Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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@dukey : So I asked you how it could have been designed so that it doesn't have to go through a transitory phase of high volatility and you have no suggestion. Understood.
 
@tecate How was Bitcoin designed to ensure that the phase of high volatility is only transitory? If it was designed to be transitory, can you let us know when the volatility will end?
 

Wether you agree or disagree with Fareed’s position (I of course echoed these thoughts weeks ago & agree) - this idea making it to the top of Fareed Zakira & GPS’s show opening is an indicator that this position is now the consensus position in the United States….needless to say Fareed mirrors and is watched by the Washington, DC political liberal elite……who are in case you havent noticed back in control of the White House and Congress.

This is bearish for Bitcoin, very bearish. The USA establishment is coming after this space with all its tools IRS, SEC, DOJ & FED. We’ll see what the underlying demand is once the speculators and criminals are driven out of the BTC sinking ship in the coming months.
 
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letitroll said:
We’ll see what the underlying demand is once the speculators and criminals are driven out of the BTC sinking ship in the coming months.
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Im not sure why you consider speculators are to be 'driven out'?

As for criminals, if they are to be driven out then I would expect the price of Bitcoin to soar. The association of bitcoin with criminal activity is, I suspect, one reason for those unsure about it not to engage with it. Remove that association and more people will become more comfortable with it.
 
The piece that you're referring to provides evidence as to why they're unlikely to do a full court press re. crypto. Did it escape your attention that they recovered a substantial chunk of the $? That only became possible due to the nature of bitcoin's public blockchain. It's a dream for law enforcement.
Like you, Fareed claims that bitcoin brings nothing. It's the same tired old story - start with that wayward premise and work back to arrive at further wayward conclusions.
The US got the upper hand on everyone in the last wave of innovation. They're not going to lose out this time round either. This isn't just about bitcoin but decentralised crypto in general. Start banning the hell out of it and all that innovation will take off somewhere else. Is there further regulation coming? Of course there is. Will they try and strangle it? I don't believe they will. Following Wyoming's lead, last week Texas became the latest state to provide clarification re. crypto - to facilitate State banks in custodying it. In New York an anti-crypto mining ban bill died a death when the Electrical Workers Union called bs on the misguided premise of the bill. An update to the bitcoin protocol (taproot) was locked-in this past weekend - meaning greater privacy for lightning network transactions and greater ability to build smart contracts on top of the bitcoin network.
As regards the bearish warning - over the longer term I remain more bullish than ever. There may possibly be temporary setbacks but when you zoom out, whats evident is that year on year bitcoin continues to progress.
 
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tecate said:
That only became possible due to the nature of bitcoin's public blockchain. It's a dream for law enforcement.
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That's my sentiment also. @letitroll likes to portray bitcoin price as some consequence that is predominantly generated by criminality.
The main purpose of criminality is to enrich oneself with $$ not bitcoin.

So non criminal holders of bitcoin like myself, tracing my crypto activity is child's play. Money transfers from my bank account to a crypto exchange. This transfer is date times and stamped. If six months later another transfer occurs, this time from the exchange to my bank account it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out what just happened.

As to how criminals circumvent this tracing of cashing out bitcoin for cash I do not know. I suspect most people don't know either, which belies @letitroll notion that bitcoin price is predominantly driven by criminal activity.
 
It doesn’t matter what you or i think. Hell it doesn’t if matter what’s true or not. What matters is what the people in power think/do and what they think is what Fareed is articulating. Ultra bearish for BTC in short to medium term.
 
letitroll said:
It doesn’t matter what you or i think. Hell it doesn’t if matter what’s true or not. What matters is what the people in power think/do and what they think is what Fareed is articulating. Ultra bearish for BTC in short to medium term.
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There's a certain logic to that i.e. it doesn't matter what you or I think. I'll give you that.

