Not until your subsequent posts I didn't.Yes I was in error in describing hash as hashtag but I think you knew what I meant.
Why isn't it rational? The amount of Bitcoin in circulation will drop. Bitcoin mining farms have real world expenses in FIAT. They have to sell the 'reward' that they receive for mining. Half of that reward is going to disappear yet they have the same expenses.As I have explained in another post there is no rational reason why halving should have any effect on the price but I take your word for it that this has been past experience. That is an empirical observation but I presume you have no rational explanation as to why it should be so.
There is plenty of market irrationality but I don't think that specific point is an example. Furthermore, there can be all manner of irrationality on the market end of things and yet still be something tangible at the core of the technology. There can still be a utility in terms of electronic money.Why would I expect crypto pricing to be rational, silly Duke
Well we've already touched on it so I don't see what the confusion is. I believe that people should have the financial freedom to use unconfiscatable, borderless money anonymously.
I believe that AML/KYC are an unnecessary evil - that cause regular people a lot of grief and don't stop the cartels in moving money.
As I said before, government agencies need to make a decision - either ban it or embrace it.
Yes, there has been market manipulation and wash trading. It's a new market and its a small market so much easier to manipulate.
If you're saying that Bitcion as a protocol has to change in some way so that institutions can use it to fulfill some regulatory demand or other, well that simply won't be happening. The regulator or any government agency won't be walking in to the offices of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency - because there is no such office or central point.
Do the original cipher punks who were behind efforts to get Bitcoin off the ground have any time for this aspect of things? Absolutely not.
Bitcoin is already what it is - it cant be changed.
Not until your subsequent posts I didn't.
Clearly I misunderstand bitcoin - fpalb please help. I was led to believe that bitcoin supply would continue to grow until 2040 (or is it 2140) when it reached its max of 21m. But you explain that this halving will cause the amount of bitcoin in circulation to drop.Not until your subsequent posts I didn't.
Why isn't it rational? The amount of Bitcoin in circulation will drop. Bitcoin mining farms have real world expenses in FIAT. They have to sell the 'reward' that they receive for mining. Half of that reward is going to disappear yet they have the same expenses.
Clearly I misunderstand bitcoin - fpalb please help. I was led to believe that bitcoin supply would continue to grow until 2040 (or is it 2140) when it reached its max of 21m. But you explain that this halving will cause the amount of bitcoin in circulation to drop.
I think you are still misunderstanding the dynamic. See my post above. Miners won't be putting as much BTC onto the market to sell - to pay for their hefty FIAT based expenses.When it comes to bitcoin there is no mystery about the supply side. It is more or less cast in stone and has already achieved 83% of its ultimate destiny. So forget the supply side or any of this halving stuff.
Eh,Nerds 1%
Anti establishment zealots 1%
Shocking!This huge share of the pie taken by this last is a surprise even to me
I believe I offered a longer list of triggers. You've decided to discount them from your pinpoint accurate breakdown.I also omitted a couple.tecate developments on the futures exchanges
Leo market manipulation
This market has proven to be cyclical. What happened in 2017 had happened on four previous occasions. As regards shorting, good to see someone have conviction in their beliefs - go for it. Personally (in my completely unqualified opinion) I believe that this recent surge will retrace but I'm relatively confident that the market will move upwards and revisit the ATH price between now and Dec 2021.The former is reminiscent of the 2017 surge to 20$ which quickly reversed
The latter must also reverse quickly
Perhaps time for the Duke to renew his short position. Ironically the price is now roughly where it was when I closed out my 14k short position in early 2018
No problem - but understand that anyone who had a genuine interest in Bitcoin originally (aside from the speculative pricing sideshow) bought into the concept on precisely this basis. This in effect is what Bitcoin is about. To change those fundamentals (if it were possible) is to kill it.That's your belief and you're entitled to it. But you are clearly in a minority, and so you need to realise that the banking system will never dilute regulation to allow those who share your beliefs bypass controls put in place for the protection of consumers.
I didn't say that the cartels can do it easily. However, they have the resources to do it. I see it every day - where i'm located these days, I see 'businesses' that are simply washing money. That's 99.9% of what they do.Again, if the cartels can move money so easily, why are they so invested in physical assets and engaging in elaborate money laundering schemes that see them lose a significant percentage of funds? Apart from people who want to interact with exchanges that can't prove compliance, what issues are you referring to here? Surely AAM would be flooded with threads on the issue if there was such 'a lot of grief'.
We are locked in diametrically opposing views on this one and nothing it seems will change that. Crime can be fought in the traditional sense. That's the way it was not so long ago before all this AML/KYC nonsense. We disagree on it - so lets park it up.And again, just because a rule or regulation doesn't stop 100% of fraud is a very poor reason to row back on those rules. Indeed, the only case it makes is for the strengthening of those rules. We should aspire to a system that gets as close to the elimination of fraud as possible. To suggest throwing the doors open because we haven't yet gotten to 100% elimination makes no sense whatsoever.
