Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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Ok Wolfie you have called a truce in the bunfight with that reasoned post.
I mean it when I say that if bitcoin had intrinsic value I would probably have most of what I currently have in savings certs and prize bonds in bitcoin.* My central objection is Roubinist and Nobelist - bitcoin is not a currency.
As a thought experiment what if it was a valid alternative currency? I think it would be a serious impediment to mainstream monetary policy and in the (perceived) interests of society the authorities would be forced to act.
Possibly we are getting to the stage where there is enough "adoption" to make it act as a currency at least for its network. Maybe that should be a concern but I don't think it is nearly so far along that road as to threaten mainstream monetary policy.
The issue of criminal utility is a separate one which I am trying to stay out of it as it only gives @tecate the excuse to accuse me of persecuting the cult.

* Reflecting more on that, I wonder what intrinsic value I would trust. I don't have any gold investments. I suppose I have in mind something that is guaranteed to keep pace with general inflation and yet again I am not invested in inflation linked bonds.
 
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bitcoin is not a currency.

It's neither a 'coin', but we are now back into the world of metaphors. I personally think Roubini is too hung up on this.
I think the adoption of terminology such as 'digital gold' is reflective of how Bitcoin has morphed (-ing) into something that was probably never envisaged. I don't think the word 'gold' is mentioned in satoshis whitepaper?

As a thought experiment what if it was a valid alternative currency? I think it would be a serious impediment to mainstream monetary policy and in the (perceived) interests of society the authorities would be forced to act.

I referred to this before. In a sound monetary system, bitcoin has little chance of ever being a valid alternative currency.

Bitcoin is a creature of an unsound monetary system, or the what some people perceive as an unsound monetary system.
I have some cash balances, losing 2% a year. Maybe a little more with bank charges and stamp duty etc.
But I limit cash balances and excesses can be used bitcoin or if Im endeared to a particular stock.
With the exception of a very short period of time in bitcoin’s life cycle, namely the period from Feb 2021 to today, anyone who has bought any bitcoin, at any other time since it was first available has seen a positive return, or would have a positive return if they didn't sell it since.
And when you step outside the hyperbole of ransomware, laser-eyes, FUD, boiling oceans, etc, that is an impressive stat for something that is not a corporation and not a central authority.
 
@WolfeTone
I am addressing you here as @tecate is in pure denial mode. This is what his latest bitcoin evangelist actually said.

The interviewer sums up this theory by observing that “reproduction is important”.
I kid you not Wolfie.
I ask @tecate does he agree with this Darwinian theory, and he calls me Goebbels/Chemical Ali. Sure sign he is squirming.
I've sent on a link to your last few posts to @FoxNews - I'd expect you should hear from one of their recruiters imminently. You reckon that you've quoted Stevens yet why have you run one sentence into another - skipping the two sentences in between - and trying to remove context and in so doing misrepresent Stevens and with that, trying to discredit him? I wonder why you feel you need to go to those lengths....

Whatever it is, I guess it must be for the same reason you insist on the prejudicial and inflammatory descriptives i.e. 'hero', 'guru', 'evangelist' and 'prophet'. Alongside a whole host of other stakeholders in the sector, he's worth hearing out. That's where it ends.

There were a number of points where I agreed with the prophet.
Bitcoin is worthless of itself, its only value is as a medium of future exchange
Central bankers are well intentioned.
@FoxNews - when you read this, you should know that you have a standout prospect here. Look at the ease with which he takes these items out of context - seamlessly. Lets go through them.
Bitcoin is worthless of itself he says -> Stevens said that ANY medium of exchange is worthless of itself - that they're all just a means through which we buy the goods and services we want in life.
Central bankers are well intentioned -> but of course Dukey takes the statement out of context. The word 'but' came next - and following the 'but' was Stevens' view that Central Bankers are getting it wrong.
In summary, @FoxNews, it remains to be seen if the Duke has the same 'face for television' as Tucker Carlson but on the basis of the above, just imagine what he can do with an Alexandria Occasia-Cortez speech.
 
Central bankers are well intentioned -> but of course Dukey takes the statement out of context.
What a brass neck? Do you remember shouting from the rooftops that Professor Roubini had used the term "store of value". That was seriously out of context.
My reference to Stevens view of central bankers highlights a big rift in the cult between those (like yourself) who think that central bankers are the anti christ and those who in "humility and empathy" understand that they simply can't help their upbringing.
 
