Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

[Duke of Marmalade]

@Duke of Marmalade this quote from Wolfetone sums this thread up perfectly.

I am sure he will donate his profits to the poor of the world.

 

[WolfeTone]

I am sure he will donate his profits to the poor of the world.

Kind of. I invested most of it in eco-friendly projects in South Africa. Bringing cheap electricity via solar to businesses, schools, community projects.
I get a return of course, here is the kicker - I get paid in bitcoin!

 

[WolfeTone]

@Dublinbay12 I think what sums up this thread, and many of the other FUD threads, is @Duke of Marmalade plea to close it.

Just to recall, the thread opened on 30.12.2020 with bitcoin "hyperbolic bubble" at around $28,000.

If it is closed now, and despite the recent crash, it will close some 25% higher than the price at the OP.

 

[tecate]

I hold bitcoin, it has cost me nothing and is now worth a considerable sum.

Well I never. This is the alternative investments sub-forum where the topic at hand is bitcoin and its suitability or otherwise as an investment - and you have the nerve to present here having already taken a position in btc? That's just plain wrong Wolfie. I mean, how could we possibly discuss the actual topic now knowing that? You clearly have the advantage and we won't be able to debate you on the actual topic. When that falls apart, best to stand and point and mumble 'self interest' instead.

I've just discovered the very same issue with this grandmother. She owns 5 BTC - and clearly with that skin in the game (It probably doesn't represent 1% of her net worth but lets not dwell on that) she's leading people astray. Have a gander at what she's suggesting people do.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1409945835908079618

Outrageous advice from the Senator (and former Wyoming State Treasurer) who sits on the Banking Committee.

No, wrong again. I was interested in the concept of being able to avail of and take custody of private money.
That it has paid off in terms of increased value is my good fortune.

Well done on availing of the opportunity to choose - and having that conviction. Some wouldn't back their conviction with the price of a pint.

You are talking to someone who derided bitcoin from the first moment I heard about it. The 'holes', I assume you mean - Ponzi, criminals, energy usage, BOHA, China Crackdown, G7 crackdown, have all fallen by the wayside. Maybe you are talking about some other holes?

I fear you're right - there were other holes implicated with considerable self reflection and navel gazing for the individual concerned - relative to said hole.

Kind of. I invested most of it in eco-friendly projects in South Africa. Bringing cheap electricity via solar to businesses, schools, community projects.
I get a return of course, here is the kicker - I get paid in bitcoin!

That sounds progressive Wolfie (albeit wildly inconvenient as an answer!).

 

[DublinHead54]

Well I never. This is the alternative investments sub-forum where the topic at hand is bitcoin and its suitability or otherwise as an investment - and you have the nerve to present here having already taken a position in btc? That's just plain wrong Wolfie.

If you want to talk about it as an investment today, the fact Wolfie says he got it for free is an entirely relevant point as there is bias. Wolfie himself over the last few days has said the price will go down if adoption increases and voiced he isn't sure whether adoption will happen (see quotes below). What is surprising, is that after all his due diligence and discounting of potential issues with BTC (Ponzi, criminals, energy usage, BOHA, China Crackdown, G7 crackdown), he still has doubts about BTC.

Based on the below quotes, I don't see how @WolfeTone can still maintain that for a new market participant, investing in BTC today is a good idea. He/she has doubts about its adoption and thinks the price is going to decrease. So in my opinion, they have zero credibility in advocating for BTC to be invested in today.

I'm glad you are now slowly admitting that BTC is an alternative investment rather than a currency, I just hope you can come to see how dangerous it is for countries like EL Salvador to use as a means of legal tender when others are using it to earn a return.

I know you won't reply, its clear to all the readers here that you pick and choose arguments you can win and don't want to engage in any substantial debate.

On adoption (only a 10x increase from today)...

I'm not sure, it may never happen...I am just open to the possibility that it could occur.

On the issue of Large holders

It may limit its potential adoption but bitcoin, as you know, is divisible to 100million satoshi's. So there is potential for everyone on the planet - with a smartphone and internet connection - to acquire some.
I don't think we are anywhere near that occuring yet.

On price movement and adoption. He thinks over time the price is going to go down if Bitcoin is to be a success.