I disagree. You can't make such changes to a decentralised currency - much less changes that are fundamental to it. You can't ask for what's not available to be provided in terms of info. Are we saying then that there can't be any transfer from any cryptocurrency exchange? In which case, can there be sufficient maturity from the regulators to say so - as that's NOT what they're saying right now.They really don't. It's the crypto world that needs to mature and figure out what it wants to be if it's to thrive. If it wants to be linked into the regular financial system, it needs to figure out how to play by the rules, if it wants to remain a wild west of anonymity, then it needs to understand why it will always face restrictions.
Nonsense. Look, what has that got to do with me as an ordinary joe transacting wealth in the form of Bitcoin? Centralised exchanges need to be properly regulated. The irony is that everyone in the industry wants them properly regulated - but regulators are sitting on their hands.That is actually a very good argument as to why established banks should protect themselves and their customers and have nothing to do with it.
I'm not misunderstanding you at all. I'm well aware they have fiduciary obligations. The fact is that they want to invest in crypto but have been reluctant to do so up until now for this very reason. I didn't suggest that Bitcoin not being centrally controlled diminishes their fiduciary responsibility. However, you seem to be suggesting that the cryptocurrency itself needs to be changed when it can't (nor is there a desire to do so even if it was possible).You're misunderstanding me there. So Fidelity are offering intra-institution trading. It is Fidelity and those other institutions that will be audited on these transactions just as all of their existing institutional and retail trading activities are. The fact that Bitcoin doesn't have an office in no way diminishes their regulatory responsibility regarding such trading.
Lets be realistic here. I don't think I'm going out on a limb in saying that 99.99% of those very same people had bank accounts and did everyday banking like everyone else. How would they have gotten paid? How would they have paid their mortgages?Fully agree with that, but it's clear they had such mistrust of the financial institutions that they would not be getting hung up on those very institutions refusing to play by their rules. I'd imagine they would be pretty disappointed if their vision's success or failure hinged on whether people could escape the crypto world back to the banks they so loathed.
Indeed, just as the heavily regulated financial systems are what they are and can't be changed to facilitate the flouting of the very regulations they run under.
Yeah, fair point - but I never disagreed that there wasn't large helpings of irrational behaviour in the market.I see the point though a rational market would have already priced this in; it is not new information.
I'm still on the fence as regards all reasons provided but nice to be able to almost agree with someone on this thread occasionally.I think I’ll buy this “halving” thing being a significant if somewhat irrational factor in the uptick.
This in effect is what Bitcoin is about. To change those fundamentals (if it were possible) is to kill it.
I didn't say that the cartels can do it easily. However, they have the resources to do it. I see it every day - where i'm located these days, I see 'businesses' that are simply washing money. That's 99.9% of what they do.
As regards issues, have you ever had a bank account closed? Have you ever had YOUR money locked up until some jobsworth somewhere gets whatever documentation they demand?
You seem to see this as a non issue yet its central to the development of Bitcoin.
There are places where you can only bring money into a country in a certain way and have it registered with the central bank.
We are locked in diametrically opposing views on this one and nothing it seems will change that. Crime can be fought in the traditional sense. That's the way it was not so long ago before all this AML/KYC nonsense. We disagree on it - so lets park it up.
Are we saying then that there can't be any transfer from any cryptocurrency exchange? In which case, can there be sufficient maturity from the regulators to say so - as that's NOT what they're saying right now.
Nonsense. Look, what has that got to do with me as an ordinary joe transacting wealth in the form of Bitcoin?
I'm not misunderstanding you at all. I'm well aware they have fiduciary obligations. The fact is that they want to invest in crypto but have been reluctant to do so up until now for this very reason.
Bitcoin and crypto has been borne into an established financial system.
The regulations can be changed. Or if you're saying the decision is that Bitcoin be banned - then go ahead and ban it. You're saying that we can't have it both ways. I'm saying the very same for governments (which by the way are supposed to represent all of us). But let them ban it and see what happens.
Of course - we are in complete agreement. Changes can only be made by consensus. There is no earthly way such a consensus would be reached as its core to what Bitcoin is all about.I think we both know they are not going to change those fundamentals, those behind Bitcoin have no reason to make it easy for people to cash out, that's not what their vision is.
I'm not in Ireland. I'm overseas in the home of the cartels. I don't think that they'd appreciate me having a word. lolYou should probably report that to the ODCE.
Ok, is there a list of approved cryptocurrency exchanges and non-approved exchanges? And if you're saying that none of them are and no funds can be accepted from a cryptocurrency exchange, let the regulators come out and say exactly that (because they're not saying that).I haven't, but then I have been careful in my financial dealings not to trade with companies or platforms that are widely acknowledged to harbour widespread criminal activity.
