Brexit and the Border

Stephen Collins in The Irish Times sums up quite well for me the dangerous game the Irish government have been playing:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/irish-government-is-partly-to-blame-for-brexit-shambles-1.3317855

The fact that the DUP didn’t get the message may partly have been a failure by the British to keep the party in the loop, but it also reflects the way hardline sectarian politics in Northern Ireland works. If one side is happy the other assumes they have lost and tries to scupper whatever deal is on offer... The way Tánaiste Simon Coveney jumped the gun with a premature radio interview on Monday morning and the subsequent mood music suggesting that the Irish side had got what it wanted, even before Theresa May met Jean Claude Juncker, was tempting fate. It didn’t take a genius to know that the one sure way to frighten the already nervous horses in the DUP and the loony Tory right was to put on a display of Green triumphalism.

Ireland more than any other country needs Britain to exit the EU on the best possible terms, but the approach adopted in Dublin has the potential to push our neighbours in the other direction.
 
It seems its fixed - and this is from DUP sources ....not that I have any, but RTE News quoting them. Guaranteed access to Britain for Nordy goods is confirmed (not that I would have thought there was ever a doubt about that). So with an invisible border I'm presuming, de facto, the 'keep em out' policy will be left to the ports and airports of NI to implement. Can we expect "the jungle" from Calais to re-locate to the Titanic Quarter ?! (I jest).

So all's well that ends well it looks like - a feather in the collective cap of Leo & Simon....
 
Hmmm, dunno. Seems we're very much where we were, bar a guarantee...

So it's to be a magical border after all, "technological solution", or it'll be alright on the night. If there's hard Brexit how does this work...

Maybe it'll put another incentive on TM to soften the whole leaving single mkt & customs union - what, pray, is the prize in such an exit...
 
odyssey06 said:
Good summary here on what was actually agreed...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/08/main-points-of-agreement-uk-eu-brexit-deal
Click to expand...

From your article:

It leaves unclear how an open border will be achieved but says in the absence of a later agreement, the UK will ensure “full alignment” with the rules of the customs union and single market that uphold the Good Friday agreement.

Does this mean that NI will remain within the customs union? If so, does this not represent a potentially massive opportunity for companies based in NI? They may now trade fully and freely with both the UK and EU and will be the only jurisdiction to do so???
 

I think more likely it means that the UK as a whole will undertake to align with those specific rules of the customs union and single market that are part of the Good Friday agreement? Whatever they are!

I would not interpret it to mean that NI, or the UK as a whole, will be in full compliance with the customs union and single market.
 
It mean Soft Brexit; you still have to obey the rules but now you don't get a say in making them.
 
Continuing the Eagles analogy - I guess the UK wants to use the amenities and eat the food, without actually staying there.

Poor Theresa has hit a parlimentary setback, dear oh dear for her. For everyone else it seems the Brexit deal will have more scrutiny in each sub-aspect, which cannot be bad, since it give Labour and others a chance to put pressure on.
 
Davis describes the deal as aspirational. Well the EU will make sure that is not the case so far as the hard border is concerned. But if I were the DUP I would regard any assurances they have as not worth the paper it is written on. The EU won’t give a damn about any backtracking on internal UK commitments.
 

WOW. Bang on the money. Can I borrow your crystal ball.
 
I am concerned that the Irish border is taking too much prominence at this stage of the Brexit negotiations.

There is nothing special about the Irish border except to those of us on this Island. The economic issues apply equally in the Channel.

It would be better if our border had a lower profile. We don't want to be blamed for the mess.

After all its all just talk.

The City is a truly remarkable industry, worth billions to the UK, it employed over 3% of all British workers and pays about 12% of all UK tax. The Brexiteers think that EU businesses wont want to be cut off from access to the services of this wonderful business. The French Government thinks that they can help reproduce the business in France and collect all that tax, and have all that employment.

When the City realises that Financial Services are not going to be included in any deal, Brexit will be called off.
 
cremeegg said:
I am concerned that the Irish border is taking too much prominence at this stage of the Brexit negotiations.
There is nothing special about the Irish border except to those of us on this Island. The economic issues apply equally in the Channel.
Click to expand...