You get what you pay for. In my opinion, bitcoin will not survive long term without a significant increase in participation from the global population, driving up the price.
A significant increase in participation by the global population will occur when large holders of bitcoin dilute some of their holdings (over time) driving down the price.
It's a slow-burner, this has a long way to go.

Lastly,

My view, BTC as an alternative investment should be part of everyone's portfolio, but it should be a small part. The potential returns are diminished today from a year ago and will continue to diminish as price increases. By that I mean to get a 4x return today you need the price of a BTC to go to ~$140k, a year ago you needed it to go from $10k to $40k. For those of us lucky enough to have had skin in the game from the early days BTC has been an amazing investment offering 1,000+x returns. However, it remains a speculative investment, and no matter how many articles and videos @tecate posts and @WolfeTone cheerleading, it will remain a volatile risky asset for the significant future.

 

[WolfeTone]

@Dublinbay12 Your propensity to take views and opinions that are clearly conditional and suppostional and anoint them as some declarations of fact is tiresome.

In short, I have no idea what the future holds, what bitcoin price will be in a year, 10years etc. I can only make my own assumptions that it will grow, the scope for wider adoption is massive, that on turn may or may not increase its price - in my view it will.

You clearly see little upside to bitcoin price going above previous ATH, as you have openly expressed your sorrow for those who bought in higher than today's price.

I feel sorry for anybody reading this thread and buying BTC at $60k, $50k, $40k or whatever price

Yet you advocate that bitcoin should be part of everyone's portfolio.

BTC as an alternative investment should be part of everyone's portfolio,

How do you square this circle? Advocating for bitcoin to be part of everyones portfolio while simultaneously feeling sorry for anyone who buys bitcoin "at any price"?

 

[DublinHead54]

@Dublinbay12 Your propensity to take views and opinions that are clearly conditional and suppostional and anoint them as some declarations of fact is tiresome.

Woflie, can you explain this? I quoted you directly to support the point that you have no idea how the price will go, and based on that you aren't qualified to be advocating for investment in BTC today. You have even agreed with it in your latest response by saying "I have no idea what the future holds, what bitcoin price will be in a year, 10 years etc". So can you please explain how I have taken your opinion wrongly? If it is wrong, please enlighten me with your price prediction.

Unless you are saying that your entire opinion in this thread is based on conditionality? This totally erodes the integrity of your argument as it brings doubt to the forefront. I have seen this in the language you use over the last few days and when challenged you seem to think a suitable retort is that 'I didn't mean it that way'.

Regarding my other statements, it is rich you accuse me of misquoting and then do the very same thing. Those comments were in the context of people basing investment decisions on your advice of "I got it for free and it has earnt me money". When quite evidently you repeatedly state you have no idea of what the price will go like. In addition you chastised me for not quoting the full sentence and you go ahead and do the same thing and add in your own version! Laughable!

As you pointed out Bitcoin is divisible into Satoshis and it is your opinion that ownership of a satoshi has value at any point? I was hoping given that I said it should be a small part of a portfolio that was clear enough. How would you like me to explain portfolio theory for you?

 

[DublinHead54]

@Dublinbay12 Your propensity to take views and opinions that are clearly conditional and suppostional and anoint them as some declarations of fact is tiresome.

Another great summary of this thread......

We are unable to debate and challenge opinions because opinions are based on conditions....

"Bitcoin price may at go up, but I couldn't possibly tell you when or by how much I just know it will and that's my opinion"

"Bitcoin may be adopted at some point in the future"

"It's only starting now, just wait for the future"


I think I've been trolled by Wolfie very successfully. I'm going to create a new thread where we can actually discuss neutrally BTC as an investment opportunity today. I will perhaps extend it to Defi and other initiatives.

 

[WolfeTone]

So can you please explain how I have taken your opinion wrongly?

My opinion is that I believe bitcoin price will rise in the future, given the potential adoption/participation/acceptance of the broader global population relative to the amount of people who have adopted/participate/accept bitcoin today.
I'm open to possibility, that I may be wrong but I would advocate for anyone and everyone, like your yourself, to hold some bitcoin in their portfolio. Given its volatility, only small amounts.