This cuts both ways. Why has there not been a complete blanket ban on crypto?Given the scale of the financial industry, it absolutely is a non-issue. If the future development of Bitcoin is dependent on the financial system it rails against setting aside their rules to accommodate it, and turn a blind eye to the illegal activity that goes along with it, then Bitcoin is doomed. Most crypto advocates don't see this as an issue, it's mainly those who are purely in it for speculation have a problem.
Yes, A.A. has said that crypto has far more potential in developing countries. Exactly to that point - what I mentioned. There are FIAT based systems that are supposed to be about AML/KYC that are unreal in their bureaucracy and demands. It's not just about your experience in Ireland. As regards cashing out, I wasn't necessarily talking about cashing out crypto in that instance. That's any money that comes into the country. I'm not going into the finer points of it but it's a complete bureaucratic nightmare.That was one of the key topics of Antonopulos' talk in UCD last year. It is in such jurisdictions that he sees crypto having function. The last think anyone in such a place is likely to want to do is cash out to a back account though.
Well, as I said - we simply don't agree on it - so lets leave it be. And by the way, that's Antonopoulos' view on the matter also.Fair enough, I can't understand how a rational person would see AML/KYC as nonsense.
I'm not sure what it is you're looking for. Crypto exchanges do implement KYC/AML. I can't use a crypto exchange without doing the same identity verification as with a bank. What are we even doing it for if I still can't move my funds?There's no reason why the exchanges can't implement systems that would allow them become compliant, most of them aren't mature enough to do so yet, some are, others will likely get there. The challenge they have is much of the crypto world doesn't want compliance. They don't want that regulation and availability of audit trail, proof of identities, etc..
There has been limited investment from such circles globally. I can't talk about Ireland specifically but I can't imagine how that's any further on. I've spoken to someone who operates an exchange in lreland and he lamented the lack of regulation in relation to crypto - and the need for regulatory clarity.You're quite a few years behind the times if you think they're only investing now, there's even been a lot of the work carried out in Ireland.
I can't say I know the Bitcoin whitepaper from memory. Did he/she/they actually state 'eliminate the banking system'? My understanding is that it was definitely in response to mismanagement and wrong doing in the conventional system. I'd imagine it was with a view of 'offering an alternative'. I don't recall it being so militant as to replace it. If you've got a link to that tract of text, I'd be interested in reading it.Satoshi's vision was to eliminate the banking system entirely. Not link the two together in any way.
Eh, when you WORD it like that, then no rational person would say boo to you. However, there is more than one way to look at it. If I was to tell you that criminals and paedo's are using the internet to carry on their illicit activity (as was bandied about when the web first emerged), based on your logic it should be shut down.I've never said Bitcoin should be banned, I've often said it's flawed, but never said it should be banned. Again, I don't see why a government would ban Bitcoin. It comes down to two choices:
1. Facilitate the development of Bitcoin/ crypto, scrap AML / fraud prevention rules and let the criminals have an easy life
2. Continue to make life as difficult as possible for the criminals, with some inconvenience to the development of Bitcoin/ crypto
Which option do you think the majority of citizens would choose? Exactly to your point, governments represent us all, that doesn't mean they implement legislation for us each individually.
Regulations have to keep up to pace with technology. It's normal to have them updated to account for that. That's why the industry in the U.S. - and progressive politicians in the U.S. are calling for new legislation to deal with crypto. It's why some of the more progressive states in the U.S. (Wyoming) have passed a whole raft of laws in recent months to facilitate innovation.What great value does crypto have that would outweigh the negatives of rolling back regulations?
Fairly unbelievable really. The bit that gets me is UBS getting off because they ratted on the others. Do the other guys now boycott UBS?And just to add -> this. <-
These guys are the standard bearers of the conventional financial world, right?
There's no honour amongst ....?.....pillars of corporate society.The bit that gets me is UBS getting off because they ratted on the others. Do the other guys now boycott UBS?
I'm not sure what it is you're looking for. Crypto exchanges do implement KYC/AML. I can't use a crypto exchange without doing the same identity verification as with a bank. What are we even doing it for if I still can't move my funds?
Having seen the level of KYC expertise at a crypto broker and knowing someone who worked as a KYC person there - I can tell you they are not. They are playing at it - going through the motions. There is no expertise. It's usually the job of a junior person. It's box ticking with no oversight.
Just as a very simple example - they had concluded they needed reduced documentation from people from Costa Rica because it was a US territory and therefore could be treated as onshore US. So when basic geography is not understood, the complexities of multi-layered offshore trust vehicles are definitely not getting looked at
Eh, when you WORD it like that, then no rational person would say boo to you. However, there is more than one way to look at it. If I was to tell you that criminals and paedo's are using the internet to carry on their illicit activity (as was bandied about when the web first emerged), based on your logic it should be shut down.
I don't feel that citizens should be deprived of something that can advance society on some hyped up agenda of 'you can't because its the tool of criminals'. Crypto does offer the potential to improve on aspects of current systems. And again, you'd have heard Antonopoulos take this stance...and I whole heartedly agree with him.
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