The Lindy Effect is also relevant in this context.But even when having a punt on crypto more money will choose bitcoin than any other crypto, because it's effectively the Schelling Point of crypto, in large part because of the network effects. The same as why there are more posts on here about bitcoin than all other cryptos combined.
Bitcoin has lasted 13 years and will I am sure outlive most of the 10,000 kopykats. The US$ has lasted 250 years.The Lindy Effect is also relevant in this context.
"The Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy".
I think it is something more, it's positive feedback loops that lead to the network growing because it's already the biggest.Bitcoin is the queen of the cryptos and no doubt about it. But network effect suggests something somewhat grander than being the most held or known.
Hype cycles are ugly but they do catch peoples attention. I've come across countless stories of folks who bought $50 worth of Bitcoin upon hearing of it - due to a bit of curiosity as to what it was all about - only to delve deeper into it - and reach the conclusion that there was something of substance to it. You're the exception to that rule Duke - as there's no doubt that you've gone down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. However, you also belong to a demographic that statistically is far less likely to appreciate the value/use case.Certainly I only ever had one punt on crypto and that was on bitcoin and it was absolutely just a punt, not in the least interested in its use as a currency or its network effect.
Related to that, Anthony Scaramucci often makes the point that once Bitcoin had reached a higher unit price/market cap, it meant that over the longer term, it represents a lesser risk - as it has demonstrated a certain level of staying power, meaning that it has past the 'fad' stage.I can see some reasons that Lindy Effect would apply tecate. Anecdotally, there were definitely a lot of people whose original reaction to Bitcoin was "I'm not going to even bother spending time understanding this because it's probably a fad. Come back to me if it still exists after 5 or 10 years". And people who originally dimissed it but came back confused when it continued to grow and put more effort in to understand why - most notably Michael Saylor - from sceptic to owning 0.6%.
Well, technically it has. In reality, pre-'71 USD is a completely different currency to post '71 USD. GBP is the oldest currency. It was supposed to represent 12 ounces of silver. It represents less than 0.5% of that value now. The same deal with the USD. These are outliers though. There have been many other fiat currencies that have failed over a much shorter timeframe.The US$ has lasted 250 years.
Maybe 70% falls triggered some negative feedback loops. You make it sound like a service - Ryanair passengers giving positive feedback. The only thing the vast majority of bitcoin holders want, is not an alternative way to buy latte in El Salvador, but a windfall profit.I think it is something more, it's positive feedback loops that lead to the network growing because it's already the biggest.
I guess so, or rather that some negative feedback loops cause the 70% drop. I've been thinking a lot lately about the this drop, as I didn't expect it to be so much considering not much has changed fundamentally, and 'the cult', as you would put it, by and large don't seem to be capitulating. There's not a lot of evidence that recent large new holders have sold, for example MicroStrategy and Tesla haven't.Maybe 70% falls triggered some negative feedback loops.
yes, we at a minimum want it to be a successful long term store of value, but we won't say no to a windfall profit either - the reward for the risk we take as early adopters. Would also be pleased for bitcoin to succeed because competition is good pressure for keeping the legacy system honest.You make it sound like a service - Ryanair passengers giving positive feedback. The only thing the vast majority of bitcoin holders want, is not an alternative way to buy latte in El Salvador, but a windfall profit.
Do you find utility in tulip bulbs?It depends on the size of the network. The fact that people are members of the network implies it has use to them, or else why are they members of it?
You can tell me bitcoin serves no use to me, and I can tell you it does, and we'll just go around in circles. But ultimately I consider myself the sole judge of what I find utility in and not you.
not really, and certainly not as money.Do you find utility in tulip bulbs?
Don't think anyone is arguing that you can't make money.Anyone who bought the bottom in the past 2 months or so has almost doubled their money on alts but most people here are still adamant crypto has no place in a person's portfolio
As always make sure you get your initial out as quickly as possible
Reminds me somewhat of BTC.not really, and certainly not as money.
George Mallory came in at 12/1 at the 1:35 at Uttoxeter, but most people are still adamant that betting slips have no place in a person's portfolio.Anyone who bought the bottom in the past 2 months or so has almost doubled their money on alts but most people here are still adamant crypto has no place in a person's portfolio
As always make sure you get your initial out as quickly as possible
For money? Absolutely. Government guarantees to accept it for the tax bill. All the shops and services accept it. Very handy, really. The guy at the local Centre was most unimpressed last time I tried to pay him my great great grandfather's South Sea Island share certs, 3 tulip bulbs and a printout of an email from Nigerian civil servant.Sounds like you're better off sticking with something safe like euros.