Baggot Street Investment Partners - Peter Brown.

[Early Riser]

The Financial Dangers lurking beneath.

I randomly picked the following one from your list. Have you actually read it? It is from last August. There is nothing in it that you wouldn't read on here. Here is his conclusion : "What is certain is that inflation will stay stubborn for some time, interest rates will rise, and markets will stay volatile." Was he wrong? Or just "doom-mongering"?

Peter Brown: This economic crisis is very different to 2008, but more complex

We are in an environment where nobody is questioning price increases, so everybody is doing it. Inflation is the great excuse to increase profit margins

www.irishexaminer.com

I haven't read the others that you have carefully and selectively linked? But have you followed Brendan's admonition:

I really don't think you can say that without documenting all his forecasts over the last ten years and comparing them with the outcomes.

And maybe when you do this you could also compare them to others?

 

[FintanJ]

In general, I favour a passive investment strategy. However, i am open to listening to those advocating an active approach and I don’t rubbish them automatically. I know of Peter Brown’s name but nothing else about him or his firm.

 

[Always Learning]

Peter Brown and David Flynn: Why Irish pension savers will need to be wary of Wall Street

There are good reasons that battered Irish pension funds for both those who are still at work and saving toward retirement and those who have already retired should be wary of the outlook for US stock markets — despite the huge rally in recent weeks.

www.irishexaminer.com

See above warning investors about overvaluation in the US.

I take your point in that he's opinionated and tries to make predictions on the market. Not sure that he is quite the Prophet of Doom though. I just read the post above (I'll read the others tomorrow when I have a little time) and he's basically saying to be wary of the US market, he thinks it's over valued and "This is why we believe European stocks and emerging markets will outperform the US market."

Again, making predictions on the market isn't a popular position, maybe even foolish, but I'm not sure I agree he's a shock jock or overly negative.

Nevertheless, I asked for people's opinions on him so I'm glad you linked those. I'll continue to research. It's important to hear the good and the bad.

In general, I favour a passive investment strategy.

In general, I would agree and the split of the investment will be weighted toward a longer term passive approach. But some a (quarter or third maybe) will be used to take a chance on a more active strategy and try to chase some gains.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Just because passive has done well over recent years, that won’t necessarily be the case looking forward.

What’s the US relative to the world, 65-70%?

Is that an approach that will work for a Euro based investor?

Is it risky?

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I randomly picked the following one from your list. Have you actually read it? It is from last August. There is nothing in it that you wouldn't read on here. Here is his conclusion : "What is certain is that inflation will stay stubborn for some time, interest rates will rise, and markets will stay volatile." Was he wrong? Or just "doom-mongering"?

Peter Brown: This economic crisis is very different to 2008, but more complex

We are in an environment where nobody is questioning price increases, so everybody is doing it. Inflation is the great excuse to increase profit margins

www.irishexaminer.com

I haven't read the others that you have carefully and selectively linked? But have you followed Brendan's admonition:


And maybe when you do this you could also compare them to others?

Hi Peter.

Shock jocks are out to create terror and generate trading activity. They’re purveyors of doom with no infrastructure or research resources.

Avoid them.

Investing should be boring and low turnover.

Ignore bad news.

 

[Early Riser]

Hi Peter.

Shock jocks are out to create terror and generate trading activity. They’re purveyors of doom with no infrastructure or research resources.

Hi Shock Jock,

Thanks for that caution. Not exactly groundbreaking though.

 

[Sarenco]

Just because passive has done well over recent years, that won’t necessarily be the case looking forward.

The average passively managed euro will always outperform the average actively managed euro after costs.

That will always be the case.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

The average passively managed euro will always outperform the average actively managed euro after costs.

That will always be the case.

That’s too sweeping a statement, but equally there is nuance around “average”.

It won’t “always” outperform. You cannot say that…past not being the future, etc.

There is also an excellent piece by Mohamed El Erian in today’s FT.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

 

[Salvadore]

There is no reason why he should be any better or worse than any other general financial advisory firm.

Seems odd that there wouldn’t be a range of competence within this profession (as there is in most others).

Although having watched the Madoff series on Netflix, maybe the best advice is to stick your money under the mattress.

 

[Sarenco]

It won’t “always” outperform. You cannot say that…past not being the future, etc.

Of course it will - it’s simple arithmetics.

Again, the average passively managed euro will always beat the average actively managed euro after costs.

Think about it. How could that not be the case?

Markets are a zero sum game - for every “winner” there’s a corresponding “loser”. So how could the average be either?

So it follows that the average return on a passively managed portfolio with lower costs has to be better than the average return on an actively managed portfolio with higher costs over any given time period.

 

[Always Learning]

Just because passive has done well over recent years, that won’t necessarily be the case looking forward.

What’s the US relative to the world, 65-70%?

Is that an approach that will work for a Euro based investor?

Is it risky?

Suppose it's all risky to an extent, I certainly don't know the answers. Best I can do is try to take an educated guess (I still need the education but that's what I'm depending on the experts for) with a diversifed approach, put the money in and hope for the best!

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Seems odd that there wouldn’t be a range of competence within this profession (as there is in most others).

Good point Salvadore

What I was trying to articulate is that there is nothing about them which would make them especially good or especially bad.

They might be very bad in selling actively managed funds and charging high fees.
They might be very good in giving good general financial advice and charging low fees.

If you want to maximise you chances of getting a good advisor, go to a Certified Financial Planner.

 

[galway_blow_in]

I would be very wary of dealing with a smaller provider like that.

I put people like Peter Brown and Paul Sommerville in similar buckets, i.e. shock jocks with some media profile who terrify investors and get airtime with their regular predictions of doom in markets.

It drives the worst kind of investor behaviours.

I give people like that zero credit for anything they’ve said about inflation or tech stocks over the last two years because they’ve been saying the same thing for the last 10 years!

Well Somerville is not that similar to Brown, Sommerville is a permabear

Brown never struck me as particularly insightful, he’s no Mohamed el Arian

 

[Always Learning]

Well I met with them again today and decided to give them a go. Come back to me in 5 years and I'll let you know how it's going!