Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

It is a truly weird and I suggest unprecedented situation. Yes, we have had massive falls and come-backs in share prices but these would be supported by fundamentals of value such as revenues, for example Apple. But with bitcoin there are no such fundamentals. Nothing has changed in 12 months on the fundamentals of bitcoin but its price has fallen 80%. I understand how folk could ask "if it was $67k a year ago and nothing has changed, what is to stop it going back to $67k?"
I hope you brought your flask and a boot load of hang sandwiches Duke, because we're going to be here for a while! :D


Having backed away from Bitcoin around 2018ish, the Collisons are back in.


Meanwhile, on the expectations of reduced Bitcoin volatility, the CFTC Chair had this to say:



I'm also calling for the title of this thread to be changed to the following:

"Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable series of ongoing economic bubbles"
 
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I guess anyone wondering about inherent value of the Crypto currency craze just needs to look at FTX and 'SBF'.
From $32 Billion perceived wealth to $100k in little more than a few days.

QED and all that.
 
I guess anyone wondering about inherent value of the Crypto currency craze just needs to look at FTX and 'SBF'.
From $32 Billion perceived wealth to $100k in little more than a few days.

QED and all that.
The FTX failure is one of latent fraud implicating centralized finance - not decentralized finance. He never had $32 billion and he certainly has much more than $100,000. It's an incredibly costly exercise for those caught up in it - but in the longer run, the FTX saga will make Bitcoin stronger. It has also acted as a wake up call for DeFi projects to double down on actual decentralization. Many of them have been found to have weaknesses and flaws in terms of the degree of actual decentralization implicated.

It has already driven self custody of Bitcoin to its highest levels - while flushing out 'paper' Bitcoin. FTX weren't actually buying or allocating any Bitcoin to customers in reality. They kept a float to provide to customers only when they withdrew BTC from the platform. My understanding is that this was fraudulent. There are platforms that operate in a similar way (Etoro) but they declare it from the outset.

Service terms and conditions explicitly state that digital currency brought onto the platform or purchased on the platform is the property of the customer. This guy took those deposits and bunged them into another company that he owns but that the customer has no connection with whatsoever. This is fraud. He's trying to squirm out from under this by suggesting that he had no idea what his other company was doing.

And while this subject has come up, it's interesting to note that while all and sundry have dissed crypto media and suggested that the mainstream media of record is unblemished, they have been found to be part of this scandal. Immediately afterwards, puff pieces appeared in the NYT, the FT, The WaPo, etc. ....that so obviously were designed to paint a completely different picture than the fraud that has taken place.

Meanwhile the top dogs of the conventional investing world (not crypto!) were shown to be doing zero due diligence. We're talking about BlackRock, Sequoia, etc. The politicians were busy counting dollar bills - paid over by SBF to both parties (most of it in recent weeks as 'keep me out of prison' money). This has been the cost of doing business in the US for many years - nobody even hides it - it's a corrupt practice of the existing system - not of crypto. And then we had the regulators who in one case scrambled to remove photos of them meeting with SBF from twitter (if the regulator cant be transparent who can?), having met with him or his team multiple times.

In another case (Gensler and the SEC), he was busy making an example out of Kim Kardashian, refusing to meet with genuine crypto companies, prosecuting small projects that couldn't afford the legal fight when it came to securities law and meeting with SBF on multiple occasions. Of course Gensler's previous boss was the father of the CEO of Alameda Research. He's aligned with Elizabeth Warren - who is good friends with SBFs mother.


All the while, Gensler has not been providing the regulatory clarity that the industry was lobbying for, resulting in platforms like FTX gaining traction overseas and giving customers a reason to engage with offshore platforms. None of this is crypto-specific.
 
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@newirishman I know, right?...although his claim almost looks reasonable when compared to the Bitcoin going to zero claims. :p
This AFS* is what is keeping the bitcoin price surprisingly stable and relatively high by historic standards.

*Asymmetry Fixation Syndrome - ok so the chances of going to $250k are pretty slim but there is even less chance of going to zero and it certainly can't go below zero. $16k looks like a no-brainer punt.
 
This AFS* is what is keeping the bitcoin price surprisingly stable and relatively high by historic standards.
You can try and misrepresent what I stated any which way you want Duke. He made his point - I agree with him, it's a pretty outlandish claim for 2023. However, I'm more than justified in covering the other end of the spectrum. The claims of going to zero have been ongoing since this debate started here in 2017 and they're even more remote now than ever.

