not created by men is a sugesstion, not a proofen fact. With fire man has destroyed more than cities and nations. Burning down (logging) an area of the size of Europe can easyly create a climate change.We have seen it in Indonesia recently and on a smaller scale.
As far as I understood the recent news we are living in the hottest phase since a few hundred thousand years. So no "ups and downs", not for mankind.
That the last miniature ice age was not created by men is a sugesstion, not a proofen fact. With fire man has destroyed more than cities and nations. Burning down (logging) an area of the size of Europe can easyly create a climate change.We have seen it in Indonesia recently and on a smaller scale.