Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

[DublinHead54]

Well I think if governments are mandating CBs to move to renewable energy sources then the same governments should practice what they preach and only allow import goods and services from foreign countries if they are satisfied that the foreign country is manufacturing and delivering the goods and services using renewable energy sources.
This will put the dirty fossil fuel industry out of business in no time.

So you aren't allowing time for governments and manufacturing to change over time? Conversely you are accepting that BTC needs time to convert to 100% renewable?

So you have a different view on how BTC should change vs say regular manufacturing? Or is your view that the switch should happen immediately regardless if it impacts BTC or not? Every industry should move to renewable immediately or die?

 

[WolfeTone]

you aren't allowing time for governments and manufacturing to change over time? Conversely you are accepting that BTC needs time to convert to 100% renewable?

Bitcoin, governments, manufacturing, consumers et al, all need time to move to renewable energy sources.

 

[DazedInPontoon]

Bitcoin can generally move much quicker too, since it's not location dependent. All you need is power and a sufficient internet connection. A cooler climate helps too.

 

[tecate]

Bitcoin, governments, manufacturing, consumers et al, all need time to move to renewable energy sources.

Indeed, but only bitcoin is being singled out for special treatment facing the Spanish Inquisition with a similar level of enlightenment as existed back then.

Bitcoin can generally move much quicker too, since it's not location dependent. All you need is power and a sufficient internet connection. A cooler climate helps too.

Indeed it can. One innovative startup has put together custom-built containers complete with mining kit adapted for adverse conditions that can be dropped into remote oil fields. They're ready to go to exploit flared gas that otherwise is not put to productive use (it cant be as we're talking about locations that lack inhabitants). The containers can be further redeployed as needed.
If a cheap energy source dries up, that kit isn't going to be binned. It will be sold off and redeployed globally. There have also been cases of governments confiscating kit and putting it back into service themselves directly.

Time to clear up some 'misunderstandings' - i cant remember who raised these but no matter.

I've never suggested that a government cant shut down bitcoin miners. If they can find them, then they can shut them down. What I do claim is that it's highly unlikely we will see 195 countries coordinate such an action as that's what's required to take the network down. 90% of countries wouldn't be enough.

Nobody here has ever suggested that bitcoin mining is a charitable activity. I have referred to it as a business that now requires significant investment for anyone who wishes to enter it.

On consideration of what awaits bitcoin and it's ecosystem going forward, of course that's relevant. In terms of the energy debate, previous posts have identified that bitcoin miners have a current and ongoing incentive to pursue the cheapest energy on the planet. That's why btc mining has a higher green energy content than other sectors. Other sectors don't have the same incentive (whereas the outcome could be bankruptcy for bitcoin miners if they don't find the cheapest energy). Other sectors can just coast along whereas bitcoin miners have no choice but to take an innovative approach to ensuring the cheapest supply on the planet.
As regards bitcoin generally, how the next years pan out is very important. Someone can decide to judge a technology that isn't complete if they wish but that would be a mistake. Imagine if AAMers put the internet on trial in 1990 based on what it could achieve at that point? It had scaling issues (sounds familiar), it was difficult to access and use (sound's familiar) and it hadn't disrupted anything at that point.

Its clear to me that some of the smartest minds around are building services on top of the bitcoin base settlement layer. Sure, its a speculation as regards the utility of what they build out but it still can't be ignored.

 

[tecate]

Just to underscore the increasingly green energy aspect of BTC mining, the comments of Norwegian billionaire Kjell Inge Rokke are interesting in his letter to shareholders earlier today where he announced the establishment of a bitcoin/bitcoin infrastructure unit within oil & gas company, Aker:

"Seetee will establish mining operations that transfer stranded or intermittent electricity without stable demand locally—wind, solar, hydro power— to economic assets that can be used anywhere. Bitcoin is, in our eyes, a load-balancing economic battery, and batteries are essential to the energy transition required to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. Our ambition is to be a valuable partner in new renewable projects."

 

[tecate]

This is an excellent piece written by Lyn Alden which sets out the power of network effect - and why bitcoin can only be toppled by a project which is 10x better than it.

 

[tecate]

A couple of important developments within the past 24 hours:

- It's emerged that Visa is working towards enabling bitcoin on its network such that it can be accepted by its 70 million merchants as a means of payment.
- Morgan Stanley has become the first major bank to offer its clients access to bitcoin-based funds.

 

[tecate]

The bit about adoption as a medium of exchange is of course a nonsense. They [Tesla] will accept bitcoin as payment which they say they may "immediately liquidate".

Elon has confirmed that a Tesla can now be bought with bitcoin. He's also stated that the company will retain any funds received in BTC and won't convert them back to fiat money.

 

[24601]

Elon has confirmed that a Tesla can now be bought with bitcoin. He's also stated that the company will retain any funds received in BTC and won't convert them back to fiat money.

Well that absolutely confirms his utter lunacy anyway.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Elon has confirmed that a Tesla can now be bought with bitcoin. He's also stated that the company will retain any funds received in BTC and won't convert them back to fiat money.