Believe me if bitcoin was the mainstream currency of choice we would be in a far far worse condition.
I know you have deep-seated insecurities on this but nobody here is suggesting a complete swap out from fiat to bitcoin. What is being proposed is offering choice to people. You want to deny them that choice.

We have learnt that a fixed money supply is not fit for purpose (meeting the needs of technology driven superfast growing economies) j
It's interesting that you cite the notion of 'meeting the needs of technology-driven superfast growing economies'. Technology is driving us towards a deflationary future - and this Keynesian model of driving people into debt - driving them further into rampant consumerism and in the process destroying the planet - all to fuel the growth that this model demands - isn't going to be able to keep up with it.

If you believe that all those previous periods would have been ones of economic bliss, or even better than they were, if only we had a fixed money supply, well I can't prove you are wrong, but I profoundly believe that to be the case.
I don't know enough about it - it's something I want to put some time into learning more about. Bitcoin gets criticised in terms of being deflationary - whilst looking back at the experience of the gold standard. I don't know if it's as simple as that - as bitcoin brings something else to the table with a programmatic monetary system that everyone knows from the outset and nobody can mess with. Otherwise, as I pointed out above, we are heading towards a changing environment - a deflationary environment over the longer run due to tech moving forward at pace. My understanding is that this keynesian driven fiat approach isn't going to be able to overcome that - and so, we will have to find a way of adjusting to a deflationary environment anyway.
As a thought experiment what if it was a valid alternative currency? I think it would be a serious impediment to mainstream monetary policy and in the (perceived) interests of society the authorities would be forced to act.
The greatest threat to bitcoin is competently managed fiat currencies. If they're run flawlessly, then there's a much lesser case for bitcoin. If bitcoin is adopted to a point where it limits the ability of that country's CB to implement monetary policy, it means that they have screwed up royally and failed that country's citizens. If they're concerned about that eventuality, it's totally in their hands. Don't mismanage and it won't be an issue.

Duke of Marmalade said:
I don't think it is nearly so far along that road as to threaten mainstream monetary policy.
I agree - albeit with the understanding that this isn't an objective as far as the vast majority of crypto proponents are concerned. In fact, I can't for the life of me understand how anyone couldn't see this as a force for good. Imagine if you're a dictator or wayward regime in the developing world. If bitcoin has gotten to a point where its understood by people and its easier to use, you know that if you screw up with the sovereign currency through mismanagement - you're going to lose total control. It has the potential to offer people an alternative if the incumbent is being mismanaged. It provides an incentive for all of those regimes not to mismanage.

Duke of Marmalade said:
The issue of criminal utility is a separate one which I am trying to stay out of it as it only gives @tecate the excuse to accuse me of persecuting the cult.
The issue of criminality has been well and truly dealt with - ergo, there's no more criminality in bitcoin's use than there is with cash fiat or electronic fiat. The tar and feathering on that score is exactly that - tar and feathering. The same with the 'cult' references that you persist with - in an attempt to sully it....from the proponent of the '[broken link removed]' cult.

What a brass neck? Do you remember shouting from the rooftops that Professor Roubini had used the term "store of value". That was seriously out of context.
Apples and oranges your Dukeness. I recall it being discussed whilst all the while acknowledging that he was continuing with the bile and vitriole he reserves for bitcoin. It was an attempt to walk something back as he knows it's being established as a store of value despite his protests going back years already. Bitcoiners gave him hell for it - and so he returned to doubling and tripling down with the hate-filled anti-bitcoin outbursts.

On the plus side, it's at least something that you acknowledge that you purposefully took Stevens' comment out of context. A contrived allegation that I have done the same previously doesn't justify that.
My reference to Stevens view of central bankers highlights a big rift in the cult between those (like yourself) who think that central bankers are the anti christ

I don't believe that central bankers are the 'anti-christ'. I've never stated such a thing - over the course of 4 years of discussion here. What I have pointed to is in line with what Stevens mentions - i.e. that programmatic money is far preferable to the whims of 12 unelected officials in a central bank. Even when making genuine attempts at managing a currency (which I believe the vast majority certainly are), the outcomes aren't always in the interests of society. That's before we get to human flaws and the ability for individuals to totally mismanage. Time and time again, we have examples of sovereign currencies that have been mismanaged - with a list of current examples available in any given year.