And yet if there was ever a time to call the death of bitcoin, it's right now. We had a wild hype cycle where someone here said on the way down, who the hell is going to buy BTC after this with so many burnt? While I didn't and don't agree with him in terms of how this pans out ultimately, of course there is some validity to his point in the short to medium term.

Then we had multiple centralized finance outfits related to the space blow up spectacularly....I was going to say ending* with a Madoff moment affecting 1 million people. The main stream media and some other folks started taking victory laps (I even got a xmas drinks invitation when I don't remember getting one last year! :D) Sectoral reputation is in the toilet and yet I'm far more bullish right now than I was in 2018.

Nature is healing Duke and where some (of a certain bias) gleefully think this is very much a time of vindication, it's a wonderous opportunity for the sector to shake off the grifters, become more robust and build onwards. There are a couple of schools of thought...some feeling we may have bottomed here, some that think 10k still awaits. I don't mind either way. I've bought a little here and I'll buy again if we're going down from here because the dumpster fire moments are much more useful than the overexuberant highs.

*There might be a couple more shoes to drop yet - Genesis (and less likely but can't be ruled out, Binance and the old perennial Tether).
 
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I wasn't having a go at you my dear @tecate. I was expounding my theory as to why the price is so robust and indeed non-volatile given the head hurricanes of 2022. AFS is my main explanation. It might need another hurricane* to hasten the eventual demise of bitcoin as predicted by Warren Buffet and all the other mainstream gurus.

* Tether may be it
 

Paradise lost? How crypto failed to deliver on its promises and what to do about it​

Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference, 23 June 2023​

 

Paradise lost? How crypto failed to deliver on its promises and what to do about it​

Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference, 23 June 2023​

Fabio of ECB said:
And if the balloon is full of hot air, it may rise for a while but will burst in the end.
Well the Boss and I have always argued that Bitcoin is a BOHA.
The only aspect of this speech which I take issue with is this populist eco argument. Crypto gamblers are entitled to use the electricity system as much as anyone else.
 

Paradise lost? How crypto failed to deliver on its promises and what to do about it

Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the future of crypto at the 22nd BIS Annual Conference, 23 June 2023

And what to do about it? If it failed, there's nothing to do about it right? Right? :D


In other news, a new radical group, Turkey's Against Christmas (TAC), has said that Christmas has failed to deliver and its meeting next Tuesday at 7.30pm at McSorleys in Ranelagh to figure out "what to do about it."
Well the Boss and I have always argued that Bitcoin is a BOHA.
The only aspect of this speech which I take issue with is this populist eco argument. Crypto gamblers are entitled to use the electricity system as much as anyone else.
Let's see. Since we last discussed...

- The US (and by that I mean the Biden Admin) has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at crypto and nobody cares.
- First Digital launches USD stablecoin in Hong Kong, proving that all the US is doing is losing complete control.
- The Asians (and others) are licking their lips. Hong Kong is open for business. Singapore, Abu Dhabi & Dubai are open for business. Regulatory frameworks in place.
- BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has filed for a BTC ETF.
- The IMF is now telling us that "crypto bans may not be effective." We've been telling you that from the get go, IMF.
- HSBC HK has just enabled direct access to 3x crypto ETFs for its banking customers.
- Fidelity/Schwab/Citadel to launch EDX crypto exchange
- Meanwhile, German TV is showing clips demonstrating the environmental benefits of Bitcoin mining.
- Citi tell us that real world asset tokenization is a trillion dollar opportunity (market to reach $5 trillion by 2030) and a killer use case in crypto.
- Japan just changed tax rules so that token issuers no longer have to pay corporate taxes on unrealized crypto gains.
 
- Citi tell us that real world asset tokenization is a trillion dollar opportunity (market to reach $5 trillion by 2030) and a killer use case in crypto.
Great to get the latest propaganda fodder for the cult.
I admit that I am greatly surprised (and disappointed) by the resilience of bitcoin.
But the words of our own Central Banker and this Fabio guy strengthen my conviction that bitcoin is BOHA.
But what I missed is the capacity for homo sapiens to delude itself. Take religions. They do have some fairly hard to believe claims and they can't all be right. Yet many have survived for thousands of years :mad:

As for tokenisation of real assets that is off topic. Bitcoin is not a real asset. Start a thread on the uses of blockchain.
 
Honestly the very 1st sentence of his conclusion is false.
"Conclusion
To conclude, crypto-assets have been promoted as decentralised alternatives promising more resilient financial services"

I'd say surviving all the attacks on crypto by regulators, governments and bad actors, shows the resilience of crypto.
He certainly has omitted the un-censorable transactioning component of crypto from his definition of resilience.

