Brexit and the Border

This doesn't make sense. The issue is how frictionless will the EU/UK trade relationship be. Brexiteers use the Mercs/BMW argument to claim that the EU are just as keen as the UK for it to be as frictionless as possible, which suits Ireland just fine. The fear is that the EU will want to punish the UK and then indeed Ireland may find itself stabbed in the back(stop).
 

I dont buy into that. My own view is that there wont be a Brexit, or at least what Farage & co thought Brexit to be.
We have already seen the deadline extended to facilitate the 'transition period'.
I expect the UK simply to transpose all existing EU legislation and ECJ judgements into UK law and carry on from there.
That is more or less what we did when we left the UK. I reckon the UK will simply continue to engage with the EU as it already does with regard to trade and immigration, but without a say on how the rules are determined.
If UK politicians try to ban Polish or Romanian, or whoever, from entering UK then the EU will reciprocate in kind with UK citizens entering EU. Its no benefit to anybody.

The Y2K bug comes to mind. In the end, come Brexit day, nothing will happen. The changes will occur in the years ahead.
 
TheBigShort said:
I dont buy into that. My own view is that there wont be a Brexit, or at least what Farage & co thought Brexit to be.
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I agree I think it will all be diluted to be meaningless, the brexiteers dont have the whiphand like they did after the referendum. However I also think that Brussels also is not in a strong position as shown by the election results and the rise of euro skepticism throughout europe. There will also have to be big changes in Brussels and the thorny issue of migration will also have to be properly addressed. There are simply too many countries in eastern europe and even italy and greece not prepared to be dictated to by Brussels. If Brussels had of given Cameron the concessions on migration that he was looking for, Brexit would not have happened. Brussels is as much to blame for this mess as the brexiteers
 
The bit that is going to be hard to gloss over is Britain’s contribution to EU budget. I don’t think UK will get a no change situation except they are spared the contribution.
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Duke of Marmalade said:
The bit that is going to be hard to gloss over is Britain’s contribution to EU budget. I don’t think UK will get a no change situation except they are spared the contribution.
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Thats a good point. But I would imagine the cost of that from the UK side is no seat at the decision making table. The cost of that becoming more apparent as time moves on. Although if the UK transposes ECJ judgements onto its statute books, as I suspect will happen, then the ECJ may remain the de facto final arbitrator in many UK constitutional issues.

However, as you have pointed out, a no-change in the status of UK/EU relations will hardly be facilitated without cost.
 
Once again Boris blowing off as if it has absolutely nothing to do with him, he's some spoofer!
 
Purple said:
It looks like Borris has thrown the whole border question into chaos again.
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A few obs on that article;


  1. Johnson considers a Trump like approach to be more effective in getting deals done quick and fast. He is probably correct in that. What he is not correct in, or what he does not observe of Trumps tactics is, the unknown consequences or unknown impacts of the Trump approach – or effectively, the unwinding of international diplomacy.

    International diplomacy in which protocols and procedures have built up over the centuries between countries around the world to try eliminate the unknown effects causing conflict at later dates which would, could, otherwise be avoidable.


  2. Johnson is acknowledging that there is a chance Brexit could fall short of the type of Brexit he, and his like-minded supporters want. This presumably is a clean break, with or without a deal. A no-deal Brexit he acknowledges could lead to a meltdown, initially – but that it’ll be alright on the night!


  3. Johnson highlights the British Treasury as the ‘heart of Remain’. Whether accurate or not, it is evidence that powerful interests in the British establishment are at work at thwarting Brexit. Probably goes someway to explaining why his private comments are being leaked like a sieve every week.


  4. He may have been reading my comments from April last?
TheBigShort said:
The Y2K bug comes to mind. In the end, come Brexit day, nothing will happen. The changes will occur in the years ahead.
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Although my reference of 'Y2K' was in the context that Brexit will, if not overturned, be nothing like what Johnson & farage pine for.
 
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He is of course right that the border thing is being completely over-egged but this is terrible diplomacy. Even less likely now that Simon Varadkar will make the pragmatic compromise on this. Even Boris knows the leak is damaging.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
He is of course right that the border thing is being completely over-egged but this is terrible diplomacy.
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For right or wrong it looks likely that the 'head the ball' element will wreck 'frictionless' infrastructure - cameras and the like. Anyway, they are not going to put cameras on every back road. Do we close border roads - IMHO we don't, why should border communities suffer. Attempts to close would again become a dissidents disneyland.

The obvious solution has always been an Irish Sea border, DUP are the only ones pushing the point with their narrow agenda (NI can't be different from the rest of the UK....except where it suits us). So Irish Govt should continue to hammer in the wedge of the border, it may eventually cause the DUP to split off, an election and maybe a Brexit call off. I'm loving the current impasse, bring it on, the DUP and Tories are looking worse by the day, its gone so bad the folk in the North are considering voting for a United Ireland, Scotland is pretty much on the road for Indy2. End of days for the UK, and they know who to blame. NI (or rather the DUP) are turning their back on a nice opportunity, the only part of the UK with full access to the EU - there's surely jobs in that - if they weren't so blinded by yesteryear's issues they could see that.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
He is of course right that the border thing is being completely over-egged but this is terrible diplomacy. Even less likely now that Simon Varadkar will make the pragmatic compromise on this. Even Boris knows the leak is damaging.
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I’m not so sure.