Unlike yourself however I don't feel sorry for anyone who buys bitcoin "at any price".
Can you square that circle please?

 

[WolfeTone]

I'm going to create a new thread where we can actually discuss neutrally BTC as an investment opportunity today.

Great, you can tell us all how much bitcoin will be in six months, a year, 5yrs and 10yrs from now?

 

[WolfeTone]

Those comments were in the context of people basing investment decisions on your advice of "I got it for free and it has earnt me money".

Except of course that is not what I said.

When quite evidently you repeatedly state you have no idea of what the price will go like.

Neither do you. No more than any of us know what the price of oil will be in six months, 1yr, 5yrs etc..

We can make assumptions, we can make models or predictions, but none of us know for certain.
All we can do is determine for ourselves if we consider something has the potential, or not, to grow in value.
I certainly think bitcoin has massive upside potential. That is not to say I know for certain it will ever exploit that upside potential. I'm willing to risk a little in order to get a reward.

 

[tecate]

@Dublinbay12 Your propensity to take views and opinions that are clearly conditional and suppostional and anoint them as some declarations of fact is tiresome.

Except of course that is not what I said.

You're far too generous Wolfie. It's happened too many times to be anything other than a premeditated effort to misrepresent - sometimes to support a certain world view - and other times to try to goad someone into responding. Between this and moves to censor free discussion (if you don't agree with someone, all you have to say is "i disagree" and that's it. Trying to censor speaks volumes) - I've taken a different tack. This board has a wonderful 'ignore user' function. I've been using it in this specific case since January - and it works a tonic.
I've been made aware of attempts to draw me into conflict (not discussion) through posting untruths re. my views on this subject area (akin to what you refer to above). Someone can provoke all day long (and we'll have that after this post too - but I couldn't care less - not that those postings are visible to me) - bottom line for me is that when someone seeks to prevent free speech and goes on as per the above, there's no longer a discussion being had.

 

[DublinHead54]

Unlike yourself however I don't feel sorry for anyone who buys bitcoin "at any price".
Can you square that circle please?

To clarify, I did not say I felt sorry for anyone who bought Bitcoin at any price, can you please set that record straight?

My comment was intended in context of the discussion, on why you believed Bitcoin to be a good investment. Your response was that you got Bitcoin for free.

So to be very specific on what was meant, I feel sorry for people who bought BTC at current high prices ($30k to $60k) observed over the last few months based on the advocation for Bitcoin that you and others have posted on this forum. I hope this clears the matter up for you sufficiently?

You have a habit of agreeing with my points after I have made them, so I am glad you agree with my opinion that BTC should form part of an individuals portfolio. What you didn't notice or chose to miss is that I made no comment on what the entry point is or how people should get that exposure.

 

[DublinHead54]

Great, you can tell us all how much bitcoin will be in six months, a year, 5yrs and 10yrs from now?

Woah....Is that really your level of understanding? Just woah.

Maybe I'll just take a leaf out of your book "Prices will go up but if they don't go up they will go down, don't ask me how, but they will go up. Don't ask me when this will happen, but it will happen at some point in the future, but if it doesn't it thats ok."

That should cover me for all future debate.

 

[DublinHead54]

This shows the level of maturity on this forum. Tecate could not entertain any legitimate criticism of Bitcoin by a fellow Bitcoin community member. So he resorted to personal attacks to try and discredit when the allegations were shown to be factually inaccurate. He chose to continue with the attacks and his thread got closed by the admins. He must still harbour some ill feelings given how easy it is for him to dig up old threads.

Feel free to chose to ignore, but that just further highlights the unwillingness to entertain a fruitful discussion on the topic of Bitcoin.

Even when I suggest a new topic @WolfeTone begins mocking and @tecate continues his attacks.

I am at a fundamental loss of how anyone interested in Bitcoin and been around the technology long enough can be so dictatorial in their views. In this forum from the start Tecate and now Wolfetone bucket people who criticise as naysayers spreading FUD.

In 55 pages, there is very very little information of use to anyone trying to understand this technology.

 

[DublinHead54]

Uh Oh....

