Some interesting perspectives here.
In 1913 if you bought an ounce of gold you still had that ounce of gold in 1923,
This is obviously true, for any dates.
I'm also pretty confident that the deepest, most liquid market in the world will do a better job than me of assessing future inflation expectations.
This is clearly sensible advice. However the probability of significant inflation in the medium term cannot be described as nil. It is not unreasonable to allocate a portion of your assets to protecting yourself against it. It is also not unreasonable to think that precious metals will hold or even increase their value in real terms, if inflation rises. Even if you think blobs of yellow metal are preposterously overvalued, there is no reason to think they will not continue to be. In fact if inflation takes off they are very likely to hold value.
but what about the "investors" buying german long dated bonds at negative interest rates now, surely that deserves a bigger laugh,
No doubt they have their reasons, I suspect that the buyers of these bonds are not actually investing as such. They may have future obligations to meet and wish to know that the funds are in place, without any view to a return.
But I agree that it makes no sense for the average investor. Bits of paper with no yield are like blobs of yellow metal, you hope they will be worth something in the future. A €1,000 bond will be worth €1,000 in 10 years time I have no doubt, but there is a small possibility that a loaf of bread will cost €1,000 by then. An ounce of gold will still be the same ounce of gold, whether it will represent a weeks wages or the price of a loaf in 10 years time, who knows. Though if inflation takes off that in my opinion will increase the chance of gold holding its value. people would lose faith in currency and turn to gold.
If only someone could identify an asset that would have an intrinsic value which would remain the same irrespective of inflation, and if it could pay a dividend along the way that would be great. Now what could that be.