88% of those in MARP offered an arrangement

[Brendan Burgess]

[broken link removed]



This implies that 19,519 borrowers were classified as unsustainable - i.e. they were not offered an ARA.

I had estimated that around 90% of those who engage with their lender get an alternative repayment arrangement.

These figures show that, while 90% get the offer, only 73% accept it.

I wonder what happens the 24,000 or so who have engaged, who were offered an ARA, but refused it? I suppose that they are still paying what they can.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

On reflection, I don't understand the Central Bank's figures and have sent them this email:

Yesterday, you said that 120,384 borrowers had accepted an Alternative Repayment Arrangement in 2014 and 2015.



But according to the Quarterly Arrears figures:

Accounts restructured at end of 2013: 84,053

Accounts restructured at end of 2015: 120,739

Total accounts restructured during 2014 and 2015: 36,686

Estimated borrowers restructured during 2014 and 2015: 30,000 ( 36,686/1.2)

Some of those who accepted an ARA in 2014 and 2015 were not in arrears, but the vast majority were.

So where are the other 90,000 borrowers?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I have finally got an answer to this question from the Central Bank.

The 120,000 borrowers who accepted an ARA includes first time restructures and borrowers who were already in ARAs being offered a different ARA.

So the figures look something like this:

Borrowers in restructuring arrangements at 31 Dec 2013 [ 84,053 accounts]
Less borrowers whose arrangements expired and were not renewed
Plus first time restructures
=Borrowers in restructuring arrangements at 31 Dec 2015 [120,739 accounts]

We don't know, but it's probably something like:
40,000 first-time restructures
+80,000 existing restructures
=120,000 borrowers offered a restructure during the two years.

Brendan