Duke of Marmalade said:
and those who in "humility and empathy" understand that they simply can't help their upbringing.
If you're comparing Stevens' approach to the bile and vitriol that emanates from the nutty professor, I know exactly what you mean.
 
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@tecate I note from the tone of your last post that you have signed up to Wolfie's truce, at least until the next outbreak of hostilities. I note your points and I think at this stage we both know exactly where we are coming from.
I generally enjoy and learn from your many links but that last one I did find distasteful. It got off to a very bad start with the guy protesting his concern for the "poor man"; he just didn't look the part; and as for the interviewer, Chris Wallace he was not.
 
I think at this stage we both know exactly where we are coming from.
Agreed.
I generally enjoy and learn from your many links but that last one I did find distasteful. It got off to a very bad start with the guy protesting his concern for the "poor man"; he just didn't look the part; and as for the interviewer, Chris Wallace he was not.
It's not a probing interview - and from the very outset, they both acknowledge they're good buddies going back years. That doesn't mean to say that there isn't something to be learned from it. Is it biased/prejudiced? By virtue of the fact that its one persons opinion/view/experience, that's assumed in all cases. I wouldn't ever suggest anyone ever rely on any one opinion or even lots of various opinions without thinking critically for themselves.
I listen to podcasts/interviews from a whole host of people on an ongoing basis (including those on the other side of the fence eg. Roubini). This one - I referenced - as his comments on regulation (i.e. there's going to be a back and forth re. regulation and some of it is going to be aggressive) was poignant in terms of the discussion being had with @letitroll .
As regards the interview as a whole and what he mentions may be coming up in the future, he's in a better position than you or I to determine that. Could he be talking up his own book? Of course - and I'd default to being a natural cynic from that point of view as most do talk up their own book - either consciously or otherwise. However, they're dealing with the back end and infrastructural side. I'm not sure to what extent he needs to do that - or to what extent it would benefit him. Regardless, it's just one snapshot - that goes into the mix with a thousand others - and in jumbling through all of that, people make up their own minds.
 
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that you have signed up to Wolfie's truce,

Have to hand it to you Duke, you certainly know how to twist a tale in the direction you want :) (that's a backhanded compliment btw)

I listen to podcasts/interviews from a whole host of people

For @Duke of Marmalade I would recommend

What Bitcoin Did

Featuring none other than one of @Duke of Marmalade "people who know more than me and you", economist, and Christian, Frances Coppola and bitcoin maximalist Nic Carter.

People who know more

Frances, predicted earlier this year than bitcoin would collapse or cease by June this year following an unpleasant bout of trolling on social media for her criticisms of bitcoin.

Notwithstanding all of that, the discussion is civilised and reasonable and Frances is a very nice person. It features morality and religion, central banks and QE, scalability, rogue states, shadow banks, international settlements, etc...

Ordinarily I would advise to jump past the introductory plugs and ads but even at that, the plugs by the host give a glimpse into the technical development emerging in the crypto sector.

Give it 10-15mins, see if it of interest.
 
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Have to hand it to you Duke, you certainly know how to twist a tale in the direction you want :) (that's a backhanded compliment btw)



For @Duke of Marmalade I would recommend

What Bitcoin Did

Featuring none other than one of @Duke of Marmalade "people who know more than me and you", economist, and Christian, Frances Coppola and bitcoin maximalist Nic Carter.

People who know more

Frances, predicted earlier this year than bitcoin would collapse or cease by June this year following an unpleasant bout of trolling on social media for her criticisms of bitcoin.

Notwithstanding all of that, the discussion is civilised and reasonable and Frances is a very nice person. It features morality and religion, central banks and QE, scalability, rogue states, shadow banks, international settlements, etc...

Ordinarily I would advise to jump past the introductory plugs and ads but even at that, the plugs by the host give a glimpse into the technical development emerging in the crypto sector.

Give it 10-15mins, see if it of interest.
I gave it a go Wolfie. Many of the points have come up here. The one on divisibility and scarcity was a rabbit hole occupied by myself and @tecate some time ago. I agree with the bitcoiner on that one.
Frances did get one very good punch in: "holding bitcoin as a custodian is completely different from holding it as a reserve asset". More generally these claims that bitcoin is being adopted by this institution or that are really just them catering for a segment of their customer base (Microstrategy and Tesla are exceptions to that). Nic eventually agreed.
But in general I found that FC's objections were of a practical or even an ethical nature, she seemed to accept the underlying concept. I am much more a Roubinist/Nobelist - bitcoin is a nonsense, a BOHA, sorry if that offends.
 
