Asset allocation in a US stock market bubble

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I dunno much about conspiracy theories but I'd be worried about trumps ego and plans to dismantle democracy in the US (I'm less sure the checks and balances are working)

However I certainly plan to diversify away from us equities when I increase allocation to equities over the coming months. Current thinking is ill follow Warren buffet and buy shares in some of the japanese trading houses and ill be very selective of the us companies I buy
 
Cameo said:
Current thinking is ill follow Warren buffet and buy shares in some of the japanese trading houses and ill be very selective of the us companies I buy
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I'm just going all in on Berkshire Hathaway. Saves effort.

The fact that they have a few hundred billion dollars available to spend and they're arguably the best buyers in the business is also persuasive. If anyone is in a position to exploit the situation BH is.

It's a pain having to switch providers etc for my pension. And the Nasdaq 100 has been more than good to me the last 5 years. But my long term strategy has always been following the data and that's what the data is telling me after doing more detailed analysis. Timing is coincidental but possibly fortuitous.
 
I can buy individual shares in my main pension arrangement but would be tempted to just buy Berkshire too if it gets cheap enough. However it does have a lot of exposure to the us, so I'd still.be thinking of Japanese shares (JPY is low too so some so might get benefit of some currency appreciation too).
 
BIG-notorious said:
I'm just going all in on Berkshire Hathaway. Saves effort.
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This seems to be a common strategy recently and I have seen it recommended on this website and elsewhere numerous times in the past few months. If this is followed by many investors worldwide is there not a danger that Berkshire will turn into a bubble, if it hasn't already?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-intrinsic-value-stock-buffett-69d5ac61
This article outlines how it has been estimated that Berkshire was trading very close to intrinsic value earlier this year compared to a 20% reduction last year.

@BIG-notorious - Bearing in mind the complexity of estimating the intrinsic value, along with recent fluctuations I would recommend caution in taking such a lazy approach.
 
galway_blow_in said:
This was a cryptic warning for the small guy ,the tech Bros like bezos and Zuckerberg gathered in Washington a number of months ago for Trump's inauguration, they were informed what was about to happen
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their share prices are both down 20% in a month way more than the market, I doubt they were in on that part of the "plan", for what its worth neither was Trump. The only reason Tim Cook and Zuckerberg were at inauguration was in the hope of keeping Trump onside but he has since wandered off the reservation .
If he was such a strategic genius how is his Ukraine war peace deal and Gaza peace deal looking now, Bring back Sleepy Joe
 
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It's quite amazing - in a horror show kind of way - that #1, a person like Trump can get elected in a country like the USA and 2, that this one person can effectively destroy the economies of many countries in one day.

Maybe the US political system will change to prevent such a recurrence in the future?


I suspect the republican party will be annihilated in the mid-terms if this plays out as many expect and if so, Trump will be a lame duck president for his final 2 years. That's if he gets that far.

Vance almost seems a moderate after this.


Democrats seems to have no voice whatsoever on this
 
peemac said:
I suspect the republican party will be annihilated in the mid-terms if this plays out as many expect and if so, Trump will be a lame duck president for his final 2 years.
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I do not share your prediction. The Trump voter base are all in 'batten down the hatches / buy beans and shotguns' mode - albeit they will be poorer and are already feeling the pain. There's enough people there who think this (short)term pain is necessary for the goal of making America Great Again.
But will see. I hope you are right.
 
newirishman said:
I do not share your prediction. The Trump voter base are all in 'batten down the hatches / buy beans and shotguns' mode
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Hardcore magas would still vote for him if he took everything away - a little like the Russian solider analogy "you are doing this for your country"

But that floating 5%-10% will turn against him
 
but Trump didn't get elected by the Trump voter base he got elected by the middle ground that swung enough for him, many have shares etc much more than in this country so will be feeling the pain immediately, Trump can't afford to keep on this road for long if stocks keep tanking in the next few weeks. There is alot of bravado talk etc about having performed "the operation" but the patient was already healthy they performed a botched ceremonial circumcision that wasn't necessary because of some silly religious type beliefs.
Trump took on a guy called Peter Navarro a tariff guru after reading a book that was given to him by Jared Kushner, these are not intellectual heavy weights, these are guys normally on the fringes but now they are shaping american economic policy.
Possibly a guy that could really be a good choice for democrats is Tim Waltz , he is well able to ridicule Trump and the republicans, elon musk was aggrieved that he was mocking the collapse in Tesla share price recently
 
Guys

Before you post, look at the thread title. Ask yourself if your post is directly relevant and if not, don't post.

It doesn't matter if other posts have been off topic - don't add to it.

Brendan
 
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