However, let me just say something about the 'main stream media' that Fareed is very much a part of. I hated everything about the yanks previous administration yet I hate to admit that they were right to call out the main stream media (even if what they called them out on specifically a lot of the time were the wrong things). Today we had a bitcoin 'opinion' piece in the NYT from some clown from Cornell who trotted out what you trotted out the other week i.e. bitcoin transactions cost too much and they're too slow. You had an excuse - in that you got your information from clowns like him. He knows better - and didn't even mention lightning network. The Economist did exactly the same thing a couple of days beforehand. Then we had the BBC last week seek comment from someone who's representative of a bitcoin clone project rather than bitcoin core. Whilst they edited their article once the pressure came on them, it's not good enough from sources that we've all been led to believe for donkeys years to be authoritative. All this to say that sure these still are authoritative - but their influence is going one direction and one direction only. Among a younger demographic, they don't rate them - not in any way, shape or form. All that to say - that I couldn't give a toss about Fareed's view. I feel sorry for anyone who doesn't know any better and is hoodwinked into consuming their content unquestioningly.

Now getting to the powers that be. First off, the SEC set out their program for the rest of the year today and bitcoin/crypto doesn't feature - so there's that. Granted, multiple agencies are implicated so it doesn't mean that there still can't be something but it won't come from the SEC. There are plenty of things that a government can do - but it's another thing entirely as regards whether it makes any sense. That brings us all the way back to the same discussion. You don't think there's anything in this and I believe the complete opposite.
Back in 1991, the law had to be changed in the US to actually make it legal for people to use/access the internet. Imagine if they didn't change that? They won't be able to neuter bitcoin without neutering all decentralised crypto - and when they do that, those innovators - who are more mobile now than ever before - will simply up sticks and leave the US - simple as that. There's no way they will pull the trigger. I think the Europeans are culturally more likely to want to do that - but it must be playing on their minds how Europe fared vs. the US in the last innovative wave.

So getting right back to where we started, of course it doesn't matter what we think in terms of how things play out. However, we have differing interpretations of what's likely to happen. Yours is an extremely bearish view re. bitcoin. Mine is a guarded bullish view (guarded in that we may have some setbacks - but I still believe that it will continue to develop over the longer haul). Opinions are two a penny - but I guess we'll get to find out soon enough.

On another note, you've joined this discussion more recently but one of the key moments in 2020 relative to bitcoin was Paul Tudor Jones' investors letter - where he set out the case to take a small position in bitcoin. Earlier today, he set out the rationale as to why he's now moved from a 1% position to 5%.
stating:

"Bitcoin is math. And math has been around for thousands of years. Two plus two is going to equal four and it will for the next 2,000 years. I like the idea of investing in something that’s reliable, consistent, honest, and a hundred percent certain.”
 
Paul Tudor Jones is not the President of the United States, Fed Chair, SEC Chairman or sits on the congressional committees for banking & finance. I’m not interested, even remotely, in what he says/does or thinks about bitcoin.
 
letitroll said:
It doesn’t matter what you or i think.
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Well it does, otherwise why are we here at all?

letitroll said:
What matters is what some of the people in power think/do and what some of them think is what Fareed is articulating.
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Corrected that for you.
At the moment, most of those articulating Fareeds views is broadly based on assumption, indicative reports, etc. There is plenty others to counter these views.

The criminality FUD will be countered by measures to make bitcoin transactions from and into $$ more transparent. I don't see anything wrong with this, I welcome it. I will provide more assurance to the public at large who otherwise may be inclined to stay away from bitcoin.

As El Salvador is showing, the energy FUD can be countered by tapping into the vast untapped clean renewable energy resources of the planet.


letitroll said:
Ultra bearish for BTC in short to medium term.
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I am bearish about bitcoin for the short term. I recognise alot of the hyperbole is just that, I recognise that there will be concerted efforts to 'crush' bitcoin. Ultimately I think they will fail once the FUD dissipates, again.

