bitcoin

[Duke of Marmalade]

tecate you have misinterpreted some of my points for which I take blame for my poor explanatory style.

You may not be in this camp but I was addressing jman and his link which seem to see bitcoin as the answer to the hunger for a trustless currency because trust in conventional currency infrastructures will have broken down. I am certainly not saying that is going to happen but maybe you should address your queries to jman who seems to think that it will happen.

One of the real nonsenses put about is that entries in conventional bank accounts are as meaningless as entries on the blockchain. I have addressed this before but in short the fact that the institutions appointed by society to make it their main purpose to maintain the meaningfulness of fiat hugely differentiates it from crypto, where about the only thing that is guaranteed is that there will be a limited supply provided you ignore the 100s of copycats.

I didn't say bitcoin will win out. But this is the current leg of the treble (in betting parlance) to support a price of $8,000.

 

[tecate]

You may not be in this camp but I was addressing jman and his link which seem to see bitcoin as the answer to the hunger for a trustless currency because trust in conventional currency infrastructures will have broken down. I am certainly not saying that is going to happen but maybe you should address your queries to jman who seems to think that it will happen.

There is already an issue of trust with regard to conventional banking practice. In fact, it's the whole raison d'etre for bitcoin in the first instance. Satoshi wrote the white paper for bitcoin in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The practices of the banking community at that time was far from wholesome.
Following on from that Financial Crisis (although some would disagree...) the practices of central banks (quantitative easing) with the speeding up of the debasement of the value in the pieces of paper in your wallet (be that euro or dollar or whatever) didn't help. Where there is any upside to Q.E., it benefits the small guy a lot less.
A system that assumes that it should be trustless is an advancement.

One of the real nonsenses put about is that entries in conventional bank accounts are as meaningless as entries on the blockchain. I have addressed this before but in short the fact that the institutions appointed by society to make it their main purpose to maintain the meaningfulness of fiat hugely differentiates it from crypto, where about the only thing that is guaranteed is that there will be a limited supply provided you ignore the 100s of copycats.

We are circling back to the intrinsic value argument i.e some suggest FIAT has whereas crypto has not and others that neither do other than market sentiment - peoples belief or otherwise in either of them. The article that was linked to suggested an acknowledgement that neither is backed by anything since the gold standard went away many decades ago.

I have addressed this before but in short the fact that the institutions appointed by society to make it their main purpose to maintain the meaningfulness of fiat hugely differentiates it from crypto, where about the only thing that is guaranteed is that there will be a limited supply provided you ignore the 100s of copycats.

I wouldn't get hung up on the copycats. At the end of the day, most people simply are not going to place any belief into most of them unless they identify some form of substance in them. Over time, most of them will go away.

I didn't say bitcoin will win out. But this is the current leg of the treble (in betting parlance) to support a price of $8,000.

I'm not sure if anyone is expecting any crypto to 'win out' over FIAT. I think it's more likely that both will co-exist.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I think in your dystopian future, you should place your trust in guys like these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2uJ6cCwqh0

They launched a $50m crypto over the weekend.

But hey they are young and "data nerds" so the future is with them and not with fuddy duddys like the Duke and me.

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Watched that video Boss. I think that verges on fraud. They repeatedly talked about how their ICO represented “value”. What’s to stop me offering value to the World. Oh I wouldn’t go to the bother of making a Blockchain, but I’m every bit as entitled to call my Marmalade Coins value as any nerd.

Actually they are quite clever fraudsters. They only accepted subscriptions in Ether. Therefore in taking a fraud case you would need to prove that the ICO has no value but in doing so you would also prove Ether has no value

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Not a complete breakdown, but a breakdown nonetheless.
In my short lifetime the Irish punt brokedown 3-4 times, the £Stg was broken down by George Soros, and our currency today - the euro!

The Irish punt broke from sterling in 1979. It trades today at about £1.13. Over the last 40 years the punt/£ has traded in a range between .75 and 1.15. You describe that as several breakdowns. By that measure bitcoin has a nervous breakdown every day.

and our currency today - the euro! One of the worlds leading currencies wreaking havoc through the economies that have adopted it, breaking economies instead of the currency.

The Greek government are even more pinko than your good self and they are perfectly free to exit the euro and adopt the bitcoin. The fact is that when they were under threat of being expelled from the euro for gross misbehaviour they begged to be kept inside and promised to do anything the ECB asked.

For someone who purports to carry out 99% of financial transactions digitally, I find this an odd statement.