The climbdown is more telling than the original. The original is simply a common sense statement from the bean counters. If your operating currency is US$ or whatever then any revenues will in the normal course be converted into US$ irrespective of whether they originated as £, Y, €, BTC. That is normal practice. That Elon feels compelled to claim a different approach in respect to BTC emphasises that he was sensitive that the original statement somewhat detracted from his pump strategy.
Anyway the commitment is meaningless. I presume Elon has a sense of how much BTC he wants to pump and when he wants to dump. This minor detail regarding the immediate treatment of BTC sales of Testa is immaterial to that strategy.

 

[WolfeTone]

The climbdown is more telling than the original. The original is simply a common sense statement from the bean counters. If your operating currency is US$ or whatever then any revenues will in the normal course be converted into US$ irrespective of whether they originated as £, Y, €, BTC. That is normal practice. That Elon feels compelled to claim a different approach in respect to BTC emphasises that he was sensitive that the original statement somewhat detracted from his pump strategy.
Anyway the commitment is meaningless. I presume Elon has a sense of how much BTC he wants to pump and when he wants to dump. This minor detail regarding the immediate treatment of BTC sales of Testa is immaterial to that strategy.

I do admire your resilience, albeit it is oft misplaced.

A long-standing tenet of the Roubini school of thought is that you cannot buy anything with bitcoin. Along comes a commercial trader who openly accepts bitcoin in exchange for goods his company produces, and that is now 'meaningless'!

The volatility of the US$ to BTC would suggest otherwise.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I do admire your resilience, albeit it is oft misplaced.

A long-standing tenet of the Roubini school of thought is that you cannot buy anything with bitcoin. Along comes a commercial trader who openly accepts bitcoin in exchange for goods his company produces, and that is now 'meaningless'!

The volatility of the US$ to BTC would suggest otherwise.

I think you are over interpreting Professor Roubini. I think he would acknowledge that 2 pizzas were bought for 10,000 btc and that there currently is an active cult in buying lattes with btc. This does not in any material way detract from his assertion that it is not a medium of exchange.

Why is Musk boring us with the minituae of Tesla's forex day to day transactions? Why is he operating a different policy on btc than for other forex as would be implemented by his bean counters? I'll tell you why. It is part of his pump propaganda which has already been good for a paper gain of about $500M since he made his announcement. Please let us not believe that the announcement that he would accept payment in btc was merely updating his shareholders on operational matters. It was pumping the $1.5bn purchase of btc that he was simultaneously announcing.

I wonder how many Tesla insiders benefitted from the totally to be anticipated boost in btc following rocketman's announcement. We will never know, as dealings in btc are censor resistant. What a wonderkid btc is, the way round all regulation.

 

[WolfeTone]

Please let us not believe that the announcement that he would accept payment in btc was merely updating his shareholders on operational matters

The official and formal update to shareholders on operational matters re buying and acceptance of bitcoin was transmitted to the SEC back in early February. This is just an normal commercial announcement, that any other of millions of commercial entities undertake over the world everyday. Like "we now accept American Express", or "You can now buy our merchandise on-line".

It is perfectly normal practice, but only in Roubini school of thought would a dark and sinister theory of wanting to make available additional purchase options to prospective customers amount to a 'pump and dump scheme'.

Think about it, in order to purchase a $50,000 Telsa with bitcoin, I either have to buy $50,000 worth of btcoin or use my existing bitcoin (valued at $50,000).
Where is the pump? Where is the dump?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The official and formal update to shareholders on operational matters re buying and acceptance of bitcoin was transmitted to the SEC back in early February. This is just an normal commercial announcement, that any other of millions of commercial entities undertake over the world everyday. Like "we now accept American Express", or "You can now buy our merchandise on-line".

It is perfectly normal practice, but only in Roubini school of thought would a dark and sinister theory of wanting to make available additional purchase options to prospective customers amount to a 'pump and dump scheme'.

Think about it, in order to purchase a $50,000 Telsa with bitcoin, I either have to buy $50,000 worth of btcoin or use my existing bitcoin (valued at $50,000).
Where is the pump? Where is the dump?

I was referring to the earlier formal announcement. We can see that the announcement got far more attention than a run of the mill "we now accept American Express". If you think that the purchase of btc in the weeks before this announcement was pure coincidence you are even more nigh eve than your eponymous forebear. That is the pump. Why give this latest clarification to a minor operational matter if not to keep the pump primed.
Rocketman will decide when to dump.

 

[WolfeTone]

If you think that the purchase of btc in the weeks before this announcement was pure coincidence

The announcement to SEC and stockmarkets is a regulatory requirement if I am not mistaken?
To then deduce from complying with regulatory requirements is all part of some scurrilous pump and dump scheme is laughable.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The announcement to SEC and stockmarkets is a regulatory requirement if I am not mistaken?
To then deduce from complying with regulatory requirements is all part of some scurrilous pump and dump scheme is laughable.

