As yet the strain of flu that could cause the feared pandemic does not exist. What is feared is a human to human mutation of the H5N1 virus.
This is most likely to happen in an Asian country where hens and geese are kept in the same pens as pigs. This environment offers the highest probability of the virus mutating into a form that can be transferred between mammals. Once this strain exists it is a small jump to humans. This new strain could be transferred back to wild birds (usually ducks) in the same way. As wild bird populations migrate it would follow the same path as the current strain. This has been the historical way that flu viruses have arrived in the west but the chances are that with international travel being what it is human to human contamination will spread the disease faster.
Because farm birds are not kept with pigs or other mammals in Europe in the same way as they are in Asia it is very unlikely that the human to human strain will first appear in Europe. Because there is so much movement of people around the world now the disease would spread without the help of wild birds. For these reasons I don’t see the existence of H5N1 in dead swans as a public health issue for Europe. An issue for our poultry industry; most definitely. A cause for panic: no.
This is most likely to happen in an Asian country where hens and geese are kept in the same pens as pigs. This environment offers the highest probability of the virus mutating into a form that can be transferred between mammals. Once this strain exists it is a small jump to humans. This new strain could be transferred back to wild birds (usually ducks) in the same way. As wild bird populations migrate it would follow the same path as the current strain. This has been the historical way that flu viruses have arrived in the west but the chances are that with international travel being what it is human to human contamination will spread the disease faster.
Because farm birds are not kept with pigs or other mammals in Europe in the same way as they are in Asia it is very unlikely that the human to human strain will first appear in Europe. Because there is so much movement of people around the world now the disease would spread without the help of wild birds. For these reasons I don’t see the existence of H5N1 in dead swans as a public health issue for Europe. An issue for our poultry industry; most definitely. A cause for panic: no.