Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

@tecate a trivia for you. Do you realise that on no less than 8 threads on just the first page of this forum you have the last word, well temporarily down to 7. Just saying.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@tecate a trivia for you. Do you realise that on no less than 8 threads on just the first page of this forum you have the last word, well temporarily down to 7. Just saying.
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This is something that you are fixated on - not me. I've never once mentioned anything about any 'last word'. It's a discussion board - my understanding is, if you have something to post, post it. If you don't, then don't.
 
tecate said:
This is something that you are fixated on - not me. I've never once mentioned anything about any 'last word'. It's a discussion board - my understanding is, if you have something to post, post it. If you don't, then don't.
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That would be Q.E.D. in my book
 
As someone previously said the bitcoin threads will be very interesting to look back on in the future for one reason or another. It's nice to have some 'mile markers'

Today it's at $23k. Bitcoin recently reached the point of 91% of the eventual 21m being in circulation. Supply will increase by 1.76% over the next year. The next halving is just over 1.5 years away, estimated to be April 20, 2024.

I was surprised by the depths of the lows in the summer, but the news that Tesla sold almost a billion $ worth on top of the forced liquidations by the struggling or failing businesses (celsius, 3AC, etc) explains it.

Bitcoin stopped going down (so far!) 7 weeks ago on 18th of June at around $16.75k
 
I'll admit to being surprised (and disappointed) at bitcoin's bounce; I hope it is of the dead cat variety.
Without wishing to rehash the previous 39 pages, I still believe the "supply/demand" curve is purely driven by the current balance of speculation as to where the price will go. Nothing else behaves like this. Yes there are speculators in any Forex market but supply/demand is dominated by utility considerations. Come on @tecate get that number back to 8
 
ArthurMcB said:
Why though? Why always such strong disappointment at bitcoins gains. I get that you dont believe in it etc etc but I dont get the strong opposition all the time.
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Yep Arthur, I am a bit annoyed with myself that I have developed an emotional attachment to the demise of bitcoin. It is not resentment that I missed the boat, though I certainly did. For some reason the sheer nonsense of it and its 10,000 kopy-kats and the rubbish spoken by the likes of Saylor really gets up my nose. Nothing against @tecate ; jostling with him/her is one of the bright spots in this madness.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I'll admit to being surprised (and disappointed) at bitcoin's bounce; I hope it is of the dead cat variety.
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This sounds familiar. Didn't you previously admit to being surprised (and disappointed) at Bitcoin's recovery from its 2018 low?
Duke of Marmalade said:
Nothing else behaves like this.
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You are sooo right and you don't even realise it!

ArthurMcB said:
Why though? Why always such strong disappointment at bitcoins gains. . . . I dont get the strong opposition all the time.
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LINK
Duke of Marmalade said:
I have developed an emotional attachment to the demise of bitcoin.
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@ArthurMcB Is this your first intervention? I don't know much about this sort of stuff but I think this is Step 1 on Duke's road to recovery? Amirite? You're doing Gods work, Arthur - please continue.
 
So Blackrock, the world's biggest money manager with $10 trillion under management - is now in.

This comes a year after Blackrock - 2nd largest institutional investor in Tesla - is believed to have pressured Musk to back down on Bitcoin on ESG grounds. Today, the World Economic Forum is commending Blackrock for "aspiring to ESG principles" while Blackrock says Bitcoin is now fine because "greater transparency" is being brought to sustainable energy usage in Bitcoin mining.


The SEC has refused to approve a Bitcoin ETF - forcing people in TradFi to use a futures product where they're paying through the nose on fees OR buy shares in Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) where they're finding their shares are underwater and trading at a major discount to Bitcoin spot price. With Blackrock now involved, no doubt there will be an ETF within 6 months.

Of course, they're not alone - the other filthy animals are also jumping in - Charles Schwab


All of that news comes on the same day as this:

JPMorgan traders found guilty of manipulating gold market for years


The bigger money seems to be arriving but it will come with a new set of risks and headaches. Hopefully Bitcoin's auditability will save it from being captured like gold has been.
 
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tecate said:
The bigger money seems to be arriving but it will come with a new set of risks and headaches. Hopefully Bitcoin's auditability will save it from being captured like gold has been.
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It's not just the auditability, though that is great, it's that it's easier to take 'physical' delivery so ultimately there should less reliance on trusting third party custodians, even if it's via some hybrid approach like multi-sig. The things that should allow bitcoin to be better here:

1) Supply is transparent. We have no factual data on how much gold exists (both above and below ground) only estimates, and even if we did we'd have no way of verifying it ourselves.
2) Easier to take delivery of bitcoin than gold
3) Custodians can release mathematical proof of the bitcoin they hold, making on-going auditing trivial.
4) Multi-sig can reduce the dependence on custodians, while still providing some of the benefit.
 
Peanuts20 said:
This is well worth a read for anyone with an interest or view on Bitcoin

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Good read indeed, but you should have warned me to have a packet of peanuts - it's long
Best quote:
Intelligencer said:
Crypto is a game of creating virtual fortunes out of thin air and convincing other humans with traditional forms of money that those virtual fortunes deserve to be real-world ones.
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The Three Arrows Capital (3AC) saga is being likened to the implosion of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) back in the day. Here's a good analysis that draws parrallels between those two debacles - LINK.

That leverage-induced disaster came and went - and bond markets still existed afterwards. This 3AC leveraged crap show as it relates to Bitcoin will be the very same. The integrity of decentralised Bitcoin is beyond reproach. The integrity of centralised actors like 3AC is not. Likewise for the centralized crypto lenders who had 3AC as their primary client and have subsequently gone bust.

Imagine how fast the sector corrects itself. It has already dealt with the 3AC saga in a matter of a few short months. LTCM involved a bailout. There are no bailouts in crypto. Leverage is the devil - but people are inherently greedy so no doubt it will return again eventually. I think that it's also likely that there will be some semblance of risk management put in place and the sector will be more resilient moving on from this.
 
I just browsed over a few of the pages here, I hope I'm not re-opening old wounds by bringing the thread back to life. I decided to take a punt on some Bitcoin. I bought one last week at €15,500. I don't pretend to know how it's going to work out, it's too erratic. I just had 15K that would not hurt me if I lost it and I decided to take a punt, it appears to be in a slump at the moment and I'm gonna sit on it for a few years and cross my fingers it explodes again at some point in the future!
 
That is an interesting insight into why the price of bitcoin has shown fairly remarkable robustness in the face of some strong crypto headwinds.
I mightn't be describing you accurately for which I apologise but I can see a constituency who would see this is a very asymmetric punt. It is currently at US$17k. Fairly recently it has been as high as $67k and, so far as I am aware, some pundits are still targeting prices of over $500k. Furthermore it has been pointed out that bitcoin has sprang back from several slumps in the past. So $17k that you can easily spare and is the most you can lose, while the sky seems to be the limit on the upside.
It is difficult to see what would happen to eliminate this mindset - in fact the further it falls the more it feeds the apparent asymmetry.
 
Yes, that's a fair description. To summarise, there's potentially a whole lot of upside to this, while is downside is limited. There's also a contrarian investment element.. "buy when there's blood in the streets," kind of thing.
 
It is a truly weird and I suggest unprecedented situation. Yes, we have had massive falls and come-backs in share prices but these would be supported by fundamentals of value such as revenues, for example Apple. But with bitcoin there are no such fundamentals. Nothing has changed in 12 months on the fundamentals of bitcoin but its price has fallen 80%. I understand how folk could ask "if it was $67k a year ago and nothing has changed, what is to stop it going back to $67k?"
 
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