"Belfast" vs "Good Friday" agreement

Duke of Marmalade said:
The IRA are now wild keen for a border poll. Do they think there will be a different result from 1973? I could similarly ask why unionists are so against it when they relished the 1973 poll.
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Because the poll result under the GFA will be legally binding.

The principle of consent being applied.

And once it is applied once, it sets precedent. Once there is precedent, then the result of future border polls will be bound and as I have said before, a result in favour of a UI only has to happen once.
A result in favour of remaining in UK has to happen all the time.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@WolfeTone I don't get that. I guess I am a slow learner.
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I don't think it's hard to understand.
Just as nationalists boycotted the 1973 referendum, my understanding is that DUP would boycott a border poll under terms of GFA.
They never signed up to it and when it comes to NI status within the UK they do not believe in the principle of consent.

They need to be challenged on this as 70% of people of NI voted in favour of GFA.
 
Ok, that makes a (little) bit more sense though I have never seen it quite articulated in that way by Mary Lou et al.
A boycott would be one massive gamble by the DUP because it would lead to a certain win for the Nationalists and as you say the legal process would imply a UI, irrespective of whether Pootsie is law abiding or not. It would make their Brexit gamble look like a £ each way on the Grand National versus betting the house.
 
It's all part of the political strategising. The DUP have not said they would boycott it either but they have had no reason to pull that tactic out of the bag, yet.
I have had cause on a few occasions to engage this point with some DUP members, including one touted future leader (Gavin Robinson). When pushed on the issue of accepting a border poll that questions the constitutional status of NI in the UK the answer was always the same - no.

It is not for SF to hold the DUP to the wishes of the people of NI. It will be for the Irish and British governments.

It's 2021, not 1914. The notion that Unionists could be allowed usurp the results of a democratic poll of the people that went against their demands is to make a mockery of democratic principles, and lead militant Republicans back into the IRA.

The boycott will be a tactic to be used at the mere hint or suggestion of an SoS facilitating a border poll.
That is why, at 44% in favour of a UI, the political argument for holding a poll is weak. To strengthen it, the constitutional arrangements of a UI will have to be determined first by across the broad political spectrum.
Unionists can either choose to participate in this or ignore it.
But as I have mentioned, if the low 2/3% of unionist opinion that is favour of a UI ever began to increase in any significant way, then it will force the hand of Unionist politicians to engage.

I see Jeffrey D has thrown his hat into the DUP leadership race. I wish him well. I might not agree with his politics but I accept he is more pragmatic when it comes to dealing with us Southerners.
 
If SF/IRA is playing high stakes poker with the DUP on this then for sure this is "not the time". More likely their IRA masters have merely reminded SF to keep the big prize top of the agenda. Again it's not the time.
You keep strange company Wolfie
 
Brexit has changed the whole dynamic of this matter. It has little to do with SF.
SF may be the loudest in the room, but there is little reason to think that the NI Protocol was possible without Ireland being (enthusiastic) members of the EU.

Unionism has been dealt a slap in the face by mother England. Stoic in their outlook, unionism directs its anger at Dublin, Shinners and EU.

@Duke of Marmalade wants to shape this as a narrow battleground between SF and Unionists in traditional street disturbances in Belfast.

The players involved now are beyond that. Irish-America and the EU for instance.
 
Jayz Wolfie we're discussing the timing of the IRA's call for a border poll and you throw at me the 1791 Act of Union, the EU, Irish America
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Jayz Wolfie we're discussing the timing of the IRA's call for a border poll and you throw at me the 1791 Act of Union, the EU, Irish America
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Yeh, I'm figuring that... and admittedly its just a hunch....that the prospect of a border poll will invite more nuanced consideration over a bare Yes/No type Irish independent.ie poll.

But as I said, that's just my hunch.
 
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PP has Poots and Donaldson even money each, more or less. I do hope Poots wins as I think that will ensure a Fenian First Minister next year.
 
Michael McDowell in IT answers my question. SF and DUP slipped in the last elections and next year's are looming. So SF are lobbying for a border poll knowing that there is neither any chance of winning one nor any chance of being granted one so as to keep the national question at the forefront of next year's NI election. As MMcD observes it is to heighten the divisions in NI on which the extremes thrive.
 
Sinn Fein, as the name suggests, are only interested in themselves. They are the epitome of cynical self interest.
 

I agree broadly with MMcD on the point of outlining what Irish unification is supposed to look like. SF want a 32 county socialist republic, but do the people of Ireland want that? Clearly not.