In terms of it being a source of a return to violence by republicans then I agree. Whilst apart from the stupidity of offering dissidents a target, a return to hostilities is very remote. However, an economic recession, jobs losses, etc and automatically the Brexit border will be to the fore for taking the blame.

Johnsons dismissiveness of extent of trade across the border is another factor. It may be chicken feed in grand scheme of British trade, but any disruption to that trade is a disruption and a disadvantage to the business people operating in the region.

Or to put it another way, Johnson and his grand scheme of international free trade deals means sod all to the farmers and towns people of Strabane, Enniskillen, Bundoran, Cavan, Monaghan, Newry, Dundalk etc. If ever there was evidence that Johnsons vision of Brexit means zip-all for Ireland, north & south, then his leaked comments are evidence of that.

The lunacy of Brexit is the mantra of it opening Britain to international free trade deals while simultaneously jeopardising the biggest free trade that it already has with the EU. The mantra of taking back control of its borders while its only land border will still remain open for any EU citizen to waltz their way across in or out of the UK.

Brexit, as visioned by Johnsons and Farage is a sorry joke.
 
This certainly is great entertainment. The EU are bouncing the Brits for fun. They are using Ireland as their patsy and Leo Coveney is playing right along as of course is Mary Lou and practically the whole political/commentariat class.

This is going to go pear shaped. Nominally Ireland will be the biggest loser in a Brexit meltdown. I say nominally because in reality we need a dose of economic cooling down. House prices and rental levels are going bananas again. A Brexit correction might set us back on a sustainable track.
 
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In terms of political theatre, Brexit is a blockbuster no doubt.
As for the EU using Ireland as its patsy, there is an element of truth in that. But I think the stakes are high, Ireland has rolled over often enough - Nice, Lisbon, private bank debt. We like Europe, and want to be European, but I think we will cash in our chips on this. Either Brussels backs us to the hilt on an open border or its another nail in the EU coffin, which, let alone Brexit, is also facing political pressures in Greece, Hungary, Poland and now Italy.
Domestically, FG are in the ascendancy. For the first time since partition (or their foundation) they have a real window of opportunity to eclipse FF and for the foreseeable future.
Leo has already trotted the "you will never again be left behind by an Irish government" to Nationalists.
Today he is the OOrder top guest while simultaneously promoting West Belfast culture in Féile na bPobail.
The Shinners are also in the ascendancy and MLou has seamlessly taken the reigns from a giant of Irish political leadership.
Add to that, same sex marriage, repeal of the 8th, where does FF find itself today?
I have great respect for MMartin as a person and a political leader, but his days are numbered I think. He is of an older generation, it is he that now carries the baggage. If not a resignation soon, I would expect a heave in the autumn.
 
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Not sure re a FF heave, the one enduring characteristic of FF is populism, and they have a few chameleon tricks in their bag. I suggest they would not wish for the electoral wilderness of turning themselves into a craw thumping ROI version of the DUP, there isn't the tribalism to support it. I think they'll row in with 'winner' Micheal Martin and sure before you know it they're all about liberation of women and progressive social policy. Agree though that good times at the moment for FG but it'll soon be back down the pit to homelessness and health so wouldn't be getting carried away either.
 
TheBigShort said:
Although if the UK transposes ECJ judgements onto its statute books, as I suspect will happen, then the ECJ may remain the de facto final arbitrator in many UK constitutional issues.
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While I agree with much of your analysis in relation to brexit not really happening, I do not agree with the above. The brexiteers and many more than that have a pathological hatred of the ECJ and that is one area they wont compromise on , they may decide to adopt ECJ rulings but only in relation to trade. The brexiteers will have to get something in order to claim that they have achieved brexit. However there are also big changes and reforms happening in the EU now, other countries in the bloc are also strenuously voicing the same concerns and demanding changes to how things are done. These changes in relation to immigration and the reach of Brussels in relation to social issues are the same issues that resulted in brexit. Therefore in a few years time the EU may not be the same organization the brits voted to leave . Therefore there may not be the same urgency in pulling the plug completely
 
Betsy Og said:
Agree though that good times at the moment for FG but it'll soon be back down the pit to homelessness and health so wouldn't be getting carried away either.
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Fair point, but its the confidence and supply agreement that is effectively rendering FF rudderless. How much longer can FF support the government while purporting to be in opposition?
As such, I make an amendment to my call above - an Autumn election, if not, a heave against Martin.
 
Looking increasingly likely a leadership contest / snap election in UK.
A de facto Brexit II referendum perhaps?
 
TheBigShort said:
Looking increasingly likely a leadership contest / snap election in UK.
A de facto Brexit II referendum perhaps?
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I'd love to think so but it seems that the (probably >50%) remainer vote has no-one to vote for, except the Lib Dems. Labour are, as far as I can tell, still more or less pro-Brexit - whether you're a Corbyn fan or not I think its fair to say he didn't but his heart into a Remain vote, and seemed happy enough with the Leave outcome.

It would be fantastic to get the DUP dislodged, we could then move towards an Irish sea border (if a border is needed at all). So while there may well be a leadership push against May ..... the longest flagged knifing since...I dunno.... but she's been Dead Woman Walking ever since the last election - I think it would be suicidal (even by Tory standards) to have an election at this juncture. So unless some Tory souls are willing to sacrifice themselves/the party by voting the government down I don't see an election coming.
 
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