A good time to buy bank shares?

From someone is is hundereds of miles from a degree in economics and likes to gamble & dabble a bit in the market.
I was thinking about throwing a few euros in AIB.
Can anyone explain to me what AIB on NYSE is $9.63 (>7eu) which i can buy via my US ameritrade a/c and on ISEQ (eu3.20)...obviously looks like 3:1 or is there another explaination ( i preume they track eachother).
Cheaper fees with the US, thats what made me look it up there.
 
Indeed excellent post by Marc

Probably one of the most educational posts ive ever seen
Keep it up!
 
beekeeper said:
Hi Nukenelly,

I have been a professional trader for 15 years and there are 2 key sayings that you should bear in mind in markets such as these:

1) The trend is your friend - the trend is down at the moment and because the market has fallen so dramatically when it does turn back up there will be plent of oportunities to get on board ..

2) Dont try to catch a falling boulder ..

In my opinion, there is a very good chance of a complete change in the Irish banking landscape in the next 6 to 12 months. The govt didnt bail out the banks without somekind of strategy to tighten up the ship. The only way to tighten up the ship is to have less banks, whether this is through failures, mergers or acquisitions.

If you have a few quid to spare look for oportunities outside of the banking world, as i feel one or 2 banks will be "worthless". There are and will be plenty of companies/sectors that will prosper from all this carnage. Therein lies your oportunity !!

Good luck
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Go for McDonalds & Ryanair! Cheap and cheerful, their profits will rise and the price/earnings ratio merchants will see to it that they get overvalued throughout the recession.

Bank shares are very low because of the high chance of them being nationalised or, more likely, having to make a rights issue.

To throw in another cliche,

When the shoe shine boy is quoting Warren Buffet, then Warren Buffet if f***ed!
 
Marc said:
Two factors have a proven scientific effect on the cost of capital for any company

1) The size of the company - a small company has a higher cost of capital than a big company and therefore investors expect and require a higher investment return to compensate them for the higher risk
2) The value of a company as measured by book to market. Ie the value of the company as measured by the accountants divided by the market value. A company with a high book to market value has a higher expected return than a company with a low book to market value.
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3) PEAD http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_earnings_announcement_drift

4) Momentum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_(finance))
 
bank shares will underperform for the forseeable future. they are reducing risk and will have govt people on the boards. this will ensure that risky lending wont go on. as much as we hate the way the markets have crashed due to the bad practises by the banks, its these lending practises that also leads to booms. this wont be allowed for a long time again so the banks profits will be reduced for a long time
 
I dont understand when people speak of investing in banks why they are so narrow minded that they only consider Irish banks. If you cant come up with a reason why investing in Irish banks is better than investing in banks with a more global business e.g Citibank etc then shouldnt you go do some homework first ?
 
I dont want to speculate on the Irish Property market but many people believe that property market has crashed , when it in fact has not.

The real crash is yet to come ( dont forget the prices rose 360% in 10 years so 30-40 falls is only the beginning ).

So for that reason and that reason alone, i would not advise anyone to buy into Irish Banking stocks.
 
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