Speaking of being bearish in short to medium term, I would have thought that is a somewhat different outlook to 'crush' bitcoin?
Have you changed your view already?
 
letitroll said:
Paul Tudor Jones is not the President of the United States, Fed Chair, SEC Chairman or sits on the congressional committees for banking & finance. I’m not interested, even remotely, in what he says/does or thinks about bitcoin.
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You may not be interested but I would hazard a guess that the President of the US, Fed Chair, SEC Chairperson, congressional committees are certainly interested in what he, and other wealthy investors, entrepreneurs, tech innovators etc have to say.
 
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What a loada baloney.
Bitcoin is math - yeah, it solves very complex mathematical equations, we know the hype.
"Reliable, consistent and 100% certain" I nearly spilt my latte. The guy must mean something - I suppose he is referring to the blockchain as a physical entity. If someone asks me should they buy bitcoin they are not asking me about its qualities as a technology. They are asking about it virtues as an investment/asset. I trust that even @tecate and @WolfeTone would not describe it as "reliable, consistent and 100% certain".
I forgot "honest". Seriously. Bitcoin now has human virtues, why not throw in "loving and caring".
PTJ holds 5% of his assets in bitcoin. Does he, has anybody, cautioned the poor people of El Sal to hold no more than 5% of their assets in bitcoin?

@WolfeTone you seem pretty convinced that criminals would want to offload their btc for US$ asap, and I agree with you, tells a story doesn't it? Interesting that Bukele seems to be encouraging his poor people to go the other way and get outa US$ into btc.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
you seem pretty convinced that criminals would want to offload their btc for US$ asap, and I agree with you, tells a story doesn't it?
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It tells a story for sure, whether it's the same story that we share I doubt it.
I'm of the view that the higher demand for bitcoin, the higher the price. @letitroll wants to tell us all that bitcoin is predominantly criminal enterprising. Simultaneously, with bitcoin having no use (other than criminal enterprise) the logic, as you seem to agree, is that bitcoin price is pushed downward as criminals offload into $$.
Bitcoin price from zero to $35,000 makes little sense if it is predominantly criminals acquiring it and offloading it into $$.
That's is just a simple mathematical observation.
Another simple mathematical observation is what PTJ referenced.
2+2= 4. Always has done, always will. Its not complicated math, but it is certain.

Some more simple maths. I wonder if the cyber criminals ever figured that demanding 60,000 BTC @ $1 was the same as demanding 1BTC @ $60,000?
 
@WolfeTone I think that criminal activity and the recent high profile ransomware explosion has given btc some credibility. You seem to think the opposite that it sullies the reputation of the poor "honest" crypto. Bank robbers never had that effect on fiat.
But I agree with you that its criminal utility is a very small part of its $40k price, the rapid turnaround into something the criminals can spend would suggest an almost neutral contribution.
The price, and utility for that matter, of btc is these days almost entirely as a speculative vehicle with the likes of El Musk holding a very strong hand in the casino.
Do you agree with PTJ that bitcoin as an investment (he is an investor) should be regarded as reliable, consistent, honest, and a hundred percent certain? If yes I would be interested in you citing me examples of its honesty, for example.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Do you agree with PTJ that bitcoin as an investment (he is an investor) should be regarded as reliable, consistent, honest, and a hundred percent certain? If yes I would be interested in you citing me examples of its honesty, for example.
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What he is referring to its structure, trustless, 21million coins, etc....While theoretically the rules can change, in practice it is of such extreme remoteness that it will unlikely ever occur.
He cleverly avoids giving price speculations, rather suggests 5% of his portfolio to bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar. It is pointless making price predictions because nobody knows what the price of Bitcoin will be this time next year anymore than they know what the price of their house or their stock portfolio will be.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Bitcoin is math - yeah, it solves very complex mathematical equations, we know the hype.
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Your claim of 'hype' has been outed. The 'complex mathematical equation' phrase doesn't originate from those involved with bitcoin. Secondly, it appears that only those who engage in mathematical snobbery would be bothered - right Duke? The equations are not the point - they're a means to an end.