Basically it's just a hit piece by someone that wants to control you and your access to money.
 
I admit that I am greatly surprised (and disappointed) by the resilience of bitcoin.
But the words of our own Central Banker and this Fabio guy strengthen my conviction that bitcoin is BOHA.
But what I missed is the capacity for homo sapiens to delude itself. Take religions. They do have some fairly hard to believe claims and they can't all be right. Yet many have survived for thousands of years :mad:
Duke, as honorary president of TAC, will be appearing at McSorleys next Tuesday night, where he will be signing copies of his book, "Denial: A Memoir".

As for tokenisation of real assets that is off topic. Bitcoin is not a real asset. Start a thread on the uses of blockchain.
Fair enough - I'll be holding you to that standard and I'll remind you of this, the next moment you step foot in crypto vs. Bitcoin. :)

Honestly the very 1st sentence of his conclusion is false.
"Conclusion
To conclude, crypto-assets have been promoted as decentralised alternatives promising more resilient financial services"

I'd say surviving all the attacks on crypto by regulators, governments and bad actors, shows the resilience of crypto.
He certainly has omitted the un-censorable transactioning component of crypto from his definition of resilience.

Basically it's just a hit piece by someone that wants to control you and your access to money.

Here's a convicted fraudster telling us that climate change causes inflation. These people are capable of coming out with any old drivel.

Basically it's just a hit piece by someone that wants to control you and your access to money.

Speaking of control, practically every single central bank on the face of the earth is working on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) right now. That's when we will see the true horrors of that control - with money that can be programmed by them to determine how long you have to spend it, where you can spend it, on what you can spend it.
 
Basically it's just a hit piece by someone that wants to control you and your access to money.
Speaking of control, practically every single central bank on the face of the earth is working on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) right now. That's when we will see the true horrors of that control - with money that can be programmed by them to determine how long you have to spend it, where you can spend it, on what you can spend it.
That's why I am glad I am stupid and nigh eve. I actually believe that the central banks in our democracies are doing what they think is best for our economies.
It must be very depressing to see through the evil corrupt system that we are "controlled" by. Lighten up - they may be hopelessly corrupt but heck they haven't done too badly for the plebs.
Though on second thoughts maybe I should escape to El Salvador.
 
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Speaking of control, practically every single central bank on the face of the earth is working on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) right now.

If or when this happens, surely anyone holding bitcoin will be left with a digital currency that no one wants or needs to use ?
 
That's why I am glad I am stupid and nigh eve. I actually believe that the central banks in our democracies are doing what they think is best for our economies.
It must be very depressing to see through the evil corrupt system that we live under. Lighten up - they may be hopelessly corrupt but heck they haven't done too badly for the plebs.
So the 'trust me bro' approach to central governance. Nothing can possibly go wrong with that, you're quite right.

Though on second thoughts maybe I should escape to El Salvador.
Ah yes, we're talking about the El Salvador that adopted BTC as legal tender and immediately the IMF kicked up and said that it wouldn't be able to pay back its loans. El Salvador's historic economic issues were exactly that - historic, having nothing to do with BTC adoption. The IMFs prediction (wish?) was wrong - the country met its debt repayment obligations. In the meantime, many others haven't - but we shouldn't talk about them.
This is the El Salvador where the guy that brought in La Ley Bitcoin has an approval rating of 93%, the highest approval rating of any leader in Latam. El Salvador is leveraging La Ley Bitcoin, attracting Bitcoin start-ups to the Central American country.
 
If or when this happens, surely anyone holding bitcoin will be left with a digital currency that no one wants or needs to use ?
You're kidding, right? CBDCs will drive more people to Bitcoin - not the other way around. If you believe this to be the case, then you have zero understanding of what Bitcoin and decentralized money is all about.
 
If or when this happens, surely anyone holding bitcoin will be left with a digital currency that no one wants or needs to use ?
My understanding is that a central bank digital currency is nothing more than ordinary folk being able to have their current accounts with the CB. As it is, most of us use the commercial banks for our digital currency. (I haven't spent a real penny in weeks). Don't understand why they need any development work. It would be a fairly fundamental change to the monetary system. For example it would remove a source of funding for the commercial banks with big implications for the economy.
This is not at all a threat to bitcoin. Bitcoin set out to be decentralised and censor free, obviously CBDC is not that. But that was a long time ago. For many years now bitcoin has been a speculative bauble. A CBDC has no speculative value.
 
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