Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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Why would the Chinese government be interested in carrying out a 51% attack when they can just shut the miners down lol?

It is pretty clear to anybody that follows the market, China's interference was never ever about mounting a 51% attack. Do you have evidence suggesting the opposite? So you are basically trying to argue that the sky isn't blue.

I guess you've no interest in discussing the impact, but good to see you've hedged your bets for future by saying it'll cause network distruption without offering anything else up.
 
WolfeTone said:
The discussion about a 51% attack was introduced way back in thread.
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tecate said:
Asking miners to leave a territory is not an attack on the network. A 51% attack would involve much more than asking miners to leave a territory within a timeframe.
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Dublinbay12 said:
Why would the Chinese government be interested in carrying out a 51% attack when they can just shut the miners down lol?
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I've no idea, lol!

Dublinbay12 said:
It is pretty clear to anybody that follows the market, China's interference was never ever about mounting a 51% attack.
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Yes, that is what is being said to you. Perhaps you can elaborate and explain what China's interference is about?

Dublinbay12 said:
So you are basically trying to argue that the sky isn't blue.
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Well, technically speaking it isn't.... lol! Let's no go there!
Dublinbay12 said:
I guess you've no interest in discussing the impact
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I am interested in discussing the impact. I'm interested in learning what is the impact.
As @Duke of Marmalade points out, it is probably a positive for bitcoin.
 

As did I.......
Dublinbay12 said:
For other readers of this thread, I actually think the China crackdown is good as it decreases centralization of mining and reduces the chance of a 51% attack which is bringing the network back towards the original plan.
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WolfeTone said:
Yes, that is what is being said to you. Perhaps you can elaborate and explain what China's interference is about?
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Think about this Wolfie. If it was never about an attack, then why was it being dredged up as a criticism of btc repeatedly? So apparently then it was about a ban rather than an attack? Well, the ban is being implemented right now and nobody seems to think that this is a bad thing!

Ergo, all of this criticism was Fear / Uncertainty / Doubt -> FUD.
 
There is one very unlikely scenario where a fall in the hashrate could be fatal. The hashrate has fallen by 50% they say. The 10 minutes is maintained by halving the difficulty. No problem. And this can continue almost ad infinitum as the difficulty level is currently over 10trillion times its starting level.
But if the hashrate fell so suddenly that the protocol had not yet recalculated the difficulty then until that new difficulty is reset the average time to solve the hash puzzle would increase. So whilst a 1,000 fold reduction in hashrate is easily accomodated if it happens over a reasonable time period, if it happened all at once it would take 10,000 minutes (1 week) to add the next block Just a theoretical musing dear cultists, it is as likely to happen as everybody winning the lottery next week.
 
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Ok so any reporting that dares criticise or present a negative opinion is FUD? What a load of rubbish. If that were true then it seems some people on here have authoritarian views when it comes to bitcoin. It's such a weak defence to just call a news story FUD, especially when said reporting comes from respected crypto news outlets.

I guess I should just come to this forum for the truth*.


*Truth according to Tecate
 
You are dealing with a cult. Imagine you are discussing the meaning of life with, say, Muslims, you are on eggshells when the subject of the Prophet comes up. I have spent a long time in these parts mocking the cult until it suddenly dawned on me, I am effectively insulting these guys' religion, something which we all accept is quite non PC.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
You are dealing with a cult.
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And the 'cult' labeling is being applied to a group of people who's ideas you are ideologically opposed to. So a difference of ideas is being debated but the establishment set decide to label the upstarts with the 'cult' tar and feathering. Tell me, Marmalady, what gives your ideas on the subject a free pass whilst those you oppose get the 'cult' tar and feathering?
I mean, people can decide to 'mock', to label & tar and feather, to be all about demonstrating how 'wrong' someone is/was - OR - we could just stick to the nuts and bolts of the subject area and consider it.
 
WolfeTone said:
Yes, I think it started at a point when bitcoin was less than a $1,000?....it's been a blast!
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Actually, I stand to be ejected here, I think it started in late 2018 when it soared to $20k. It has grown 50% since then but relative to its volatility that is not actually a good Sharpe Ratio. Admittedly I would have been predicting something closer to -100%
 
That's inaccurate, Marmalady. You first stated on 13 Feb 2015 that Bitcoin was 'a load of baloney'. The price on that day was $230/bitcoin. Between then and now, we've seen a price increase of 13,421% ( or 27,726% by comparison with the ATH price from earlier this year). Nouriel has outdone you though - he's been criticising the hell out of bitcoin since it was at $13.
Over its 12 years, bitcoin has averaged a 213% increase per annum. The charge that bitcoin has a poor Sharpe Ratio is inaccurate.
 
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Ok. I'm ejected, though my serious engagement did begin in late 2018.
I am certainly not claiming that there is any price at which I would have been singing a different tune. It would always have been BOHA to me.
 
The rhetoric on this thread is that Bitcoin is going on a journey of adoption. As such there have been claims that volatility is expected as part of the adoption cycle and it will reduce over time as the asset matures.

What's evident in the last 3 months that BTC is as volatile as ever despite the network growth. Examples being PayPal adoption, Coinbase IPO, Tesla, El Salvador to name a few. These are examples that have been posted by those on this forum as evidence of Bitcoins growth, legitimacy and adoption. However, volatility remains high.

I've seen the argument presented that it took hundreds of years for gold to become stable. But today is a different world. We live in a connected global economy where technology adoption is rapid. For example, it took less than a decade for Smartphones to become dominant. So I'm not sure the 'it takes time' argument holds much weight. Now BTC adoption is difficult given its in competition against governments, but the will of the people is powerful.

But I'd like to hear from @WolfeTone on his views on what will need to happen for BTC to become less volatile?
 
Dublinbay12 said:
The rhetoric on this thread
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Is also about the Chinese crackdown on bitcoin mining and how, in the end, we all agreed it was most likely a positive for bitcoin.

Dublinbay12 said:
What's evident in the last 3 months that BTC is as volatile as ever despite the network growth.
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And I would suggest it will remain so for sometime. Bitcoin, in the grand scheme of global finance and money is tiny.

Dublinbay12 said:
For example, it took less than a decade for Smartphones to become dominant.
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Smartphones operate on a massive infrastructure that is financed, regulated and co-ordinated by private tech companies and telecommunications regulators employing tens of thousands of people in roll-out, support and maintenance etc.
Bitcoin is an 8 page posting on a fringe tech site.
There is simply no comparison.

Dublinbay12 said:
But I'd like to hear from @WolfeTone on his views on what will need to happen for BTC to become less volatile?
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Much more wider adoption. Cannot say definitively, but a ten-fold increase in adoption seems like a good starting point.
 
tecate said:
Don't fret Marmalady, it's the weekend so here's a gift from the other side of the pond.

View attachment 5663
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Agreed, the Central Banks have told us as much. They aim to reduce its value by 2% p.a. which eventually will be as close to zero as makes no difference. So long as it can reasonably be trusted to buy a Big Mac at near enough current prices for the next year or so, that is all that is required of a medium of exchange.

Crypto will quickly go to its intrinsic value - zero
Duke of Marmalade, 21st Century
 

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WolfeTone said:
Much more wider adoption. Cannot say definitively, but a ten-fold increase in adoption seems like a good starting point.
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What does much wider adoption translate into? 10 more countries accepting it as legal tender?

In your opinion does it need more adoption to become less volatile? If BTC is tiny in terms of Global finance, do you not think that limits its potential for adoption? What do you think will change to lead to 10x adoption?
 
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