 

[WolfeTone]

To clarify, I did not say I felt sorry for anyone who bought Bitcoin at any price, can you please set that record straight?

Sure no problem, here is what you actually said lest anyone think I was trying deliberately to distort your comments

I feel sorry for anybody reading this thread and buying BTC at $60k, $50k, $40k or whatever price

My comment was intended in context of the discussion, on why you believed Bitcoin to be a good investment. Your response was that you got Bitcoin for free.

That was not my response. I did not get bitcoin for free. Can you please set that record straight?
My bitcoin holding $ cost average is zero. Its monetary value is not insignifcant.

So to be very specific on what was meant, I feel sorry for people who bought BTC at current high prices ($30k to $60k) observed over the last few months based on the advocation for Bitcoin that you and others have posted on this forum.

Ok, so clearly you do not advocate acquiring bitcoin above $30k.

What you didn't notice or chose to miss is that I made no comment on what the entry point is or how people should get that exposure.

Yes, I think you were going to open another thread and enlighten us all to your investment advice to bitcoin?

 

[DublinHead54]

Sure no problem, here is what you actually said lest anyone think I was trying deliberately to distort your comments

You got me. In hindsight I should not have said 'whatever' price, it was not correct in the context of my response. I apologize.


You said "it has cost me nothing", I assumed you meant that you had mined Bitcoin, there is no record to set straight. You have had to put $ into an exchange to purchase BTC, no? Those BTC are now worth more than you paid for, and you cashed out your initial stake?

You surely can see how your first quote is misleading? You felt the need to provide the secondary clarity that you have achieved $0 cost average.

I hold bitcoin, it has cost me nothing and is now worth a considerable sum.

That was not my response. I did not get bitcoin for free. Can you please set that record straight?
My bitcoin holding $ cost average is zero. Its monetary value is not insignifcant.

 

[DublinHead54]

Yes, I think you were going to open another thread and enlighten us all to your investment advice to bitcoin?

I am working on it, but I am not giving advice, just presenting information for those to make their own decisions. It is pretty hard to determine a stance from reading this thread.

You yourself who has been one of the fiercest proponents for BTC admitted you don't know what will happen to the price or if adoption will happen.

Maybe you'll read it, maybe you'll learn something, but do participate and provide topic suggestions.

 

[WolfeTone]

@Dublinbay12 I appreciate your efforts on your new thread to introduce a neutral discussion on btc as an investment option.
I am however somewhat reluctant to accept your invite to critique and provide feedback on that that thread given its neutral stance. Instead I will offer some feedback here in case such feedback descend into a blood and guts affair - nobody will notice any difference in these pages and your new thread shall remain pristine.

Personally speaking, it comes across like a ground zero moment. A "let's start all over again with the condition that I will dictate the terms of the discussion and should I perceive that anyone has stepped out of those terms then I can call them out as being wrong" moment.

Now I accept my perception may be off the mark, or not agreeable with you, but it is my critique and my feedback as you requested.

As far as investing/speculating etc in bitcoin I will offer you a brief summary of my affairs with bitcoin over the last couple of years, all of which is recorded somewhere in the pages of AAM.

I first bought btc at around $2500 in 2017 purely as a speculative punt. Its price went to $20k. It crashed, and as it did so I bailed out 80% of my holding at around $10k price mark.
I subsequently started to buy btc again at around $3,500 (having given it more consideration other than a speculative asset). Further to that, as part of the taunting rituals in these discussions, I challenged anyone to short bitcoin at around the $10k mark last year, its price subsequently going 'hyperbolic'.
My own modeling for bitcoin price reckoned, last November, that

I value it at $34,500 per coin

when it's market price was roughly half that.
You may want to take a look out your window today and check what price it is today?

Of course I am no seer nor proclaim to be, just a small time independent investor who determines his own decisions on his own modeling. For example, I didn't forsee the Musk intervention and the subsequent drive to $60K. The price being way over what my own prediction was I tended to agree that it had overshot itself and I duly cash in some more @ $54k.
The price as you can see has reverted back to around my previously stated position of around $34k.

Now I appreciate you are willing to disperse some nuggets of wisdom that helps with investment decisions and perhaps you may enlighten me to where it is that I am going wrong?