Asset allocation in a US stock market bubble

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Notwithstanding the fact that US indices were well overpriced anyway, the speed of the drop the last few days has been impressive.

I'll admit to moving my pension out of the Nasdaq 100 a few days earlier than planned in response. As mentioned elsewhere I'm moving it to Berkshire with a different provider- that decision was purely on the numbers and my analysis thereof, but was moved forward a little in response to the current carnage.

mmclo said:
This time is definitely different
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Four most dangerous words in investment....
 
BIG-notorious said:
pension out of the Nasdaq 100 a few days earlier than planned in response
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Fair play for successfully timing the market, which gets lots of boos on AAM.

I believe taking action at times when it seems obvious there will be a downward turn is both possible and wise - aka timing the market.
 
jim said:
Fair play for successfully timing the market, which gets lots of boos on AAM.
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Meh.

Once I'd made the decision to move providers and investment i made the consequent decision to pull the trigger straight away. No point waiting to implement a decision made in my opinion. It'll take a week or two to flush through the systems of two providers. If it could be done faster I'd be back in the market faster.

The timing is pretty 99% coincidental- if it wasn't today because there's blood on the floor it'd be Monday because that's when i was planning to do it anyway.

I might save 5 or 10% over the next week or two. I might lose it. It might make no difference. Win, lose or draw it's a matter of luck rather than skill re timing.
 
Theres luck but theres also taking action armed with knowledge. If you know theres tarriffs comming and itll impact markets why not move pension to cash temporarilly. Of course its timing and of course youll need to time getting back in but if youre lucky and its done promptly youll avoid some of the drop.
 
jim said:
Theres luck but theres also taking action armed with knowledge. If you know theres tarriffs comming and itll impact markets why not move pension to cash temporarilly.
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In terms of timing the market there were quite a few people on here in recent weeks talking about diverting funds towards Europe and developing markets, both of which are also suffering sharp falls. It is easy to say in hindsight that pensions should have temporarily been moved to cash, not many were saying that at the time.
It still holds that long term euro cost averaging into a global equity based fund is the way to go for most of us. Im looking forward to my monthly purchase as I will be getting better value than last month. Granted it is likely to get cheaper again next month but overall I am happy to stick to that strategy.
 
jim said:
Youd think that but since the announcement the markets have gone down a lot.
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Theyll go down even further when the EU announce their tarriffs, this will be death by a thousand cuts.
Sadly blew my available cash when I thought markets were recovering....caught the proverbial knife.
 
Bagman said:
In terms of timing the market there were quite a few people on here in recent weeks talking about diverting funds towards Europe and developing markets, both of which are also suffering sharp falls.
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Yes everything is down big today because China has retaliated against the Trump tariffs so this is real. However over the last decade european and rest of world stocks have been cast aside as everyone was buying into the US tech boom . Same thing happened in 2001 crash first the tech stocks got sold off then as the panic hits then everything gets sold but when the dust settles the market had pivoted to those european and rest of world stocks but tech stayed in downturn for rest of the decade. The big US tech companies are where the retaliatory tariffs by Europe etc will be focussed so the US markets are where all the air is.
 
I'd say there are a lot of tech workers with decent amount of shares through their employers which they've been awarded over the years who are seriously unhappy with trump, I certainly would be
 
There seems to have only been 3 previous occasions where the S&P has fallen more than 10% in two days,

Black Monday, 1987
Financial Crisis, 2008
Covid-19, 2020

So Trump Tarrif plan has more than exceeded expectations

Another fun fact (sourced from FT)

Analysing the S&P 500’s almost 24,500 trading sessions starting in 1928 leading up to Thursday’s drop, there have been 155 trading days when the index has dropped at least 4 per cent. In 16 of those instances the index has followed up with another 4-plus per cent drop.

So last two days are very rare for sure
 
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I'm beginning to think my committed conspiracy theorist neighbor might be on to something this past few years, " Trump is deliberately crashing the market in order to push through a totally controlled oligarchy and rob the middle class, this cannot be explained by stupidity"
 
The trouble now is that one of buffet's principle of buying great companies when they are on sale doesn't really work when the political environment is all up in a heap , Alibaba became a toxic stock for several years due to Chinese government interference

Trump is going to make otherwise undervalued dynamic companies uninvestable, it's an unprecedented situation in that regard, Wall St always knew that the government was supportive during every previous crisis, this time it's the government who are the core problem

I hope I'm wrong and I'm mostly in Irish stocks anyway but I think we can easily drop a further 10% next week, Trump wants the Fed to cut rates and a dropping market increases that possibility, he's not going to cave in
 
galway_blow_in said:
I'm beginning to think my committed conspiracy theorist neighbor might be on to something this past few years, " Trump is deliberately crashing the market in order to push through a totally controlled oligarchy and rob the middle class, this cannot be explained by stupidity"
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It all becomes clearer when you accept that all the ideas for the crazy conspiracy theory stuff they come up basically comes from what they’re trying to get away with themselves.

I call this the Great Conspiracy Theory Inception Theory!! :p
 
I don't follow?, the theory of the " great reset" is that the wealth of the middle class is being destroyed in order to destroy democracy and usher in a global government with oligarchs in charge
 
galway_blow_in said:
I hope I'm wrong and I'm mostly in Irish stocks anyway but I think we can easily drop a further 10% next week, Trump wants the Fed to cut rates and a dropping market increases that possibility, he's not going to cave in
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well tariffs are inflationary they push up prices so that doesn't allow the fed to reduce interest rates, the stagflation of 1970s did not result in fed lowering interest rates. This time the onus and pressure will be on Trump and the republicans as they caused this not the fed. The fed had to respond to the dot com crash, financial crash and covid because they were external shocks and deflationary not inflationary and not a self inflicted impaling, Trump has more in common with fanatical suicide bombers who will sacrifice themselves just to hurt their "foe and friend alike". I heard Jim Cramer a Trump supporter saying how Trump did a really stupid thing with the tariffs and the stupid chart. It wasn't so much the tariffs but that they made no sense because he still inflicted them even if countries were removing US tariffs.
 
Joe sod , Jim Cramer said on CNBC yesterday

" I don't think they are deliberately tanking the market"

This was a cryptic warning for the small guy ,the tech Bros like bezos and Zuckerberg gathered in Washington a number of months ago for Trump's inauguration, they were informed what was about to happen

Trump is too easily dismissed as being stupid, this isn't stupidity,it's part of the plan
 
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