Are you being particularly obdurate! I put no value on a digital entry per se no more than I would a piece of paper. But I have complete confidence in a digital entry in a system maintained by the ECB for the purpose of acting as a stable medium of exchange. What's more important I have never found any difficulty whatsoever in getting complete strangers to accept transfers of my digital entries in exchange for goods and services. I just don't see me going out shopping with just my bitcoin wallet but hey I'm old fashioned I know.

 

[TheBigShort]

The Irish punt broke from sterling in 1979. It trades today at about £1.13. Over the last 40 years the punt/£ has traded in a range between .75 and 1.15. You describe that as several breakdowns. By that measure bitcoin has a nervous breakdown every day.

I was refering to its devaluations, as directed by the central bank, authorised by the government.
But you are correct, it pales into insignificance to the roller coaster ride that is bitcoin. If bitcoin is to survive long-term, it will only do so if price stability is a feature.

The Greek government are even more pinko than your good self and they are perfectly free to exit the euro and adopt the bitcoin. The fact is that when they were under threat of being expelled from the euro for gross misbehaviour they begged to be kept inside and promised to do anything the ECB asked.

Actually there is no legal basis for any eurozone country to leave or be expelled from the euro.
There was no begging to be done. Greece cannot be expelled by anyone anymore than they can expel anyone else.
Obviously economic forces could dictate otherwise, and considering its construct, the euro is ripe to hobble from one crisis to another.

have complete confidence in a digital entry in a system maintained by the ECB for the purpose of acting as a stable medium of exchange. What's more important I have never found any difficulty whatsoever in getting complete strangers to accept transfers of my digital entries in exchange for goods and services. I just don't see me going out shopping with just my bitcoin wallet but hey I'm old fashioned I know.

It seems to me that anyone who has bought bitcoin is open to the real possibility that it could return to zero. That they are acutely aware of its volatility. But they are also aware of its potential. They are also acutely aware that the monetary system as it exists is unstable at best with the potential to implode at worst.

I have every confidence that the euro wil be here for the forseeable future. But im also aware of the vast manipulation that is occuring in order to keep it together. My guess is that such manipulation has the potential to undermine its value long-term.

It seems to me that because your groceries are not priced in bitcoin today, that therefore it doesnt, cant, wont work or have value.

It may return to zero, it may not work long-term. But im open to the possibility that it may work long-term, as im open to possibility that confidence in the euro may diminish further or collapse altogether.

 

[tecate]

I think in your dystopian future, you should place your trust in guys like these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2uJ6cCwqh0

They launched a $50m crypto over the weekend.

But hey they are young and "data nerds" so the future is with them and not with fuddy duddys like the Duke and me.

Brendan

I don't think you have an understanding in what they're offering. They're building out cryptocurrency infrastructure by way of a decentralised exchange. Nearly all crypto exchanges are centralised right now. With that, comes the risk of theft - just like we saw with the hack of the Japanese exchange a few weeks ago. Decentralised exchanges avoid this risk. That is how they add value with their project and ICO. Coinbase revenues exceeded $1 billion in 2017. If there is a move towards decentralised exchanges, then clearly there is a market to exploit.

Watched that video Boss. I think that verges on fraud. They repeatedly talked about how their ICO represented “value”. What’s to stop me offering value to the World. Oh I wouldn’t go to the bother of making a Blockchain, but I’m every bit as entitled to call my Marmalade Coins value as any nerd.

If it's 'fraud', then report it - see where that ends up. Again, you are circling back to the intrinsic value aspect - where you believe any crypto has none but FIAT does. I understand your point - but I don't necessarily agree. As regards Marmalade Coins, have at it. There is no doubt that there is a shed load of ICO's that are based on vapourware but I don't think Brendan picked the best example in this instance to demonstrate that.

Actually they are quite clever fraudsters. They only accepted subscriptions in Ether. Therefore in taking a fraud case you would need to prove that the ICO has no value but in doing so you would also prove Ether has no value

In your opinion. ;-)
They work through Ether as their project runs on the Ethereum platform. I'm not a developer but my understanding is that Ethereum provides a lot more possibilites than Bitcoin to build out applications.

 

[TheBigShort]

I think in your dystopian future, you should place your trust in guys like these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2uJ6cCwqh0

They launched a $50m crypto over the weekend.

But hey they are young and "data nerds" so the future is with them and not with fuddy duddys like the Duke and me.