I am much more a Roubinist/Nobelist - bitcoin is a nonsense, a BOHA, sorry if that offends.

None taken. I just referenced that podcast as a good example of what @tecate was alluding to by listening to a broad spectrum of opinion. In between the positions of - bitcoin destroying central banks v central banks destroying bitcoin - there is a large swathe of what I consider reasoned opinion and rationale thinking worth considering.
I am of the view that there is simply too much intellect standing behind bitcoin for it not to have some substantive underlying value.
What that value is in monetary terms I'm not sure. Although I note that bitcoin has returned to within range of my medium term forecast of $34,500. I did not forsee the Musk intervention and its impact. It appears to have subsided somewhat, for now.

I am actually quite bearish on bitcoin for the forseeable future if inflation takes hold in any significant way in the monetary system. It will be the management of that inflationary environment by central banks and governments that will determine how bitcoin performs. Im biased in thinking that things may get messy and bitcoin value will soar after that.
 
@WolfeTone I was reflecting on my OP which was written at the turn of the year when the price was c.$30k. I am not yet in a position to say "I told you so" but I am getting there. I hand it to you that you have had that honour ($34.5k) several times including today, congrats.
I note your circumstantial argument that there are enough smart cookies who are bitcoiners that it couldn't be a BOHA, a sort of counter to my argument that the really smart cookies do think it's BOHA.
Reflect that there are several major religions in the world each with what appear to be quite far fetched belief systems and each absolutely stuffed with some very keen intellects. There can at most be one that is correct.
I would say that Ross Stevens is not thick, yet somehow he contrives to see a connection between bitcoin and Darwin's theory of evolution.
 
Reflect that there are several major religions in the world each with what appear to be quite far fetched belief systems and each absolutely stuffed with some very keen intellects.

And more in-between, that have sustained value over the centuries.

he contrives to see a connection between bitcoin and Darwin's theory of evolution

He is talking about money. An abstract universal concept of communication between humans to transmit value between each other that has its origins as far back as the stone age.
It has taken many forms. Shells, clay tablets, barter, gold, silver, art, fiat, and now in a digital form, bitcoin.
 
And more in-between, that have sustained value over the centuries.
Good point. And I was reflecting that some (most) modern art is BOHA to me but there are clearly folk who think it is not BOHA and that is good to put a quite significant market cap on that space.
 
I was reflecting that some (most) modern art is BOHA to me but there are clearly folk who think it is not BOHA and that is good to

For sure. Art, religion, political, economic and monetary ideology... most of it can be BOHA to most people, most of the time.

Through the millenia, however, any particular strain or trend can take ascendency and sustain itself for centuries, or for as little as 15 mins of fame, or anywhere between.

Catholicism, Protestantism, Islam, Renaissance, Punk Rock, Rubiks Cube, Coca-Cola, Elvis, FF, Marx, Friedman, YouTube etc, etc..

I'm watching an interview between Martin Tyler and Sergio Augero on TV recounting Agueros famous goal to win Prem League.
For 90+% of global population... BOHA.
For a football fan like myself, a priceless moment, (and I'm a Liverpool fan).

The euro for instance. 20+yrs old, and me being a single currency type of person, I have to say I am not particularly endeared to the construct of this currency. It holds the ascendency, for now. But its construct is badly engineered. Albeit, for "greater good" or best intentions, its a bit of a mess.

Thank God for bitcoin.
 
Crypto project with coins and decentralized philosophy to stick it to the centralized finance overlord government controlled pigs…..…..but the founders just centralized the money into their accounts and ran away and left that note on their website for the DeFi community/network. Happened yesterday - surprise surprise as the crypto world unravels


More emperor has no clothes news to follow next week id guess as leverage undoes people in crypto land
 
that would never happen in the regulated fiat world?
In regulated fiat world you:
(1) you would be unable to market or solicit investment from retail investors without a due diligence assessment on both sides, acreditied investor etc.- crypto sh1tcoin world is 99% retail money
(2) in fiat world - you might actually know the name of the person who handed your life savings over to….these projects are in the name faceless and decentralized….good luck picking the con artist out of a line up!

I could go on…but it’s Sunday
 
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