Holiday home ownership in Spain is split around 50/50 between foreigners and Spaniards. What makes you think that it's all foreign owned?
In fact, the split is currently well more than half in favour of Spanish buyers. In some parts of the Costa Calida for instance, Spaniards make up the vast majority of buyers. Even on the Costa del Sol, where many Irish bought cheaply in the late 1990s, some areas like San Pedro had developments that were almost entirely bought by Spaniards. In western Marbella at the moment most resales in the nicer apartment developments are to Spaniards from the big cities or to local professionals.
Equity release, the engine driving the Irish move to foreign property, is having a huge impact in Spain. Property in Madrid and other major cities has shot up in value in the last three or four years on the back of a booming economy, and these house owners are able to easily afford second homes on the south coast. I spoke to a developer in Aguilas a few months ago who is working on a development that will have its very own "fly-in" facility -- owners will be able to land on the private airstrip and taxi up to the door of their villas; this project is a very high-end one and they expect to sell most of it to Spaniards. We are not the only ones making a bit of money at the moment!
Comparisons between Spain and Bulgaria are simply not valid. Bulgaria has a ten week summer with a two week peak; Spain has more than 300 days of sunshine and a genuine year-round business with a good three months of peak season. More importantly though is the fact that Irish and English buyers are paying up to 300 and 400% of market value in Bulgaria for properties with effectively
no resale value in the local market, unless they can offload them on other foreigners. The local market for this stuff at this price is ZERO!
This is a very risky place to be for investors. Having paid maybe four times the market value, with no possibility that the local population will ever buy these properties, and with no rental market, they are waiting for some as yet unheralded event to make it all better -- the proverbial miracle! To make it worse, those who have been caught are nearly all in complete denial, and many of them even encourage others to get involved.