Brendan

Respecting your view that bitcoin will return to zero, I do think however there is underlying ignorance in your views to all these new concepts.
I cant say for certain how, or when, or in what exact form all these new developments in blockchain, crypto etc will ultimately pan out. And I cant say I even understand half of the stuff that is behind blockchain etc.
But what is clear to me, is that there are fundamental changes occuring in the way we will all be transacting with each other in the future.
It is clear to me that between all tech heads and data nerds, if all of this was bogus, some of them would have called it out by now.
While there are no doubt chancers and fraudsters abound on the crypto/blockchain space, fundamentally the technology is advancing and powering ahead - and not just with data nerds in attic lofts either.
Personally I think it is a fascinating time watching all this unfold and to trying to understand the concepts that are driving it.

 

[jman0war]

I think in your dystopian future, you should place your trust in guys like these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2uJ6cCwqh0

They launched a $50m crypto over the weekend.

But hey they are young and "data nerds" so the future is with them and not with fuddy duddys like the Duke and me.

Brendan

Don't Trust, Brendan; Verify.

https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-core/features/validation

Do You Validate Your Transactions?
Some people confuse supporting the network with helping to protect Bitcoin’s decentralization.

To improve your security and help protect decentralization, you must use a wallet that fully validates received transactions

 

[lukas888]

For all Bitcoin junkies Panorama special BBC1 Monday 8.30 pm.

 

[TheBigShort]

This is the trailer on the BBC website


"Bitcoin is the world's leading virtual currency, but unlike real money, it is not backed by a government or properly regulated. Bitcoin is exchanged and held digitally by users - which is attractive to criminals selling drugs, pornography and arms. But now Bitcoin is moving into the mainstream and being openly marketed as an investment opportunity.

Panorama investigates what Bitcoin is and what it means, going inside a Bitcoin mine in Iceland - where currency is made - and spending time with the Bitcoin millionaires of Silicon Valley. The programme also hears from others who have been scammed out of their life savings and investors who think the cryptocurrency is an enormous scam and that the writing is on the wall.

In Britain, and around the world, authorities are sounding the alarm that Bitcoin is too risky - is it too late, or too crazy, to try to become a Bitcoin millionaire?"

So before the programme is even aired, a couple of obs.

1. “unlike real money” – a loaded phrase, already biased in outlook.
   
2. “Bitcoin is exchanged and held digitally by users - which is attractive to criminals selling drugs, pornography and arms” - Unlike cash or 'real' money?
3. “The programme also hears from others who have been scammed out of their life savings”. This will be interesting to see was it bitcoin that scammed the investors or was it hackers, bogus websites, exchanges etc.
4. “But now Bitcoin is moving into the mainstream and being openly marketed as an investment opportunity.” – It will be interesting to see who is marketing it.
5. “investors who think the cryptocurrency is an enormous scam and that the writing is on the wall.” This will be interesting. As Ive mentioned before Im open to persuasion on the whole bitcoin, crypto space.

• 
  “In Britain, and around the world, authorities are sounding the alarm that Bitcoin is too risky”
  
  Somewhat misleading I think. This is what the BoE website has to say about bitcoin and digital currencies;
  
  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/digital-currencies

Private digital currencies

Private digital currencies combine new payments systems with new currencies that are not issued by a central bank. The most well-known privately issued digital currency is Bitcoin, but other examples include LiteCoin, Ethereum and Ripple. We have assessed private digital currencies and concluded that while they are interesting, they do not currently pose a material risk to monetary or financial stability in the UK. We continue to monitor developments in this area.

In fairness, it is a TV programme and my understanding is that the TV ratings game is a tough business. Viewers beware!

 

[tecate]

“unlike real money” – a loaded phrase, already biased in outlook.

1. “Bitcoin is exchanged and held digitally by users - which is attractive to criminals selling drugs, pornography and arms” - Unlike cash or 'real' money?
2. “The programme also hears from others who have been scammed out of their life savings”. This will be interesting to see was it bitcoin that scammed the investors or was it hackers, bogus websites, exchanges etc.
3. “But now Bitcoin is moving into the mainstream and being openly marketed as an investment opportunity.” – It will be interesting to see who is marketing it.
4. “investors who think the cryptocurrency is an enormous scam and that the writing is on the wall.” This will be interesting. As Ive mentioned before Im open to persuasion on the whole bitcoin, crypto space.“In Britain, and around the world, authorities are sounding the alarm that Bitcoin is too risky”Somewhat misleading I think. This is what the BoE website has to say about bitcoin and digital currencies

