buying property in poland

response

I agree wholeheartedly with you mollser and your comments.

The fact is it will be around 2009 before it starts to make a little headway. Funnily enough

warsaw's GDP growth over last year is estimated at 10%-15% with the whole of poland at

5%-6%. These numbers are very attractive to anyone. Myself i am solely based on long term

opinion and would not like to sell anything ever. Comparing poland to ireland is like apples

and oranges.On another note polish mortgages total around 5% of the population.
I can only see this figure increasing in the medium term. Interestingly enough is that a

very low figure of the population have bank accounts one sees banks signing people up for

current accounts in supermarkets on saturdays and sundays. Of the 40 million people in

poland there are 2.6million in warsaw i believe this number will rise in the future. To me

this figure is way too small and should be more in the 7-10% mark of the population. As the

city prospers in 2009-2011 more and more people shall converge on the city. The thing is

shifting 40 million peoples economy is a lot tougher than moving 4 million thats one of the

main reasons ireland has experienced rampant growth in that its economics are smaller so it

takes a shorter time for it to grow. Yes there population is falling alongside a lot of

other economies. Thing is Poland is outputting a serious amount of graduates and people are

relativly young in age. These graduates will swarm abroad or to the city. People hate living

in the communist blocks over there and the old communist buildings it is there wish to move

into new apartments. Its a snob thing but its a social atitude that is embedded in polish

persons.

Myself i am in for the long haul and to me i only care about how much rent v's cost of the

building / apartment. To me the same sort of rent was not attainable in other accession

countries on a rent v's apt cost factor. Im only looking for solid value that produces a

high return. Look at budapest house for 100k rent 350-400 euros a month in my book i only

care about the rent the appreciation looks after itself naturally. Okay its not going to be

the eire of the east {Smaller economies might be }. But it will be slow boring with cash

coming in. With 20% unemployment if that comes down to 10% in ten years then look at what

happens to GDP figures.
 
huh?

Im in for the long haul as im under 25 years of age and can afford to wait.

As a matter of interest 'ecstatic' are you Irish, and have you bought a house in Ireland yet?

Its just that I don't know many under 25's around these parts who've bought here and are looking to places like Eastern Europe to invest their 'spare cash'!

When I was under 25 I had no spare cash and Poland was a Communist state!

How times change...
 
yes

yes to your questions...

imagine when u were 25 if you had spread east?

I'd say u may have done alright...
 
Poland

Have you any professional interests in property dealing ecstatic?
 
clubman response

hi chapman,

to be honest i wish i had. no me i am in the IT sector but have a keen interest in economics (like most other people on this site) generally.. :)

I'd consider my style to be contrarian in nature solely based on value.

If i had professional interests in property i wouldnt state that one would be mad to rent to polish people would i ?
 
Polish investment

Two recent issues raised in recent posts are:

- should one avoid renting to Poles themselves?
- will Poland be another Ireland?

As regards renting to Poles be aware of the following:

- Polish salaries are low. Don't expect to buy attractive flats and then to find it easy to find Polish tenants. They won't be able to afford the rents as a rule. And yes, the process for removing tenants is a slow one.

- Will Poland be another Ireland? Poland is a very large country. My guess is that most of it will take a very long time to benefit from EU membership. Investors shouldn't, however, look at Poland as a whole. Look instead at particular segments. Warsaw is one. Krakow another. They both have separate sets of dynamics. I am investing heavily in Krakow where, from October, there have been cheap direct flights from the UK. In my view Krakow will outperform Budapest and Prague, and possibly Warsaw.

Anyone interested in Krakow is welcome to share their thoughts with me. My e-mail is info@cracow.co.uk

Stephen Barnes
 
Re: Polish investment

I am investing heavily in Krakow where, from October, there have been cheap direct flights from the UK.
Of course, there is no guarantee that these flights will continue indefinitely. Remember the whinging of the UK-gentry who invested in the south of France when Ryanair cut their direct service from Standsted?
 
Poland

In fact there are now four low cost carriers flying to Krakow or nearby. Air Polonia and Wizz fly to Katowice, and Sky Europe and EasyJet into Krakow itself. I think you are right, and that one or two will disappear. Probably Air Polonia in my view. However, I would be amazed if all four disappeared. But who knows!
 
Re: Poland

In fact there are now four low cost carriers flying to Krakow or nearby.
I presume you mean flights to/from the UK - right? Not a lot of use to Irish-based investors.
 
krakow

krakow reminds me of Dingle beautiful but not the vibrant economic heart of a country. Warsaw is dull and bland in comparison but is the capital and where people shall migrate to.

To me i believed the risk of restititution outweighed the benefits of krakow for my first buy in Poland.

Comparing ireland and poland is like comparing apples and spuds. Poland economically is 10 times larger which means it needs a lot longer to get on its feet.
 
krakow

depending on my outcome in warsaw i may go to krakow when i have put everything to bed with this deal {still been built}.
 
Krakow

Rainyday - yes, I was rather thinking from a UK perspective. But if there are flights from the UK it will be good for the Krakow tourist economy, albeit not much help to Irish investors, as you say.