Strange sense of humour Wolfie.
If you think an investment in btc just prior to a highly reported operational endorsement of btc, which together pumped btc to the tune of about $20, was coincidence then there is nothing much more that I can say.
So on this latest announcement why treat btc purchases different from other forex purchases and make a big announcement about it? To keep the pump primed, what else? Wasn't @tecate on to it like a flash.

 

[MelF]

Was considering firing a few quid into it, but this article gave me pause. It's a bit long and breathless, but think the point stands. Possible shenanigans afoot somewhere?

The Bit Short: Inside Cryptoâs Doomsday Machine

This is the story of a Bitcoin tradeâââthe most financially impactful trade Iâve ever made in my life. Itâs also the story of theâ¦

crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com

 

[WolfeTone]

Strange sense of humour Wolfie. If you think an investment in btc just prior to a highly reported operational endorsement of btc was coincidence nothing much more that I can say.

Ah c'mon Duke, the Roubini one has you in a stranglehold. We've been through BOHA, been through criminality, been through Ponzi and Tether, and BTC is alive and well, more so than ever.
Now the pump and dump get-rich-quick schemesters are behind the BTC bubble, billionaire Musk being one of them - because what else would he be doing with his already accumulated enormous wealth other than park it in some nefarious fraud?

Or is it more likely that as Musk understands bitcoin and intends to trade in it, that holding a quantity of it in reserve makes perfect economic and financial sense?

Actually, shouldn't a pump of $1.9trn into the US economy be on the pump-and-dump radar more so? Where did they get it from? From the Tether playbook?

 

[tecate]

Well that absolutely confirms his utter lunacy anyway.

How so?

there currently is an active cult in buying lattes with btc.

The pre-imminent fiat currency in the world includes the words 'In God We Trust' on its notes yet anyone who is even mildly encouraged by this monetary tech is part of a 'cult'.

This does not in any material way detract from his assertion that it is not a medium of exchange.

Real world examples of its use as a medium of exchange suggest that over the longer haul, he's going to be proven wrong. Roubini (or your good self) can disregard the power of a network effect that's growing year on year all you want - but its a mistake to do so.

Why is Musk boring us with the minituae of Tesla's forex day to day transactions?

Boring you? Firstly, if it 'bores' you then, you don't have to pay him or his statements any attention. Secondly, I'm quite sure he's being asked repeatedly when such payments will be accepted.

It is part of his pump propaganda which has already been good for a paper gain of about $500M since he made his announcement.

LOL - of course it is, Dukey

I wonder how many Tesla insiders benefitted from the totally to be anticipated boost in btc following rocketman's announcement. We will never know, as dealings in btc are censor resistant.

What on earth are you talking about!? Do you even know what censorship resistance is - as that statement of yours suggests you don't.
What 'way around regulation'? Tesla is a regulated company. Bitcoin is regulated in terms of how it is utilised within that corporate world. You're just dreaming up and casting aspersions now.

We can see that the announcement got far more attention than a run of the mill "we now accept American Express".

YOU said at the time that this was a potential 'game-changer'!

If you think that the purchase of btc in the weeks before this announcement was pure coincidence you are even more nigh eve than your eponymous forebear. That is the pump. Why give this latest clarification to a minor operational matter if not to keep the pump primed.
Rocketman will decide when to dump.

Turn on CNBC right now. Within 5 minutes there will be some Wall Street type that is shilling something or other. When have you ever criticised this? Yet in this instance, you're all over it because of a hatred for a certain decentralised monetary tech. Where was your moral outrage 12 months ago when that hedge fund owner went onto CNBC and told everyone - with oscar-winning emotion -that the world was ending...only to find a few weeks later he had made millions having taken the opposite position to what he was stating!?

If you think an investment in btc just prior to a highly reported operational endorsement of btc, which together pumped btc to the tune of about $20, was coincidence then there is nothing much more that I can say.

See above.

Wasn't @tecate on to it like a flash.

You deliberately misinterpreted Tesla's original statement on the matter. They stated that they 'may' convert btc received to usd - but you pointed to that with the suggestion that they would - not that they 'may'. It's on the back of that that I've brought Musk's clarification (that they won't convert back to usd) to your attention. Other than that, is it significant? - of course it is. Hiroo Onoda wouldn't hold a candle to you, your dukeness!

Was considering firing a few quid into it, but this article gave me pause. It's a bit long and breathless, but think the point stands. Possible shenanigans afoot somewhere?

The Bit Short: Inside Cryptoâs Doomsday Machine

This is the story of a Bitcoin tradeâââthe most financially impactful trade Iâve ever made in my life. Itâs also the story of theâ¦

crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com

FUD - fear, uncertainty and doubt. There is NO evidence to back up these claims. Tether/Bitfinex were investigated over 2 years and the NY AG came up with diddly squat. There's a thread on it here.

 

[tecate]

Actually, shouldn't a pump of $1.9trn into the US economy be on the pump-and-dump radar more so? Where did they get it from? From the Tether playbook?

Now, now, Wolfie - we don't talk about that sort of thing here!