It's not even that special to us, the vast majority of our UK trade is with Great Britain not Northern Ireland.
Obviously, we would to avoid it, but I don't think a hard border would be disastrous, either economically or in terms of political situation in NI.
What would be disastrous if loss of free trade with our major trading partner.
We seem to be risking that with our focus on a soft border.
 
Couldn’t agree more. Excellent article in yesterday’s IT making this very point. It argued that Leo and Simon have boxed themselves in. It doesn’t help that Leo’s popularity is soaring on the back of him flying the green flag. Very hard to make the necessary compromises on a soft border from where he is now.

Hard not to suspect that the EU are playing the Irish border thing somewhat cynically. Then we have the May-DUP deal. This will all end very badly unless - there is a sea change in UK political situation, possibly with JC in charge.
 
I agree. I think the border issue is over-played. Signage will be very important. Rather than having "Ireland" / "UK" at the checkpoints it could just as easily be "EU" / "Northern Ireland". Instead of armoured cars & soldiers they could build playgrounds. etc etc

I would be very concerned if NI stayed within the customs union though - they would be the only jurisdiction with free trade with both the EU and the UK. Their wages are lower so it would be very tempting for a lot of companies based here to move up the road.
 
Of course the EU is playing hardball, why wouldn't it. It's only slowly dawning on the UK that they dont have much ammo, and there's hardly any upside in this impending Brexit and plenty of downside. If they could get over their pride they'd do the sensible thing and re-run the referendum, at which point I dont think there's any doubt but that the result would be reversed.

So the incompetence/hoped-for-fudge on the border is coming home to roost, let the Tories stew, they made the mess I'm in no rush to fix it for them. Irish sea border always seemed the easiest solution and I think we'll end up there in the end. As regards US investment, the one thing they value is certainty. NI and the chaotic 'UK' are anything but certain, so I wouldn't have any great fears there.

I do think the border is slightly over-egged in terms of return to the troubles, but I dont see them putting magic cameras on all 300ish crossings, and I dont think closing roads is on the cards at all. So to the sea we go !! It'll make United Ireland more seamless in the long run too - not that I'm in any rush there but I do think it is a creeping inevitability as the UK disintegrates.
 
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I think the EU and certainly Ireland are still hoping that with the fluidity of UK politics Brexit may still not happen. This explains the EU hardball attitude. We seem to be a pawn in this and we are playing along with the strategy. If it works that's fine but the stakes are being pushed very high. Unless the UK political scene dramatically changes this hardball attitude will backfire and we will have no deal. RoI will be by far the biggest losers. Not only do we trade much more with GB than with NI but also GB is a vital landbridge in our trade with the continent.

There are not going to be customs checks on the M1 but a modest extension to existing arrangements around our different VAT would be a small price to pay to avoid no deal. We are talking ourselves into believing that any increased complication at all in RoI/NI trade would cause Patrick Pearse to spin his grave. Ironic since whenever we did have a very hard customs border this was almost entirely to protect the newly independent state.
 
I dont really see a no-deal Brexit happening. However bad it would be for us it would surely be so strikingly bad for the UK that they would see sense. Would the Commons vote for a no-deal Brexit? - they have been given a vote after all. In such a scenario I think we should be pressuring SF to turn up and vote, in the interest of their voters who voted remain. Sure twould be great craic if nothing else.....
 
While I respect the right of the British to leave the EU, and can understand the sentiment to a certain degree, the manner in which they are doing so is farcical.

Two of the primary drivers of Brexit are the objectives of the UK being able to negotiate their own trade deals, and taking back control of borders.

As far as negotiating trade deals, they already had one within the EU and are in danger of ending up with less favourable terms after Brexit.
As far as controlling borders, all the emphasis has been on the potential impact of trade even though Brexit is supposed to herald 'the best deal possible with EU'. And as far as controlling immigration, unless barb wire fences are erected all along the border (wont happen) then anyone can simply get bus (or Dublin to Belfast train?)to the border, find a rural road, cross a field, and hey presto - they are in UK.

Deal or no deal, Brexit is a political quagmire, the impact of which will reverberate for a long time afterwards.
 
Just prepare for Germany/France to sell us out. This so called deal before Christmas is pure propagnda and of no use. Varadkar and co just used it to fool the public at the behest of their European masters.
Germany doesnt want to lose the UK markets for its Mercs, BMWs etc
 
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