But the idea that SF, in kite-flying a border poll for Irish Unity is to 'inflame and polarise northern politics' is just more 'now is not the right time' nonsense. In case MMcD hadn't noticed, the division of the country inflamed and polarised Irish politics for a century and counting.

The pursuit of an ideal of a united Ireland is not extreme, it is overwhemingly the centre view of the vast majority of the people living on this island. How it would be constitutionally agreed is the big question which I agree with MMcD with.

Partitionists, like McDowell, pretend the ideals of pursuing legitimate political aim for a united Ireland written in the constitution should be enough, therefore everyone should stop talking about it.
SF flying the kite, of a perfectly legitimate aspiration, has been ignored for years. They have been shouting for this since 1998, but across the political spectrum few paid much heed.
The prospect of a border poll being successful for SF is remote. But MMcD is ignoring the caveat of a border poll that would establish the principle of consent of the people in NI in practice, rather than just principle. This is SF's aim, forcing the DUP and that block of Unionism that cannot fathom the constitutional status of NI being determined by the people of NI exercising their right to self-determination. These people are subjects to the sovereignty of the British monarch, to them, it is infallible.

And now that Brexit has thrown up the conumdrum of the Irish border and had everyone in knots, the light is being shone across the broader spectrum of the Irish political landscape.

Typically, a partitionist like McDowell says anyone can devise a models for Irish unity, yet offers no view on what he thinks a united Ireland could look like himself. Nor is he inclined to. He see's the aspiration of a United Ireland is written into the constitution and GFA and that should be enough. He wants everyone to stop talking about it, it is just more "now is not the right time" mantra.
 
@WolfeTone "now is not the right time" is indeed the mantra of all the political participants*, except SF/IRA. They are using Brexit as cover for stoking it up at this, the wrong time. But not because they are true to your spirit of 1798 but because prodding at the old wound is the best way to keep these reconciliation pansies Alliance and SDLP in their box, with an Assembly election on the horizon.

* edited in response to pedantic comment from you know who
 
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EmmDee said:
I don't believe MMcD is advocating partitioning anything.
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I think he is clearly advocating keeping the status quo of a partitioned island indefinitely. Which I would consider contrary to the Irish Constitution and to the wishes of the overwhelming majority of people being expressed in a recent poll.

One the 100yr anniversary MMcD is quoted as writing "The North badly needs a decade of political quietude and conciliation."
You can interpret that to whatever you want, but to my mind it is the language of putting the issue on the long-finger, kick the can-down-the-road, don;t want to talk about that, now is not the right time, it will upset the others.

As a legislator in our Parliament, MMcD will be conscious of his duty to be bound by the Constitution that affords him his status as a legislator. I agree with his sentiment that there is a prior obligation on anyone calling for a Border poll to propose the model of Irish Unity. Calling for a poll without setting out clearly the actual manner to be decided (in the context of hoping to or expecting to win) is pointless.

Equally however, not setting out a model of Irish Unity, allowing for debate, discourse, persuasion, to develop and expecting there ever to be a united Ireland is also pointless. MMcD is firmly in this camp.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
now is not the right time" is indeed the mantra of everyone, except SF/IRA.
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This is simply not true.
In the recent poll 90% of people in the South said they would like to see a border poll within 10yrs (19% now, 51% within 5yrs, 21% within 10yrs). MMcD is firmly in the 10% of kick-the-can-down the road for 10yrs before we should even broach the subject. His view is extremist at best.
 
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Another nail in the coffin of the failed 100yr old statelet called Northern Ireland. Police made 'significant investigative failures' over four Belfast deaths in 1969 including the first child to be killed in the conflict, Patrick Rooney, (9).
It is a story that is to repeat itself over and over again for the following 25yrs right up to the slaughter of six innocent men in Loughinisland Heights Bar, watching one of Irelands greatest nights in the World Cup in 1994.

I go with Colum Eastwoods quote of the proposed amnesty for these killers

“If true, this will be the biggest betrayal of victims by the British government & will put a huge obstacle in the way of true reconciliation. This is the most unprincipled & cynical British government in many years and that’s saying something. An absolute disgrace. Shame on them.”

Michael McDowell, where are u today?
 
It absolutely beggars belief that, for example, the killers of Mountbatten and the "heroes" of Warrenpoint can now appear with impunity at SF commemorations and make a few bob out of writing their books. Possibly even stand for election in West Belfast. This must be a hoax.
 
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