Ecstatic. Yes, I agree with you too. Poland is too big to replicate what happened to the Republic of Ireland. But I think bits of Poland may do very well. Those bits probably include both Warsaw and Krakow, for different reasons. Warsaw will do well as a fast growing economic centre and capital. Krakow because of tourism. As such, different investment strategies are indicated for the two cities.

PS - I have been amazed how many Irish there are already investing in Krakow. Perhaps they aren't visiting this forum or they prefer to keep the place secret. But my guess is that they outnumber the British investors there. So, per head of population, you guys (and girls) are well ahead of the game....

Reading this forum you would think the only place in former Eastern Europe the Irish ever invest in is Budapest, but it ain't so! (... which for we Brits is possibly a pity...!)

Stephen
 
poland

thats very true UKLawyer me i see budapest and i see it way ahead of its true actual valuation in terms of current property costs there.

I do believe there are an awful lot of english people active in the Warsaw property market alongside the irish.

I dont think much is been said however take a look at www.oanda.com when i purchased 6 months ago zloty traded against the euro at 1euro = 4.7zlotys. Now the zloty has dramatically appreciated to 1euro = 4.25 zlotys.
That appreciation on a house price is quite handsome.

This is all virtual at present to me however watch the zlotys versus the other accession countries.
 
Re: poland

The exchange rate issue complicates things I agree. Like you I've done well out of the movement so far, but am less clear where the Zloty is now heading. My view is that the Zloty was undervalued before and that 4.25 is about right. But it's so difficult to be certain. Also I think the Euro is over-valued and yet it seems to have held its ground a long time.

I find the following web site incredibly useful for plotting currency movements:

fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html

The following specific plot gives a useful long term view

fx.sauder.ubc.ca/cgi/fxpl...lin&m=0&x=

I also find it useful to plot the Zloty against Special Drawing Rights. This is a way of plotting against a basket of currencies. One can see that the Zloty is appreciating quite rapidly.

The Florint, of course, is pegged making life somewhat easier.
 
Investing in property in Warsaw

The best is to buy a one bedroom new apartment in the city center. The most expensive small apartments in Warsaw are about 100 000 euro and then the rent is about 900 euro/month.
Most of the new apartments in Poland are being sold unfinished so you should add 300 euro/sq m to the price.
 
Warsaw Properties

€900 per month rent.

Hmm, given that is what 1beds are in Dublin (even slightly cheaper), and salaries are approx 3-4 times more than warsaw, I find it hard to believe you'd get that.

Esp given a mate of mine is now 5 months trying to rent a 2 bed for €1,200 pm, again, dublin rental prices.

Keeping talking it up mate, a big swindle me thinks
 
Re: Warsaw Properties

No talking it up and no "mate"! It depends on where you have your apartment, how well you finished it and with whom you are trying to rent it. For a small 1 bedroom apt - 44sq. m. - 800 euro is no problem in the right area. Please tell me where your friends apt. is in warsaw and what development company built it? Is it fully furnished? What type of equipment did he put in it? Believe me, I know the market, city and story in Warsaw as I have been living and operating here for over 4 years. Any other questions just ask!
 
Re: Warsaw Properties

You say that rents in Dublin are the same and the cost of living is higher - true! You can pay 50% less for an apt. in Warsaw and get the same rent as an apt. in Dublin ( if you know what you are doing ) Thats why so many Irish want to invest over here - it's worth it - but not all know how! I see them making many mistakes.
 
Response

WarsawProperties i concur 2 bed Mokotow new in exclusive part of mokotow 900 i am been quoted by my agent as the price he wants to start renting it at.

I tell myself would be more than happy at having it rent at realistic 700 euro. But he wants to start at 900 so why not let them bargain up or down. His job is to get it rented so ill leave him at it.

On another point i purchased in and around 7 months ago. Total cost 80k apt now selling at 125 plus.
Thats good business period.

To me id rather the less people that go there as prices are only going one way in the long term for this i wont be posting any of the daft.ie's of Poland however anyone on the ground knows these sites and what the rental figures are.

They are quite enticing but then profit generally equals risk factor. I dont think i have much risk now based on the initial re-valuation of the apartment.

I know people who made mistakes when i chatted with the bank they said to me irish people come in and they value there property at less than the price they are paying. This happens frequently as they dont scout out the ground and figure the good and bad places out.

IMHO i can only see the likes of Mokotow the old town and Wilanow going up in price. Me id rather be closer to city than wilanow so Mokotow was the selection. Other good places i believed was certain parts of SrodMeisce and as per the norm beside the embassies and near Belwederaska.

Out of interest what do you think the best places are warsaw properties and why?
 
investing in poland

I am thinking of buying an aprtmnet in Poznan Poland. Its about 150km from Berlin and its a great city. Seems a great apportunity as the appartments are apprx 50k and its a university city with a lot of new industries investing here. Wondering what folks might think if its a good idea or is it worth the risk?

Doulx
 
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