Your're right about the 'real' money reference. I've no doubt that they will have real life case studies of those that have been scammed (or mislead) in parting with their life savings. However, this won't involve people simply buying crytocurrency - it will involve third parties who have gotten involved and are cashing in on peoples lack of knowledge.
As regards it being 'marketed', again you're quite right. The only ones 'marketing' anything here could only be a third party - in which case they are not going to be suggesting people simply buy bitcoin (or another crypto) directly. Bitcoin is decentralised - there is no 'marketing dept'.
I think the last point is fair enough ref. bitcoin is too risky. I think everyone acknowledges that it's a high risk item. I also think it's fair enough for them to discuss the view that the writing is on the wall for crypto. Many people here are of that view and the discussion here mirrors discussions elsewhere. The maintenance of positive market sentiment - together with the need for day to day usability to be brought to the fore are pretty central to the extent to which crypto can exist with some sort of store of value attached to it. Of course, if it does go down to zero, that kills the speculation but the technology will still continue to be developed.

 

[TheBigShort]

I think everyone acknowledges that it's a high risk item. I also think it's fair enough for them to discuss the view that the writing is on the wall for crypto. Many people here are of that view and the discussion here mirrors discussions elsewhere.

Absolutely. I think its high volatility is there for everyone to see. The point was however, according to the promo, was that the authorities in Britain and around the world are sounding alarm bells that it is too risky. They aren't.
There is a lot of noise in the media about bitcoin that suggests authorities are sounding alarm bells, but when you look behind the headlines the details of the 'crackdowns' etc tend to be a lot softer that what the headlines imply.
I used the example of the BoE website to show this. Another example was an apparent 'crackdown' in South Korea against bitcoin exchanges. Instead, it transpired, was that exchanges were to implement KYC checks on their accounts - pretty standard stuff I would have thought.

I'm just guessing, but I suspect this programme will be more noise than substance.

 

[lukas888]

Panorama is the world's longest running current affairs programme.From the early days of the great Richard Dimbleby it has always been regarded as the best and not prone to sensationalism.But it's obvious that the Bitcoin fans have dismissed it even before it's aired.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Panorama is the world's longest running current affairs programme.From the early days of the great Richard Dimbleby it has always been regarded as the best and not prone to sensationalism.But it's obvious that the Bitcoin fans have dismissed it even before it's aired.

The sensitivity of Millennials should never be underestimated. Nor should the sensitivity of Bitcoin zealots. They really believe that this nonsense represents disruption on a grand scale and a means to wrest control from the authorities. It doesn’t; it’s a scam and a bubble, and if regulation doesn’t kill it, common sense will.

 

[TheBigShort]

Panorama is the world's longest running current affairs programme.From the early days of the great Richard Dimbleby it has always been regarded as the best and not prone to sensationalism.But it's obvious that the Bitcoin fans have dismissed it even before it's aired.

I havent dismissed it all. In fact I stated clearly above that I am open to persuasion.
I do admit however, given the tone of the promo, that I suspect it to be somewhat biased for the reasons outlined above.

I may be proven incorrect. No doubt, after the programme has aired, we will know better.

 

[Firefly]

This is the trailer on the BBC website

So before the programme is even aired, a couple of obs.

1. “unlike real money” – a loaded phrase, already biased in outlook

Nice one. Sure you can never trust these public sector broadcasters can you?

 

[TheBigShort]

Nice one. Sure you can never trust these public sector broadcasters can you?

Absolutely, or any of them for that matter - they are in the business of TV ratings, nothing else. Having said that, had they issued a promo along the lines of
- "tonight we investigate the bitcoin and crypto phenomenon, from those who have made millions and those who lost out. And we show how the regulators will kill it, or if not them, then common sense".

That would be intriguing to watch.

 

[tecate]

Eh, it's clear from my post above that I have NOT dismissed it. However, I'll bet that the example they give of whomever lost their life savings in a 'scam' involves some third party entity. The reference to 'real' money is not a neutral statement either.
With regard to the reference to 'marketing', bitcoin is decentralised. There is no 'marketing' (unless again it involves some third party scam artists...who have nothing to do with the project).
Lastly, re. the jibe about public service broadcasters, whatever about the BBC, it's something for an Irish citizen to come out with that given what we have for a ''broadcaster' #rtebias (TV thrown out 3 years ago for that very reason).

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

You bitcoin zlts are very touchy. Read that first sentence again. “real” is used in contrast to “virtual” a well known apple and orange juxtaposition not impugning either object.

The zlts would presumably suggest that “bitcoin is digital gold, unlike fiat it does not rely on corrupt central banks” provides more balance.