Key Post Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

tecate said:
I guess you did. My recommendation would be to go back and read through those again.
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Nope, still not seeing any. Go on humour me...where is it? Was it around the time you claimed PCs only started to be shipped in the '90s? :D
 
Leo said:
Nope, still not seeing any. Go on humour me...where is it? Was it around the time you claimed PCs only started to be shipped in the '90s? :D
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Leo, as per a whole host of posts, I have NO intention of humouring you. My view is underpinned by a wealth of professional opinion. If you want to take issue with that, have at it. You talk about 'my claim' repeatedly when I was just responding to something you brought into the conversation (and which I repeatedly questioned the relevance of).

Bottom line Leo - a wealth of people far better qualified on the subject than you believe that criminals are early adopters of tech. You've done little here to provide a counter argument.

Now, as I've asked you a 100 times already, we can park this up. There's nothing wrong with people holding different viewpoints.
 
SGWidow said:
I wonder what's become of the early bitcoiners of this thread? Haven't seen them lately - presumably struggling for internet connection from their yachts in the South Pacific or something?
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I cashed out some of my holdings and bought a house with it.
I don't accumulate anymore, just waiting for the price to reach my next exit.

I don't usually visit bitcoin threads much anymore because i don't actually care what anybody else thinks of it.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I remember well the conversations I had with people at the time of the dot.com bubble.

It was simply impossible to have a rational discussion with people who "believed". These were often very clever people. They might have taken a punt on lastminute.com or whatever other worthless company was fashionable that week. I told them that they were mad. But a month later they had doubled their money and they felt justified ignoring my warnings.

I remember one particularly smart guy telling me about his investment - unfortunately, I can't remember the company - "one more stock split and I will be able to buy a house for cash.". I tried to explain to him that if a company is worth €100m today and has 1m shares - splitting those shares in two does not change the value of the company. But of course, in practice, the mere rumour of a share split, was enough to increase the value of a share.

I remember another guy, a fellow Chartered Accountant, who dismissed my diversified portfolio in bricks and mortar companies as old fashioned. I was probably making 6% a year. He was doubling his money every few months.

Those of us who bothered challenging the dot.com believers faced real obstacles. During the bubble,they were far more successful than we were. And a few months later, they appeared to be justified by hanging in.

We are now in the exact same position with Bitcoin. It's a bubble. It has to burst. It may continue inflating for a while longer. We will continue to read of people who bought it at $10 and who are now millionaires. Those who are holding Bitcoin when the music stops will lose their entire investment in it.

It has no intrinsic value. Eventually, the market will appreciate that. But in the meantime those of us who challenge it will be told that we just don't understand it.
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This hasn't aged well. Are your views still the same Brendan? (Not bashing just interested in your opinion now).
 
I don't think anyone on either side of the debate has changed their minds so I don't see the point of rehashing old stuff. The price of bitcoin goes up and people come on saying 'look I was right and you were wrong'...The price of bitcoin coin goes down and people come on saying 'Look I was right and you were wrong'. The bitcoin story has a while to go yet before we know who is right or wrong. And the answer won't be driven by price. It will be driven by either Bitcoin is consigned to history or we are all going around spending bitcoin in Dunnes Stores.

Even though maybe I will bring the shorting of Tesla stock thread back to life.....
 
"It has no intrinsic value. Eventually, the market will appreciate that."

To be fair to the comments above, as history has shown us, it can take a long time before the sudden 'realisation' - could be a year or two, three, could be next month. No one can predict what the catalyst will be. I still can't understand why people are prepared to pay more and more for something that is only getting more expensive because people are willing to pay more and more. I can't see any intrinsic value in this investment either, and when people decide they are willing to pay less and less, it becomes worthless, or very close to it.
 
Sunny said:
I don't think anyone on either side of the debate has changed their minds so I don't see the point of rehashing old stuff. The price of bitcoin goes up and people come on saying 'look I was right and you were wrong'...The price of bitcoin coin goes down and people come on saying 'Look I was right and you were wrong'. The bitcoin story has a while to go yet before we know who is right or wrong. And the answer won't be driven by price. It will be driven by either Bitcoin is consigned to history or we are all going around spending bitcoin in Dunnes Stores.

Even though maybe I will bring the shorting of Tesla stock thread back to life.....
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Ah that old Tesla chestnut :)

I'm not rehashing, I just think the world has changed since original post and with Bitcoin at over 1Trillion market cap I was wondering if anyone here now sees it as a genuine store of value (which I do). With it's capped/limited supply and the US printing dollars like it's going out of fashion I believe Bitcoin definitely could or should be considered as a hedge considering it's 200% year on year growth since inception and of course the inflation we are seeing as a result of the above money printing etc.
 
Cardano93 said:
This hasn't aged well. Are your views still the same Brendan?
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Absolutely.

Bitcoin will go to zero. There is no doubt about that.

It has taken a lot longer than I thought. I never thought so many people could be so crazy for so long. But be quite clear. It will go to zero.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Absolutely.

Bitcoin will go to zero. There is no doubt about that.

It has taken a lot longer than I thought. I never thought so many people could be so crazy for so long. But be quite clear. It will go to zero.

Brendan
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Genuine question: what would it take for you to change your mind? Bitcoin staying non-zero for some particular period of time? Some specific type or level of institutional adoption? Something else?
 
That is like asking me what would it take for me to believe in Creationism and discard the theory of evolution.

Or what would it take for me to change my mind that 2 + 2 = 4.

I am open to new evidence changing my mind on some issues, but others such as Creationism which is probably believed by more people than those who believe in Bitcoin, but I am not changing my mind on Creationism or Bitcoin.

Brendan
 
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