Duke of Marmalade said:
"Reliable, consistent and 100% certain"
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I'm pretty sure you know this already but he's referring to bitcoin's pre-programmed monetary policy - that isn't subject to tampering as opposed to central bank monetary policy - that's at the whims of your central bank high priests.


Tudor Jones isn't asking you for your assessment of bitcoin's virtues as an investment asset. Whilst describing himself as extremely risk averse, he's made that assessment without your input. Clearly, he's referring to bitcoin's consistent monetary policy that isn't going to be tampered with. He's suggesting we can't make the same assumption with fiat money.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Interesting that Bukele seems to be encouraging his poor people to go the other way and get outa US$ into btc.
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Except that he's not doing any such thing. He's offering his people - 70% of whom have been locked out of the banking system that you've told us over the past four years is the best thing since sliced pan - the choice of using it should they have a need to do so. He's also encouraging inward investment by offering that choice. Nothing more than that.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Do you agree with PTJ that bitcoin as an investment (he is an investor) should be regarded as reliable, consistent, honest, and a hundred percent certain? If yes I would be interested in you citing me examples of its honesty, for example.
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As bitcoin is a protocol, your question defies logic. However, what I can do is provide you with examples of dishonesty relative to central banking. In the lead up to the 2008 financial crisis, we had the Fed's Ben Bernanke and the Treasury Secretary lying about containment of the problem - knowing all the while that wasn't going to be the case. That's one example. But Tudor Jones has been considering inflation risk.

"The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of the elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy." – Ludwig von Mises

Bitcoin's monetary policy is transparent and baked in. All participants/stakeholders know from the outset what it is. That's what Tudor Jones is referring to when he talks about bitcoin being math and being reliable/consistent/honest/100% certain. The same can't be said of your central bank high priests.
 
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letitroll said:
I’m not interested, even remotely, in what he says/does or thinks about bitcoin.
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That was silly of me. Clearly you form your views based on state sources. I shouldn't have contaminated your thinking with the views of PTJ. My bad. I'll let you get back to those state-sponsored sources 'informing' your opinion.
 
tecate said:
Except that he's not doing any such thing.
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That's exactly what I thought. How could a piece of math be "honest". @tecate it shows that you are not true cultist to have similar doubts, you're not like PTJ.
PTJ is insistent that his reason for investing in btc is that it is math, with all the qualities of math. But that doesn't explain why he thinks its market cap is greater than the 2,000 kopykats and offspring together some of which are possibly even better at math.
He obviously places great store on bitcoin's honesty virtue and as I suspect other virtues like loving and caring, which he presumably thinks are missing from the kopykats.
Those are the jokes, but seriously I never heard such pompous, pretentious, portentous piddle than that quote from PTJ.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
That's exactly what I thought.
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As you well know, the comment I made relates to your wayward claim that Bukele is trying to move El Salvador out of the USD. He's confirmed that he's not doing that.


Duke of Marmalade said:
How could a piece of math be "honest".
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When it's programmed-in and hard wired in to a digital currency and can't be tampered with.

Duke of Marmalade said:
@tecate it shows that you are not true cultist to have similar doubts
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What doubts have I expressed your dukeness?



I believe you read his last year - which provides his complete thesis on BTC. The fact that bitcoin can't be tampered and tinkered with is central to most people's rationale for taking an interest in it. It's not his complete reasoning - but clearly, its a major component.
As regards other cryptos, you've been told many times - over the course of four years - go and launch your own crypto then - if its so easy. By that logic, you could also launch facedukebook - seeing as all you have to do is copy it.

Duke of Marmalade said:
Those are the jokes, but seriously I never heard such pompous, pretentious, portentous piddle than that quote from PTJ.
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'Pugnacious' you were probably searching for (if it's a consideration of your good self in trying to find some sort of angle on this).
 
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